311–320 of 868 posts
Weren't there reports of Anthropic's stock trading on secondary markets at $1T valuation recently? Now Google invests at a $350B valuation. I get valuations are often times just smoke and mirrors, but this seems like a pretty big disconnect. What's going on there?
Great position to be in if you're Amazon and Google
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Such as?
>Such as? it's crazy that the experiences are still so wildly varying that we get people that use this strategy as a 'valid' gotcha. AI works for the vast majority of nowhere-near-the-edge CS work -- you know, all the stuff the majority of people have to do every day. I don't touch any kind of SQL manually anymore. I don't touch iptables or UFW. I don't touch polkit, dbus, or any other human-hostile IPC anymore. I do…
It's the same model as Uber, and I can't afford Uber most of the time anymore. It's become cost prohibitive just to take a short ride, but it used to cost like $7.
It's all fun and games until someone has to pay the bill, and these companies are losing many billions of dollars with no end in sight for the losses.
I doubt the tech and costs for the tech will improve fast enough to stop the flood of money going out, and I doubt people are going to want to pay what it really costs. That $200/month plan might not look so good when it's $2000/month, or more.
If you added up all the major AI valuations, it's apparently worth more than products Americans constantly buy and rely on for their main life. So either AI is going to be involved in every Americans life to a large degree, and paying real money for, or these valuations are insanely wrong.
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Im convinced none of these people have any training in corporate finance. For if they did they'd realise they were wasting money. I guess you gotta look busy. But the stick will come when the shareholders look at the income statement and ask... So I see an increase in operating expenses. Let me go calculate the ROIC. Hm its lower, what to do? Oh I know, lets fire the people who caused this (it wont be the C-Suite or…
Do you really think companies have started spending millions on tokens and no one from finance has been involved? You could argue that all the spending is wasted (doubtless some is), but insisting that the decision is being made in complete ignorance of financial concerns reeks of that “everyone’s dumb but me” energy.
Oh, they were involved all right. They ran their analyses and realized that the increase in Acme Corp's share price from becoming "AI-enabled" will pay for the tokens several times over. For today. They plan to be retired before tomorrow.
$40B. Numbers mean nothing anymore
Yup. You can actually buy several European airlines with that kind of money. For example, you can buy KLM Air france for less than $3B. It is a profitable business that does $30B in sales and $1B in profit. (and has been profitable since for the past 4-5 years)
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Anthropics erratic behavior is going to get Google regulated. This is "don't rock the boat" money. Google existentially needs AI for advertising.
That was precisely my thought on seeing the news. I did not know about Google's existing entanglements with anthropic, but it seemed like a clear message - Do not panic on the money, do the work.
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I feel the same until I’m reminded I’m paying Anthropic $100 every month for something that’s indispensable to me now and would probably pay a lot more. Very inelastic demand as long as competition is low at the frontier.
I pay TMobile $100 a month but they aren't worth a trillion dollars.
It is very difficult for me to see any amount of money being thrown at Anthropic as a bad idea. The amount of new revenue that I am personally able to create for my clients, using Claude models for dev, and Claude models inside the insanely agile products delivered, is astounding. If I was not currently experiencing this myself, and someone told me that this was possible, I would be calling them names.
You’re paying the subsidized cost. Those margins will shrink once the real bill comes due. I really think everyone will look back at this time as the golden area of cheap AI. We are already seeing the costs (and restrictions/limits) creep up with the Western models.
Context: a few weeks ago, Anthropic signed a deal to buy "multiple gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity" from Google and Broadcom [1]. There have been several previous deals, too. Some people call this sort of thing a "circular deal", but perhaps a better way to think of it is as a very large-scale version of vendor financing? The simple version of vendor financing is when a vendor gives a retailer time to pay f…
It could be legit, it could be a thickly veiled accounting fraud continuing the valuation inflation with fake deals that count money multiple times. Maybe a little bit of both.
Obviously it's not a perfect comparison, but you have to wonder how much of NVIDIA's income (for instance) is ultimately funded by its own money.
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What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.
Where I work: - Development velocity is very noticeably much higher across the board. Quality is not obviously worse, but it's LLM assisted, not vibe coding (except for experiments and internal tools). - Things that would have been tactically built with TypeScript are now Rust apps. - Things that would have been small Python scripts are full web apps and dashboards. - Vibe coding (with Claude Desktop, nobody is using…
It hardly seems worth it to try to iterate on design when they can just build a completely functional prototype themselves in a few hours. We're building APIs for internal users in preference to UIs, because they can build the UIs themselves and get exactly what they need for their specific use cases and then share it with whoever wants it.
We replaced an expensive, proprietary vendor product in a couple of weeks.
I have no delusions about the scale or complexity limits of these projects. They can help with large, complex systems but mostly at the margins: help with impact analysis, production support, test cases, code review. We generate a lot of code too but we're not vibe coding a new system of record and review standards have actually increased because refactoring is so much cheaper.
The fact is that ordinary businesses have a LOT of unmet demand for low stakes custom software. The ones that lean into this will not develop superpowers but I do think they will out-compete slow adopters and those companies will be forced to catch up in the next few years.
I develop presentations now by dumping a bunch of context in a folder with a template and telling Claude Cowork what I want (it does much better than web version because of its python and shell tools and it can iterate, render, review, repeat until its excellent). The copy is quite good, I rewrite less than a third of it and the style and graphics are so much better than I could do myself in many hours.
No one likes reading a bunch of vibe coded slop and cultural norms about this are still evolving; but on balance its worth it by far.