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US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

cnn.com

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Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#221

Post by lava_pidgeon »

nandomrumber wrote: post #192
wraptile wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point insider trading issue has run away so hard I don't see how it can be tamed without revolutionary frameworks. If we look at crypto then I'm not sure we want to live in a world where insider trading is normalized either so we ought to start working on these new frameworks as soon as possible but nobody seems to care.

> without revolutionary frameworks I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action. > nobody seems to care And it would seem that the masses tend to agree. We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the…

How is inside training outside of US s thing? Please give dpurces

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#223

Post by ywvcbk »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #193
herewulf wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.

I would offer a small correction to your point: Instead of "ballistic missile", I would substitute "Shahed-type drones". It is much easier to detect (and shoot down) a ballistic missile than a Shahed-type drone.

I don't think this is true at all? A ballistic missile is way harder and more expensive to shutdown (they are flying at Mach 5-10 while you can outrun that type of drone with a mid tier car on the freeway)

Shahed is very primitive in general and not hard to shot down but because its extremely cheap it can be used to overwhelm any type of air defenses. Wasting $4 million to destroy a $50k drone doesn't scale at all.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#224

Post by pavlov »

What’s the point of prediction markets?

They are just ordinary gambling unless you allow insider trading and manipulation, because that’s the only way the market can acquire and represent novel useful information.

But if you allow those things, you run into a host of well-documented problems which are the reason why those things are forbidden in other markets.

As it stands, prediction markets seem like a tech-aligned rebranding of age-old rigged gambling products.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#225

Post by fzeroracer »

nandomrumber wrote: post #192
wraptile wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point insider trading issue has run away so hard I don't see how it can be tamed without revolutionary frameworks. If we look at crypto then I'm not sure we want to live in a world where insider trading is normalized either so we ought to start working on these new frameworks as soon as possible but nobody seems to care.

> without revolutionary frameworks I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action. > nobody seems to care And it would seem that the masses tend to agree. We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the…

> Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the fat cats are so long as the general population’s standard of living doesn't go backwards too far too fast.

Well, given that people are behaving more and more violently towards said fat cats I think it's clear we're starting to reach a breaking point and people are caring. It wasn't too long ago that I saw people cheering on LinkedIn when that healthcare CEO got got, so if people are willing to put their professional profiles at risk you have to imagine it's far worse behind closed doors.

Personally I really dislike living in interesting times and greatly prefer advocating against corruption rather than letting things slide until they get a lot worse.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#226

Post by nandomrumber »

chaostheory wrote: post #208
nandomrumber wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> without revolutionary frameworks I’d argue that the level of corruption we’re seeing, not just in the USA but all over the Western world, hasn’t risen to a level that warrants revolutionary action. > nobody seems to care And it would seem that the masses tend to agree. We are much much better off tolerating this level of corruption than we would be attempting a revolution. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter how fat the…

That’s until food and energy price increases become unbearable for the masses. While the first test is already here with gas prices, we’ll have the second test soon in the form of 50% price increases on food in developed Western countries.

Where is the evidence that petrol prices are unbearable, by the metric you’re proposing.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#227

Post by jcgrillo »

testing22321 wrote: post #121
jcgrillo wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting they don't think they can get him for leaking classified information. To me that seems like the biggest issue--I mean sure, it's bad he made money on it, but it would have been really bad if he'd gotten someone killed by blabbing to the internet.

You’re just seeing, clearly, the priorities of the US. Is it helping sick citizens? No. Is it feeding the hungry? No. Free education, housing the un housed or protecting the environment? No, no , no. To be perfectly clear, it’s not giving vets the benefits they deserve or keeping soldiers safe either. Money. The priority is money. Getting it. And making sure those that don’t have it don’t get it.

God money's not looking for the cure God money's not concerned about the sick among the pure God money, let's go dancing on the backs of the bruised God money's not one to choose No, you can't take it No, you can't take it No, you can't take that away from me

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#228

Post by AlecSchueler »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #213
remus wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the parent mentioned military secrets in particular? But the insider trading is already well documented e.g. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cge0grppe3po

> the insider trading The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading. (OP said those "in DC seem to be able to do everything listed.")

> The suspect hasn't been charged with insider trading.

I think that was the point GP was making.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#229

Post by bostik »

burningChrome wrote: post #198
bostik wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless the prosecution can prove that the trades meaningfully moved the market prices, it's probably going to be really hard to use the term "leaking". I can't shake the feeling that there may be political reasons to not even attempt that angle. What legal precedent would it set if a judge actually ruled on that and the prosecution won ? Which entities within the government would be financially inconvenienced?

So in prediction markets I've heard a lot of times people will collaborate in order to make certain predictions pay off higher sums by having more people put money on a certain bet. Is it true with these markets the more people bet on a specific day and time, the value will increase more, increasing the overall payout? If that is true, I wonder if they're looking at anybody else helping place the bets or a group of p…

It's a bit more nuanced than that, because we're not talking about outright market manipulation. Absent any other information, the market makers always assume that they might be trading against a better informed counterparty - so absent any other signal, the prices at which executions happen are themselves a signal.

Think about it: you have N market makers offering both sides of the trade with a spread between them. When there is no other meaningful activity, the best prices are more or less stable. Now someone comes in and buys one side of the trade. Each marker maker will, individually, make the same two decisions:

    1. "If you bought at that price, I should raise my price and charge you more"
    2. "Since you bought at that price, I must assume you have more information and I should get out the way to avoid an expensive mistake"
The magnitude of the decisions made depends on various factors, but as a short-hand the size of the made trades in respect to the overall liquidity available near the midpoint directs how strongly the market makers react. A tiny trickle of insignificant trades does not move the price in any meaningful way (unless the sizes are so small that the execution commission starts to make a difference). A sustained directional flood of trades will cause the midpoint (and volume) to move to the direction where the market makers can sell at higher prices and avoid accumulating any further losses.

Re: US special forces soldier arrested after allegedly winning $400k on Maduro raid

#230

Post by watwut »

breppp wrote: post #190
herewulf wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine doing an easy tour in your air conditioned Kuwaiti logistics office and then getting blown to bits by a ballistic missile because no one bothered to tell you about the war that was being initiated which would cause such missiles in retaliation. Yeah, that's demoralizing too.

If you are in Kuwait you will find yourself under rockets whether you knew in advance or not I think the worse aspect is if the news of an attack being leaked to the defender and you are being blown to bits as their ballistic missiles are not decimated in their preemptive strike.

They referred to soldiers that were killed by the start of the war. They thought the situation is normal, war was started without them knowing, got killed.

Not knowing in advance was an important factor

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