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Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

bloomberg.com

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Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#251

Post by [deleted] »

bigfishrunning wrote: post #232
HWR_14 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one with a small 401k is able to invest in OpenAI/Anthropic/etc. The people investing in those companies can afford to lose their investments.

"small" 401ks are usually made up of mutual funds. Those funds are run by investment banks (think Fidelity or JP Morgan) and they *absolutely* invest in companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. Your average middle class worker has investment money tied up in these crooks, but probably indirectly. When they piss away that money, it's not just rich jerks that are holding the bag.

[deleted]

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#252

Post by VirusNewbie »

thanhhaimai wrote: post #241

Opinions are my own. I think the biggest winner of this might be Google. Virtually all the frontier AI labs use TPU. The only one that doesn't use TPU is OpenAI due to the exclusive deal with Microsoft. Given the newly launched Gen 8 TPU this month, it's likely OpenAI will contemplate using TPU too.

OpenAI uses GCP. I don't know if they use TPUs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/openai-taps...

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#253

Post by ianm218 »

DrBenCarson wrote: post #218
delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #30

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

We were supposed to have AGI last summer. Obviously it is so smart that it has decided to pull a veil over our eyes and live amongst us undetected (this is a joke, if you feel your LLM is sentient, talk to a doctor)

What do you mean we were "supposed to have AGI last summer"?

People obviously have really strong opinions on AI and the hype around investments into these companies but it feels like this is giving people a pass on really low quality discourse.

This source [1] from this time last year says even lab leaders most bullish estimate was 2027.

[1]. https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to...

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#254

Post by 3form »

Barbing wrote: post #245
chaos_emergent wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I think this is more coherent than people realize. Economically relevant knowledge work is things that humans find cognitively demanding. Otherwise they wouldn't be valued in the first place. It ties the definition to economic value, which I think is the best definition that we can conjure given that AGI is otherwise highly subjective. Economically relevant work is dictated by markets, which I think is the best…

Was there a better way than setting an arbitrary $100b threshold? e.g. average cost to complete a set of representative tasks

Yeah, I'm sure there could be a better metric, if the metric's purpose was to check on the progress until the AGI target rather than doing business based on it (and so, hammering the metric to fit the shape of "realistic goal")

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#255

Post by CamperBob2 »

mort96 wrote: post #223
AntiUSAbah wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its not a statistical next word predictor. The 'predicting the next word' is the learning mechanism of the LLM which leads to a latent space which can encode higher level concepts. Basically a LLM 'understands' that much as efficient as it has to be to be able to respond in a reasonable way. A LLM doesn't predict german text or chinese language. It predicts the concept and than has a language layer outputting tokens.…

I'm sorry but the input to a model is a sequence of tokens and the output is a probability distribution of what's the most likely next token. It's a very very very fancy next token predictor but that is fundamentally what it is. I'm making the argument that this paradigm might not give rise to a general intelligence no matter how much you scale it.

It's a very very very fancy next token predictor

Yes, and unless you are prepared to rebut the argument with evidence of the supernatural, that's all there is, period. That's all we are.

So tired of the thought-terminating "stochastic parrot" argument.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#256

Post by hununu »

delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #30

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

Thank you, I just created an account and looking forward to my ice cream.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#257

Post by Avicebron »

senordevnyc wrote: post #208
PurpleRamen wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They redefined AGI to be an economical thing, so they can continue making up their stories. All that talk is really just business, no real science in the room there.

Please reveal the “scientific” definition of AGI.

When we are having serious conversations about AI rights and shutting off a model + harness was impactful as a death sentence. (I'm extremely skeptical that given the scale of computer/investment needed to produce the models we have _good as they are_ that our current llm architecture gets us there if there is even somewhere we want to go).

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#258

Post by atleastoptimal »

PurpleRamen wrote: post #94
delis-thumbs-7e wrote: post #30

It’s insane how they talk about AGI, like it was some scientifically qualifiable thing that is certain to happen any time now. When I have become the javelin Olympic Champion, I will buy a vegan ice cream to everyone with a HN account.

They redefined AGI to be an economical thing, so they can continue making up their stories. All that talk is really just business, no real science in the room there.

It makes sense though. Humans are coherent to the economy based on their ability to perform useful work. If an AI system can perform work as well as or better than any human, than with respect to "anything any human has ever been willing to pay for", it is AGI.

I don't get why HN commenters find this so hard to understand. I have a sense they are being deliberately obtuse because they resent OpenAI's success.

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#259

Post by red-iron-pine »

Fomite wrote: post #216
binary0010 wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity From: https://openai.com/charter/

All humanity will benefit, but some humanity will benefit more than others.

i am highly skeptical "all" of humanity will benefit, and many will have extreme negatives.

if you think drone targeting in Ukraine is scary now, wait until AGI is on it...

ditto for exploiting vulns via mythos

Re: Microsoft and OpenAI end their exclusive and revenue-sharing deal

#260

Post by shevy-java »

Two evil walk away. Well, is that good or bad?

I fear for the end user we'll still see more open-microslop spam. I see that daily on youtube - tons of AI generated fakes, in particular with that addictive swipe-down design (ok ok, youtube is Google but Google is also big on the AI slop train).

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