This essay was written in 1946. According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Orwell_bibliography#Nov... consecutive books he published were:
* Coming Up for Air (1939)
* Animal Farm (1945)
Given the "seven years", it appears considered "Coming Up for Air" his previous novel, and "Animal Farm" not a novel. I wonder why?
In any case, the novel that he next wrote “fairly soon”, and which he predicted would be a failure, was:
* Nineteen Eighty-Four (1949)