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Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

nytimes.com

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Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#11
post #9
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Although the war in Iran is very obviously justified, Wait, what now?

Can't have another North Korea sitting in the Middle East with control over so much oil supply. Don't want Gulf States to go and get nuclear weapons in response to Iran getting them (nuclear non-proliferation).

That's not the justification for the current war; the White House [0] claims that Iran's nuclear capabilities were 'obliterated' last year.

[0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2025/06/experts-agree-ir...

Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#12
post #6
post #3

If you assume that war with China is on the horizon, it's arguable that this is a good thing for the US to see weaknesses exposed now while there is still something to do about it. Even if that war (and I hope it's not) is not on the horizon, real battlefield testing in what is becoming a new battlefield of drones and smaller missiles/weapons is necessary and highly valuable. Contrast that with, for example, China wh…

> Although the war in Iran is very obviously justified, Wait, what now?

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Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#13

Spent billions on an unnecessary and ILLEGAL war that killed innocent people, American and allied soldiers, depleted your weapons, burned every ally you had in the world, created millions of enemies and potential terrorists, increased prices for your population, SO MUCH WINNING. And we have not nearly seen the end of it! Today I heard that the regime in the USA is considering PUNISHMENT for NATO allies for not joinin…

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Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#14
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't have another North Korea sitting in the Middle East with control over so much oil supply. Don't want Gulf States to go and get nuclear weapons in response to Iran getting them (nuclear non-proliferation).

That's not the justification for the current war; the White House [0] claims that Iran's nuclear capabilities were 'obliterated' last year. [0] https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2025/06/experts-agree-ir...

I'm not justifying the war on White House press releases. The additional justifications though just strengthen the need.

Separately it's a poor argument to say well Iran's nuclear capabilities were obliterated (they were certainly damaged if nothing else) therefore further attacks are unjustified when Iran could build up missile defense, missile attack, and drone capabilities and make a future incursion to stop their nuclear program impossible without extreme destruction to the Middle East and the rest of global trade.

Which, you know, was what they were actually doing. Hence the missile attacks. We just caught them before we couldn't actually do much about it without significant loss of life and equipment.

Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#16
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Although the war in Iran is very obviously justified, Wait, what now?

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I know. I think Trump should be in jail, particularly over Jan 6th. But he's currently the President and I'm not going to stoop to reality TV level analysis of global events just because I don't like the guy. If he does something that I think is good, then I think it's good. He doesn't dictate my political opinions. If he, or anyone else aligns with me, they're right. If they don't, respectfully, they're wrong. But I set those opinions and hold them.

Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#17
post #12
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Although the war in Iran is very obviously justified, Wait, what now?

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"Trump says XYZ so XYZ is bad!!!"

That might have to do with the fact that Trump is a conniving, deceitful, lying piece of shit? Just maybe.

Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#19
One of the issues that came up when Russia invaded Ukraine was that Russia just didn't have the weapons they thought they did, particularly tanks. There's been a bunch of corruption where generals have pocketed funds and just kicked the can down the street.

The US now spends $1T+ a year on war and is asking for $1.5T next year. At least half of that is weapon systems. A lot of these are probably way too expensive and because of multiple suppliers, incredibly hard to scale up. For the missile interceptors, it may take 3-5 years. Logistically, imagine if there was way more standardization of parts so this was easier to scale? A bit like the missing Russian tanks, US military procurement is corrupt. We have the weapon systems we bought but we pay way too much. So we're basically paying $1T+ for a military that can't do anything about the Iranian military. The disparity is so large that one day of sustaining the war is a good part of what the Iranian military costs for a year.

Last year it was widely rumored that the 12 day war ended because the US and Israel were running out of missile interceptors. That's kind of why many didn't expect this war to happen because that shortage was never solved [1]. It's evidence that the US expected this to be a decapitation strike like Venezuela and for it to be over in a matter of days. This problem is reportedly dire [2].

But that was never going to happen and now the US has mired itself in a war it cannot end without a humiliating defeat and withdrawal.

We don't have exact figures because of censorship but it was estimated at the start of this that ~90% of missiles were being intercepted over Israel and now that figure was ~50% before the ceasefire. Ballistic missiles and drones in particular are cheaper to produce than their respective interceptors and can be produced in much higher volume. Launchers are cheap and easy to produce.

Another telling factor in all of this is the US military's continued use of so-called "standoff" weapons. This includes Tomahawk missiles as well as precision-guided muntiions from planes. You generally don't want to use these if you can because you sacrifice ordinance for fuel. So why do you do it? Because you don't have the air superiority you need.

Those weapons too are more expensive and slow to scale up production.

It's incredibly damaging to US interests too that they've been unable and/or unwilling to defend allies and their own bases in the Gulf.

What I hope comes out of this is some pushback on why exactly we're spending $1T (or $1.5T) a year and what exactly we're getting for that. It's an unimaginable amount of money that could otherwise do so much good. Yet instead we're acting like a belligerent yet still failing empire.

[1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/world/middleeast/israel-s...

[2]: https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israeli-missile-interceptors-...

Re: Iran war has drained U.S. supplies of critical, costly weapons

#20
post #10
post #2

It's all beginning to fit together a bit too neatly. We've had 'China invades Taiwan in 2027' on the radar for a couple of years, and now Trump is disarming the US, and demonstrating it's impotence in certain areas, just in time. I think we need a new script-writer.

The China invades Taiwan fearmongering is kinda silly for two main reasons: 1. Crossing 100 miles of ocean (between mainland China and Taiwan) may as well be 10,000 miles. It's essentially impassable.. Just look at Iran, where a country that has endured decades of sanctions is impossible to invade for the largest and most wel-funded military on Earth. In Iran, the logistics of a sea landing mirror the size and comple…

> What would an invasion of Taiwan (if they could pull it off, which they can't) do to China's standing in the world, diplomatic and trade relations, etc? Think about Russia invading Ukraine. Suddenly Finland and Sweden abandon their neutrality and join NATO. The invasion has actually strengthened NATO.

This is especially true now, when the US is shooting itself in the foot over Iran, making China look like a rational and stable actor and the US like a chaotic and unreliable partner. There is no gain for China in forcibly taking over Taiwan, they will try to do it through other means over the next 10–20 years. They know that using force to take Taiwan would be the biggest gift they could give the US right now.

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