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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#581
post #88

This gives OpenAI the ability to goto AWS instead of exclusively on Azure. I guess Azure really is hanging on by a thread. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47616242

OpenAI's thirst for compute probably can't be satisfied by one cloud provider, if at all.

But OpenAI had announced a shift towards b2b and enterprise. It makes sense for their models to be available on the different cloud providers.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#582
post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a random token generator based on token frequency distributions with no real thought process I'm not smart enough to reduce LLMs and the entire ai effort into such simple terms but I am smart enough to see the emergence of a new kind of intelligence even when it threatens the very foundations of the industry that I work for.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

Many people struggle to differentiate between illusion and reality, these days.

There's a sucker born every minute, after all.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#583
post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a random token generator based on token frequency distributions with no real thought process I'm not smart enough to reduce LLMs and the entire ai effort into such simple terms but I am smart enough to see the emergence of a new kind of intelligence even when it threatens the very foundations of the industry that I work for.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

Right, but this electron box led to one of the largest (if not the largest) media revolution that has transformed the course of humanity in a frightening way we're still trying to grapple with.

Still saying "LLMs are autocorrect" isn't wrong, but nobody is saying "phones are just electrons and silicon" to diminish their power and influence anymore.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#584
post #575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a random token generator based on token frequency distributions with no real thought process I'm not smart enough to reduce LLMs and the entire ai effort into such simple terms but I am smart enough to see the emergence of a new kind of intelligence even when it threatens the very foundations of the industry that I work for.

Not really on topic anymore, but… I keep wondering when this discussion comes up… If I take an apple and paint it like an orange, it’s clearly not an orange. But how much would I have to change the apple for people to accept that it’s an orange? This discussion keeps coming up in all aspects of society, like (artificial) diamonds and other, more polarizing topics. It’s weird and it’s a weird discussion to have, since…

Superficially? Looks like an orange, feels like an orange, tastes like an orange. Basically it passes something like the Turing test.

Scientifically? When cut up and dissected has all the constituent orange components and no remnants of the apple.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#585
post #413

A wise man from Google said in an internal memo to the tune of: "We do not have any moat neither does anyone else." Deepseek v4 is good enough, really really good given the price it is offered at. PS: Just to be clear - even the most expensive AI models are unreliable, would make stupid mistakes and their code output MUST be reviewed carefully so Deepseek v4 is not any different either, it too is just a random token…

What a crock of bs. A brain is "just" electrochemistry and a novel is "just" arrangements of letters. The question isn't the substrate, it's what structure emerges on top of it. Anthropic's own interpretability work has surfaced internal features that look like learned concepts, planning, and something resembling goal-directed reasoning. Calling the outputs random is wrong in a specific way, the distribution is extraordinarily structured.

AI will never.... Until it does.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#586
post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a random token generator based on token frequency distributions with no real thought process I'm not smart enough to reduce LLMs and the entire ai effort into such simple terms but I am smart enough to see the emergence of a new kind of intelligence even when it threatens the very foundations of the industry that I work for.

It's an illusion of intelligence. Just like when a non technical person saw the TV for the first time, he thought these people must be living inside that box. He didn't know the 40,000 volt electron gun being bombarded on phosphorus constantly leaving the glow for few milliseconds till next pass. He thought these guys live inside that wooden box there's no other explanation.

The lost jobs and the decrease in the demand for software engineers doesn't seem like an illusion. It might come back eventually but I wouldn't bet on it.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> just a random token generator based on token frequency distributions with no real thought process I'm not smart enough to reduce LLMs and the entire ai effort into such simple terms but I am smart enough to see the emergence of a new kind of intelligence even when it threatens the very foundations of the industry that I work for.

> emergence of a new kind of intelligence Curious about your definition of these terms. Just because you are impressed by the capabilities of some tech (and rightfully so), doesn't mean it's intelligent. First time I realized what recursion can do (like solving towers of hanoi in a few lines of code), I thought it was magic. But that doesn't make it "emergence of a new kind of intelligence".

> Curious about your definition of these terms.

Likewise - I think sometimes we ascribe a mythical aura to the concept of “intelligence” because we don’t fully understand it. We should limit that aura to the concept of sentience, because if you can’t call something that can solve complex mathematical and programming problems (amongst many other things) intelligent, the word feels a bit useless.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Deepseek v4 is good enough, really really good given the price it is offered at. Do they have monthly subscriptions, or are they restricted to paying just per token? It seems to be the latter for now: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/quick_start/pricing/ Really good prices admittedly, but having predictable subscriptions is nice too!

It's indeed the latter. Psychologically harder for me than a $20/mo sub but still a better value for the money. I'm finding myself spending closer to $40-$60 a month w/ openrouter without a forced token break. Edit: it looks like it's 75% off right now which is really an incredible deal for such a high caliber frontier model.

Neat, dumb question - are the tokens you prepay for good forever, or do they expire? And do they provide any assurances or SLA's about speed? (i.e. that in a year they won't decide to dole out response tokens to you at a snail's pace)

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> emergence of a new kind of intelligence Curious about your definition of these terms. Just because you are impressed by the capabilities of some tech (and rightfully so), doesn't mean it's intelligent. First time I realized what recursion can do (like solving towers of hanoi in a few lines of code), I thought it was magic. But that doesn't make it "emergence of a new kind of intelligence".

A recent one is the RCA of a hang during PostgreSQL installation because of an unimplemented syscall (I work at a lab that deals with secure OS and sandboxes). If the search of the RCA was left to me, I would have spent 2-3 weeks sifting through the shared memory implementation within PostgeSQL but it only took me a night with the help of Opus 4.5. To me, that's intelligence and a measurable direct benefit of the too…

By that example, PostgreSQL itself is a form of intelligence relative to a physical filing system. It doesn't seem like your working definition of intelligence has a large overlap with a layman's conception of the word.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes sense though. Humans are coherent to the economy based on their ability to perform useful work. If an AI system can perform work as well as or better than any human, than with respect to "anything any human has ever been willing to pay for", it is AGI. I don't get why HN commenters find this so hard to understand. I have a sense they are being deliberately obtuse because they resent OpenAI's success.

It doesn’t though, AGI have far greater implications than doing mundane work of today. Actual AGI would self improve, that in itself would change literally every single thing of human civilization, instead we are talking about replacing white collar jobs.

An AGI that can do all that would also necessarily be able to do all white collar work. That latter definition I'd consider a "soft threshold" that would be hit before recursive self-improvement, which I imagine would happen soon after.

The current estimation on the time between this is fairly small, bottlenecked most likely by compute constraints, risk aversion, and need to implement safeguards. Metaculus puts it at about 32 months

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/time-between-weak-a...

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