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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#441

Post by corford »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #224

This is the US trying to salvage the petrodollar. They want those t-bills and oil priced in dollars to maintain reserve currency status, but the whole world is divesting anyway. UAE is hoping that by leaving OPEC they can continue to do business and get protection from US. But US isn't gonna risk a larger war just to defend UAE, US has plenty of oil to exploit in Venezuela and at home. So UAE is just kinda screwed, a…

Coincidently, FTAV posted a good "petrodollar" article today for anyone interested (article is free but might need a free account to read it): https://www.ft.com/content/a65efb54-306b-49ad-9920-40d59b195...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#442

Post by downrightmike »

ch4s3 wrote: post #151
cmiles8 wrote: post #132

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy. This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dyna…

I think the initial crack was ousting Maduro in Venezuela. Since OPEC exempts Venezuela from production caps, it gives the US government a lever on non US production.

2017 when Venezuela accepted RMB for oil and then USDT crypto. USDT is being used to skirt the US's control of the oil and bypassing the dollar.

The ships passing through the straight now are also paying Iran in RMB and crypto.

The petrodollar is the objective.

This isn't over any time soon

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#443

Post by samschooler »

nakedrobot2 wrote: post #423
Raed667 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Johnny Harris has a pretty decent video on the topic as well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsO-rULEfrk

Johnny Harris is astoundingly wrong about most things, so I'll skip it thanks

Do you have a reputable sources to back up your claims here? Johnny cites sources pretty consistently.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#444

Post by perpetualpear »

ceejayoz wrote: post #429
perpetualpear wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 2 million muslim, mostly arab, citizens who are officially and legally equal to jews. They are distinct from the arabs in Gaza or the west bank, who are not citizens.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Penalty_for_Terrorists_L... > The law imposes the death penalty on persons convicted of fatal terrorist attacks. In military courts, the death penalty is the "default"; only Palestinians are tried. In civilian courts, both Israelis and Palestinians are tried, but the law applies only to those who "'intentionally cause the death of a person with the aim of denying the existence of t…

I don't think I implied they are not discriminated. But they do, generally, enjoy the same rights. I just thought to correct what I perceive as factually incorrect.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#445

Post by appointment »

missingua wrote: post #213
Cyph0n wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes?

Every ~10 year or so. As opposed to the locals who experience it daily, either war or the conflicts-between-wars.

The US has been doing air strikes in the Middle East on a regular basis since ~1990, and they extensively support the military adventures of allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#446

Post by jjfoooo4 »

ericmay wrote: post #385
toraway wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They were always in harm's way. The war could have waited, and Iran could have doubled or tripled its missile stockpile and then they really would have been in harm's way. I keep hearing this line defending US intervention but it doesn't really make sense. Iran was not threatening shipping traffic in the strait regardless of how many missiles they stocked up until they were forced to do so as an asymmetric warfare…

> I keep hearing this line defending US intervention but it doesn't really make sense. Iran was not threatening shipping traffic in the strait regardless of how many missiles they stocked up until they were forced to do so as an asymmetric warfare response to an attack by a superior military. Why would they threaten to do so prior to being ready? Have you ever played a strategy game where you build up your forces for…

> Of course, this then introduces the circular reasoning "because of a potential US attack", but of course if Iran wasn't funding Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis

I think the first step of thinking about war objectively is to consider how each side sees it. The US POV is no less circular, from Iran’s perspective - they could list any number of provocations from the US to justify arming themselves, none more obvious than the war itself.

The debate around who started the hostility is ultimately pointless, the question is what to do about. Ideally the answer isn’t “arm for obliteration because the other side started it”

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#447

Post by corford »

contingencies wrote: post #291

What's a good investment vehicle for broader energy transition?

There are quite a few "clean energy" ETFs (e.g. GRID, PBD, ICLN). There are nuclear/uranium themed ones too. No comment/view on whether any of those are good or not.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#448

Post by markdown »

wolvoleo wrote: post #417
bobthepanda wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE is in a tough spot because while they have diversified from oil, the industries they have diversified into like tourism, air travel and banking, were relying on a halo of safety that turns out to not exist.

Also, for tourism they aren't exactly welcoming to western culture. They don't even allow trans or non binary people (X) to transit to other places at dubai or abu dhabi. Can't have your cake and eat it.

While true, that doesn't really factor into this given that that market is so small that they don't lose anything by banning things that aren't compatible with their values.

So no, they most definitely can have their cake and eat it, and have done so for over two decades.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#449

Post by nostrademons »

downrightmike wrote: post #440
nostrademons wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh if the U.S. gets into a forever war with Iran the same way we did with Iraq and Afghanistan and Vietnam (or like how Russia got into one with Afghanistan and Ukraine), the climate crisis is solved. Five years of the Straight of Hormuz being closed and everybody will be using EVs. Legislation isn't going to work. Economics isn't going to work. War - which cuts off the flow of petroleum because nobody is willing to…

80% of the world's oil is not going through the straight at all. 5 years is still optimistic. Esp if we are starting wars to pump up the futures market

Doesn't take a huge decrease in production to result in a huge increase in price, due to inelasticity in demand.

Renewables and EVs are a capital-intensive industry, and the thing about capital-intensive industries is that they're prone to bubbles. If you get a year or so of EVs being cheaper than gas cars, you will see a huge growth in sales as lots of consumers make the rational choice all at once. The spike in sales will spur a bubble in capital investment as investors all rush to capitalize on it. The capital investment spurs R&D, which results in technological improvements which make the cost advantage permanent.

At the end of the 5 years (or perhaps even before) the price of oil will crash back down, probably lower than it is now, as increased EV adoption destroys demand more than supply was choked off. But at that point we'll all own EVs, they will cost less than gas cars, there will be chargers everywhere, there will be solar panels everywhere, and we'll have better batteries and V2H charging.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#450

Post by ceejayoz »

perpetualpear wrote: post #444
ceejayoz wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_Penalty_for_Terrorists_L... > The law imposes the death penalty on persons convicted of fatal terrorist attacks. In military courts, the death penalty is the "default"; only Palestinians are tried. In civilian courts, both Israelis and Palestinians are tried, but the law applies only to those who "'intentionally cause the death of a person with the aim of denying the existence of t…

I don't think I implied they are not discriminated. But they do, generally, enjoy the same rights. I just thought to correct what I perceive as factually incorrect.

These are explicit government actions, not random civilians doing discrimination.
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