UAE to leave OPEC • Hacker News Board

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#21

Post by infecto » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC

voidfunc wrote: post #11

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?

No expert but I always got the impression Oman was a neutral party. They help run the Hormuz with Iran but largely neutral in world politics.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#22

Post by mywittyname » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC

voidfunc wrote: post #11

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?

They do, it's only like 1-2 million barrels a day in capacity right now.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#23

Post by DrProtic » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC

I see this as a temporary action to contain oil prices, orchestrated by the US.

I expect UAE to send signals that they will increase production considerably once situation allows.

Whenever oil prices surge or 10Y yield touches 4.4% we get some action to contain them.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#24

Post by coffeebeqn » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:36 PM UTC

voidfunc wrote: post #11

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?

It also looks fairly easy to mine/blockade outside of their territorial waters. You don’t need that many drones to make the whole area unusable for marine transport. The strait is the clearest choke point but I don’t know how much bypassing it would help UAE

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#25

Post by weard_beard » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:36 PM UTC

voidfunc wrote: post #11

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?

Oman is the Switzerland of the Middle East.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#26

Post by redwood » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC

smt88 wrote: post #10

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

Hormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.

I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#27

Post by bawolff » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

> My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC?

Does OPEC limit that? It would be very surprising to me if they did, as the point of opec is only to limit production when oil prices are low. They aren't low right now.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#28

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:37 PM UTC

rigonkulous wrote: post #18

smt88 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.

The US is bombing cities.

[deleted]

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#29

Post by cj » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC

eykanal wrote: post #9

Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.

My understanding is basically that OPEC is similar to a workers union. Countries band together and set terms that dictate the price and the supply available in the market.

UAE leaving OPEC is like breaking up a workers union. UAE is no longer required to restrict how much oil it exports, and also doesn't have to set a price floor. They're allowed to sell more oil cheaper, potentially at the expense of neighboring OPEC countries.

Which to me sounds like a good thing for the rest of the world?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#30

Post by cess11 » Tue, Apr 28, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC

eykanal wrote: post #9

Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.

The very short explanation is that they kind of want to be not-Saud and has trouble cooperating with Saudi Arabia for a rather long time, not just over fossil fuels but also in Yemen.

Recently the UAE faction in Yemen was forcefully reined in by the house of Saud, and OPEC kind of prioritises different things than the UAE, i.e. not pushing profits hard in the short to medium term instead focusing on stability and predictability.

Currently the saudis are trying to resolve the Hormuz issue and the attack on Iran through diplomacy, which the UAE is not exactly fond of and would rather see a violent solution. In part this is coloured by the close relation between the UAE and Israel, both of which share the view that running militant factions in failed states is preferable to orderly international relations between sovereigns. The saudis aren't as keen on this type of foreign policy and in other aspects also not as friendly with Israel as the UAE.

The UAE has been signaling that they don't really want to be a part of OPEC since at least 2020 or so. Them actually leaving was to be expected, the question should have been 'when' rather than 'if'. Iranian retaliations on the UAE and subsequent damage to the reputation of mainly Dubai and Abu Dhabi as well as capital flight probably strengthened the UAE politicians longing to get out of OPEC and start pumping and selling at full capacity to try and make as much money as possible as fast as possible.

If the UAE does not do this it'll be more exposed to credit and currencies besides the US dollar, which they probably find rather inconvenient.