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Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#291
post #88

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two somewhat adverse contracts with Amazon and Google in short succession. suddenly model quality is back up again.

Well to a certain extent it also blunts competition, Gemini is less of a threat if their main investor is also backing Anthropic. The issue is when the pyramid scheme collapses...

[dead]

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.

Where I work: - Development velocity is very noticeably much higher across the board. Quality is not obviously worse, but it's LLM assisted, not vibe coding (except for experiments and internal tools). - Things that would have been tactically built with TypeScript are now Rust apps. - Things that would have been small Python scripts are full web apps and dashboards. - Vibe coding (with Claude Desktop, nobody is using…

> - Development velocity is very noticeably much higher across the board

It's an absolute tornado of PRs these days. Everyone making the most of these tools is effectively an engineering team lead.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a bit of workspace politics, I would need to call that guy out to tell that he is not hyper-performer, but just pushed lots of low quality code which will produce lots of negative impact in a long term. Also, I am not sure if it is trivial to implement. The code is injected into many scenarios and workflows, so replacement will be painful and risky if new solution break some edge case.

It sounds like you might have some larger process problems if someone can just inject a bunch of vibe-coded slop into critical workflows while more discerning eyes are dubious of the quality/reliability etc.

its partially/largely management problem. One of tier1 productivity metric in the group is # of LoC created by engineers, so it creates dynamics of people exchanging favors of pushing AI slop to codebase, or be labeled as low performers.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#294
post #166
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup. You can actually buy several European airlines with that kind of money. For example, you can buy KLM Air france for less than $3B. It is a profitable business that does $30B in sales and $1B in profit. (and has been profitable since for the past 4-5 years)

"$30B in sales and $1B in profit." This margin seems terrible.

4% seems reasonable, it's pretty much standard across the board in Europe (median sits around 6% if I recall correctly), not many companies can pull 10% profit. For example in Spain, major conglomerates like INDITEX have a 11%, Iberdrola has a 10%. We also don't use the same metrics and parameters as the US for profit, so the values are skewed.

That said, certain sectors like software (as in custom enterprise grade software dev) pull revenues that are much much higher sitting around 35%, but it's not that common.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.

I'm burning an insane number of tokens 8-12 hours a day for the dramatic improvement of some internal tooling at a big tech company. Using it heavily for an unannounced future project as well. I presume I'm not the only one.

I am, oddly, able to get really quite a lot of mileage out of $20/mo of OpenAI plan, and I have never encountered a usage limit. I have gotten warnings that I was close a couple times.

I wonder what I’m doing differently.

I did spend quite a bit of time, mostly manually, improving development processes such that the agent could effectively check its work. This made a difference between the agent mostly not working and mostly working. Maybe if I had instead spent gobs of money it would have worked output tooling improvements?

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is all this AI doing? People are spending 10’s to 100’s of billions and no service or technology seems better or cheaper. Everything is more expensive and worse.

Where I work: - Development velocity is very noticeably much higher across the board. Quality is not obviously worse, but it's LLM assisted, not vibe coding (except for experiments and internal tools). - Things that would have been tactically built with TypeScript are now Rust apps. - Things that would have been small Python scripts are full web apps and dashboards. - Vibe coding (with Claude Desktop, nobody is using…

Is your team measuring how much of your code is being written with claude and comparing amongst the team, like what works best in your codebase? How are you learning from each other?

I’m making a team version of my buildermark.dev open source project and trying to learn about how teams would like to use it.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do AI boosters like yourself all have the same writing style? Was the comment AI generated? It's like insane hype marketing speak. "insanely agile products delivered" like huh?

I'll trust someone who has an account since 2018 vs 71 days ago. Especially when your name already indicates you're biased.

Wym "trust"? What is there to "trust" with my comment? Huh?

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#298

I think the subtext of the last few weeks is the Anthropic was becoming severely capacity constrained (or approaching that). They seem to have had to sign two somewhat adverse contracts with Amazon and Google in short succession. suddenly model quality is back up again.

> suddenly model quality is back up again. I agree about the core motivation behind these deals, however I'm skeptical as to how "suddenly" we'll see substantial improvements. Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated. They're already over-subscribed and waiting for new data centers (and power plants)…

> Despite their size, I'd be surprised if Google or Amazon had uncommitted chunks of Anthropic-scale, top-tier AI compute sitting around waiting to be activated.

I doubt it was idle capacity. But for a chunk of equity in Anthropic I imagine they are willing to deprioritize other, possibly internal, uses. Certainly anything that's not contractually obligated could be on the chopping block.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#299
post #282

Weren't there reports of Anthropic's stock trading on secondary markets at $1T valuation recently? Now Google invests at a $350B valuation. I get valuations are often times just smoke and mirrors, but this seems like a pretty big disconnect. What's going on there?

There's always backroom negotiations going on with investments like these. Private valuations are normally hyped-up, and with the current batch of AI companies, 100x so.

I assume Anthropic said something like "We'll give you 3% of our company for $30B, since we're valued at $1T now! So cheap!", and Google immediately came back with "Hell no. We'll give you even more, $40B... but it's for 11% of the company. Take it or leave it." With all the issues they're having, what leverage does Anthropic have at that point?

Basically, Google made them an offer they couldn't refuse.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven't you seen all the layoffs? Ive been subscribed to r/layoffs for 5+ years, and since a couple of months ago, it's been crazy noisy. My hypothesis is that companies dont want to offer cheaper nor better services. Only want to cut costs and keep the revenue for investors. I other news, TQQQ is pretty high!

I'm wondering whether the layoffs are partly targeting people who haven't adapted to using AI tools, particularly those who are openly dismissive of AI-assisted work.

That’s like firing someone because he uses vim instead of VSCode. Who cares about the tools someone uses if he still does his job well?
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