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Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

bloomberg.com

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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#131

Post by Bewelge »

nostromo wrote: post #111
zaphar wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

I thought that these type of antitrust laws are in no way enforced anymore in the tech industry. And that it's been that way for decades. I mean the sheer existence of Google shows that right? What about Maps, Mail, Books... basically everything apart from Search? Why would an AI Mode as one category of Search results be any different? They're not actively promoting Gemini in those search results. They're simply augmenting it with this new tool that exists now.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#132

Post by [deleted] »

senordevnyc wrote: post #125
iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?

[deleted]

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#133

Post by klabb3 »

nostromo wrote: post #111
zaphar wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

> run afoul of antitrust laws

Now, that’s a name I haven’t heard in a long time.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#134

Post by siva7 »

bluecalm wrote: post #109

I find it crazy that Google considers Anthropic to be worth almost 10% of Google itself (350B valuation mentioned in the article). Anthropic gets traction but has no moat, no infrastructure and relatively small team working for it. I feel for 40B you can get a lot of very smart people and a lot of very good hardware to outcompete it.

25% ;)

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#135

Post by [deleted] »

pixl97 wrote: post #117
nostromo wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

>would run afoul of antitrust laws Buwahahahahahahahhahah They drop a little cash on some shitcoin the president controls and those problems go away.

[deleted]

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#136

Post by sisve »

senordevnyc wrote: post #125
iLoveOncall wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Run-rate revenue is not ARR. For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Given the fact that both Altman and Amodei are pathological liars, there's absolutely no reason to believe that Anthropic has $30B ARR.

For all we know they could have a revenue of $100 and claim a run-rate revenue of $30B. Can you explain how that’d work? What would the $30B figure be based on if they only have $100 in revenue?

As far as I understand run rate revenue is just a fancy way of saying that "the last month we had sales, and if that continues for a year we will have a AAR of 30B. meaning it's not 30B yet, but the sales numbers indicates that we get there by continue selling at the current speed. But to have revenue of $100 and get $30B in ARR I guess the period looked at needs to be seconds....

(Run Rate = Revenue in Period / # of Days in Period x 365)

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#137

Post by tomrod »

ordinaryradical wrote: post #46
tomrod wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was enough for me to dig much deeper into OpenAI, where before we almost exclusively used them for services with any form of SLA.

You're saying it was a turning point for you to get more embedded with them? Way to be killer robot positive, I guess...

Good call out because I was a little unclear.

Opposite of what you said. The "dig" was not retrenching to more use, but rather I evaluated what I saw them doing and have migrated our company to much better options.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#138

Post by lanthissa »

billisonline wrote: post #57
lanthissa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

googles multiple businesses and gemini isn't the largest one. anthropic is the anchor external customer of tpu's and nvidia is worth more than all of google. If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years for multiple clients the business could easily be worth as much as search, maybe more.

> If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years Why haven't they broken out yet, I wonder, if they're more efficient for inference and LLM costs are now weighted towards inference over training?

there are literally not enough tpu's on earth for them to break out, every tpu thats been made is in use, the spike in demand is recent and google has heavy competition for foundry space.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#139

Post by er2d »

Bewelge wrote: post #131
nostromo wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running AI at a loss long enough to kill the competition would run afoul of antitrust laws. Even more so since they’re bundling their AI products with their search monopoly. Although I doubt this will stop them if they think it’s advantageous…

I thought that these type of antitrust laws are in no way enforced anymore in the tech industry. And that it's been that way for decades. I mean the sheer existence of Google shows that right? What about Maps, Mail, Books... basically everything apart from Search? Why would an AI Mode as one category of Search results be any different? They're not actively promoting Gemini in those search results. They're simply augm…

Yes anti-trust is very much theatre nowadays.

As long it further's American interests globally - monopoly is fine. Other countries need to take notice and start picking winners nationally in order to compete with the large American big tech firms.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#140

Post by lanthissa »

zaphar wrote: post #69
billisonline wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years Why haven't they broken out yet, I wonder, if they're more efficient for inference and LLM costs are now weighted towards inference over training?

You essentially have to run in google to use them and that probably limits their ability to breakout. Anthropic might be doing this deal as a way to shore up their supply chain and cost of both inference and training by leveraging Google's hardware and chip manufacturing expertise.

every tpu thats been made is in use and sold at a high margin, demand is not the issue.
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