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ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

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201–210 of 251 posts

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uncertain long-term career prospects that depend on a single employer. If you pay enough to make long-term prospects irrelevant, you may end up attracting the wrong kind of people. People who can't be trained do the job well enough, or people who will quit after earning enough. And you may end up losing your existing employees. They may quit if they don't get paid as much as the new hires, or they may FIRE if they do…

How come FAANG companies don't have this same problem of people quitting after earning enough? They get paid much more, even without taking on the risk of being tied to a single employer. The answer is that some people do quit and retire early, but even more are attracted to that career like moths to a flame, and work until they can't. I do think they should raise pay for their existing employees at the same time. In…

It's a more diverse industry with many companies and many types of jobs. If you don't like one job, you can quit and try another. Which people tend to do multiple times in their careers.

Software industry has always been plagued by attrition. Some companies pay well and mostly employ younger people. Older employees eventually filter out, either because they have already earned enough and prefer better work-life balance, or due to ageism. And then there are occasional downturns, where many people lose their jobs, can't find new ones, and end up leaving the industry permanently.

People generally prefer careers with multiple viable employers. Not just in the world, but also in the same metro area. That way you are less likely to get stuck in a job you don't like. But if you are an employer with unique requirements. Of skills that take years to learn and that people are not likely to acquire on their own. Then you may need to pay ridiculous money (more like AI than FAANG) to substantially widen your talent pipeline. And if you pay ridiculous money, you risk ridiculous consequences.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).

Right but if you dont say how long it will take them, youre not really saying anything.

5 years China 5 years Japan 10 years Korea

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does seem like the USG should fund a few $10B to build out the alternative stack, given the strategic sensitivity. Best time to have started would have been 20y ago, second best is today. This is small change in the military budget.

The US Government made ASML dominant when it allowed it to acquire (US Company) Cymer, Inc.- the company that was best in the world at the time at EUV. Merging Cymer's EUV work with ASML's meticulous perfection and delivery of the entire rest of the system is what made them the only vendor that matters for semiconductor manufacturers. This acquisition is also what gives the US Government the ability to veto customers…

TIL! I had assumed that veto was purely diplomatic muscle.

That seems like a potentially very cunning soft takeover, in that case.

Still, I think onshoring is strategically wise in a world where the US is actively antagonizing the EU.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How come FAANG companies don't have this same problem of people quitting after earning enough? They get paid much more, even without taking on the risk of being tied to a single employer. The answer is that some people do quit and retire early, but even more are attracted to that career like moths to a flame, and work until they can't. I do think they should raise pay for their existing employees at the same time. In…

It's a more diverse industry with many companies and many types of jobs. If you don't like one job, you can quit and try another. Which people tend to do multiple times in their careers. Software industry has always been plagued by attrition. Some companies pay well and mostly employ younger people. Older employees eventually filter out, either because they have already earned enough and prefer better work-life balan…

It sounds like you're arguing that Zeiss needs to pay even more than FAANG to succeed in attracting people to work for them, which is a point that I agree with.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#205
post #180
post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

Is the quant competitor Renaissance? The Medallion Fund?

No, not Rentech. While Rentech is truly marvelous, it has been around for a while. There is a new kid in town, and this kid is very very good. To the point that it drove out other veteran shops out of the same market it traded.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#206
post #133

I have an interesting discussion with a senior colleague: why ASML? why are they by far the best? Their competitors are a few generations behind. The colleague claimed that there is no special magic. It's not that ASML is using some otherwise unknown laws of physics nor is any single step or component particularly special or novel. It's just that they meticulously optimized each step, and the sum of such steps is the…

The best explanation as to why ASML is so dominant is that they have locked out the best suppliers by signing exclusivity deals with them. If you want to compete with ASML you have to vertically build: the best lenses, the best lasers, the best metrology. A new entrant would need to replace ten different world-class vendors simultaneously. Unlike common business wisdom that dictates having multiple suppliers to mitig…

Interesting. This observation only reinforces the hypothesis that my colleague had. Well optimized components procured with exclusivity.

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#207
post #82

Is the ASML machine actually the world's most complex machine under some metric, or is this a claim that someone made up? I.e., did someone actually compare the ASML machine to the Space Shuttle, LHC, Internet, and so forth and show that it is more complex under some definition? (I've done various historical questions, so I'm sensitive to how statements are sourced.) An orthogonal question is what makes sense as a me…

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Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#208
post #108

ASML are not the chokepoint for chips. Zeiss are. ASML can hire more engineers and build more machines. Zeiss cannot hire more mirror grinders. And noone wants to train as one.

I believe there would be plenty of people in China up to the grinding job

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#209

It is unavoidable that, at some point, China will have its own matching or better machine because they obviously how incredibly strategically important it is.

That question is discussed in the article. “Retaining the best workers is especially crucial in an area like photolithography, where a huge amount of tacit knowledge is used to assemble its machines. An ASML engineer once told He Rongming, the founder of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment, one of China’s top ASML competitors, that the company wouldn’t be able to replicate ASML’s products even if it had the blueprin…

Apparently China had a prototype EUV source working in 2025 (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh... )

Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Carl Zeiss Meditec /= Carl Zeiss. $AFX is the publicly traded non-semis division. Carl Zeiss AG is the parent company which is private

Correct. Funny enough though, their corporate structure and the name AG means they do have stocks, but they are not traded and 100% privately owned. For some reason I see this often with German companies, e.g. the German railway. Not sure why that is, although for the railway plausible since they are owned by the state that might eventually want to sell parts of it.

AFAIK that’s how incorporated companies work in Europe.

Here in Sweden we have A LOT of companies own and operated by state and local government and they’re all “aktiebolag” which literally translates to “stock companies”. For smaller businesses you can register as a sole proprietor and some other odd structures if you are a group of people. You’ll often see the same thing for non-profits as well.

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