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Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

bloomberg.com

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Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#61

Post by infecto »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53
infecto wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the simpler explanation that Alpha was already an investor and Anthropic has been making strides in their business model?

> Is the simpler explanation that Alpha was already an investor Individually, yes. Anthropic surging in private markets the weekend after the supply-chain risk designation, and raising from not only Google but also Amazon in such short clip (following credibly reports of it turning down $800+ billion valuation cheques from financial investors), all while OpenAI gets pilloried in the press and struggles to hold its $8…

Please share how OpenAI is struggling in the private markets.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#62

Post by zaphar »

ordinaryradical wrote: post #59

It feels like the market is full Wiley Coyote on frontier model makers, and I like Anthropic's B2B business model. But all progress points to a commodification of foundation models--Google first named it as "we have no moat, neither does anyone else." So there must be some secondary play driving this, right? Hardware sales? Hedging for search ad revenue? Still feels mispriced. I think asset inflation leaves too much…

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#63

Post by JumpCrisscross »

infecto wrote: post #61
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is the simpler explanation that Alpha was already an investor Individually, yes. Anthropic surging in private markets the weekend after the supply-chain risk designation, and raising from not only Google but also Amazon in such short clip (following credibly reports of it turning down $800+ billion valuation cheques from financial investors), all while OpenAI gets pilloried in the press and struggles to hold its $8…

Please share how OpenAI is struggling in the private markets.

There is more supply than demand flat to OpenAI’s recent raise. That’s simply not the case for Anthropic, at last raise or at comparable valuations.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#64

Post by minimaxir »

karmasimida wrote: post #43
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

It’s pretty wild how badly Altman siding with Hegseth has backfired. (And how competently Dario has played his hand.) I don’t think that’s the ultimate cause of the turnaround in fortunes. But it strikes me, at least from the investor and potentially urban-consumer perspectives, as a pivotal moment in both companies’ fortunes.

What backfired? Ant's recent rise has little to none to do with retail subscribers, it is Claude Code with Opus 4.5+, followed by their Mythos stunt I would say the flood of $20 Claude Subscribers due to news cycle backfired on them, now everyone is getting worse outputs and exposed their shortage on compute, which they can't fix anytime soon. Pretty much everyone I know has both cc and codex now, just because how un…

I use both CC and Codex because one is not enough and 5x for $100 is too much.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#65

Post by [deleted] »

pjl0 wrote: post #29
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your TDS Wat?

DESPERATELY trying to insinuate that the only possible reason to acknowledge that many people find distasteful the association between OpenAI and the desire for autonomous killbots MUST be that people are being unfair to Trump because of mental illness.

[deleted]

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#66

Post by chris_st »

billisonline wrote: post #57
lanthissa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

googles multiple businesses and gemini isn't the largest one. anthropic is the anchor external customer of tpu's and nvidia is worth more than all of google. If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years for multiple clients the business could easily be worth as much as search, maybe more.

> If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years Why haven't they broken out yet, I wonder, if they're more efficient for inference and LLM costs are now weighted towards inference over training?

Possibly because they just haven't been able to manufacture enough of them yet to be a viable business to others? They're fighting everyone else for foundry space and time.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#67

Post by kshacker »

casey2 wrote: post #38
urba_ wrote: post #28

I consider them competitors… This reminds me of Microsoft in 1997 investing $150 million in Apple, saving it from near bankruptcy

Anthropics erratic behavior is going to get Google regulated. This is "don't rock the boat" money. Google existentially needs AI for advertising.

That was precisely my thought on seeing the news. I did not know about Google's existing entanglements with anthropic, but it seemed like a clear message - Do not panic on the money, do the work.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#68

Post by JumpCrisscross »

zaphar wrote: post #62
ordinaryradical wrote: post #59

It feels like the market is full Wiley Coyote on frontier model makers, and I like Anthropic's B2B business model. But all progress points to a commodification of foundation models--Google first named it as "we have no moat, neither does anyone else." So there must be some secondary play driving this, right? Hardware sales? Hedging for search ad revenue? Still feels mispriced. I think asset inflation leaves too much…

Google does have a sort of temporary moat. They have a much better hardware supply line story than anyone else and the revenue to maintain that edge indefinitely.

If AI is commoditising, who is Bahrain and who are the Saudis?

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#69

Post by zaphar »

billisonline wrote: post #57
lanthissa wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

googles multiple businesses and gemini isn't the largest one. anthropic is the anchor external customer of tpu's and nvidia is worth more than all of google. If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years for multiple clients the business could easily be worth as much as search, maybe more.

> If tpu's actually breakout as a viable alternative over the next few years Why haven't they broken out yet, I wonder, if they're more efficient for inference and LLM costs are now weighted towards inference over training?

You essentially have to run in google to use them and that probably limits their ability to breakout. Anthropic might be doing this deal as a way to shore up their supply chain and cost of both inference and training by leveraging Google's hardware and chip manufacturing expertise.

Re: Google plans to invest up to $40B in Anthropic

#70

Post by throwawaytea »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #56
throwawaytea wrote: post #45

If you added up all the major AI valuations, it's apparently worth more than products Americans constantly buy and rely on for their main life. So either AI is going to be involved in every Americans life to a large degree, and paying real money for, or these valuations are insanely wrong.

> it's apparently worth more than products Americans constantly buy and rely on for their main life What are you counting in this category?

There are countless examples, but let's say Ford. Worth $150 billion, $50 billion not counting debt.

My neighbors just gave Ford $60k. It'll be a while until my neighbor gives Anthropic $60k.

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