'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet • Hacker News Board

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#31

Post by hrimfaxi » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:31 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #14

thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[flagged]

Should it be legal to be able to bet when someone will die?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#32

Post by coryrc » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #14

thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[flagged]

I'll steelman it: previously there was no monetary gain to be made by messing with weather sensors. A market like this creates one, creating an externality on owners of weather sensors, on enforcers and courts to investigate and prosecute novel crimes. Administration of taxes on such markets to compensate all the disparate factions harmed by the externalities exceeds the amount which could be collected, so banning is the only proper solution.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#33

Post by hrimfaxi » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #28

VectorLock wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certain no negative externalities from these shenanigans here, let people do what they want to do regardless of how it harms others.

[flagged]

Why do airports collect weather data at all? Just for fun?

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#34

Post by echelon » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

ambicapter wrote: post #9

> There are no indications so far that the successful punters have had to return their winnings. However, the data source for Paris’s hottest temperature has since moved to a sensor at the smaller Paris-Le Bourget airport. Here's the negative externality that no one will care about. There's no reason gamblers won't repeat this stunt, until us poor schmucks who just want an accurate temperature reading have to build a…

Just wait until they start killing people to win bets.

It's going to happen.

It'll happy by proxy too. When they figure 90% of Tesla's or SpaceX's valuation is tied to Elon, suddenly he becomes your mark.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#35

Post by logicchains » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

hrimfaxi wrote: post #31

logicchains wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Should it be legal to be able to bet when someone will die?

It's already legal for two individuals to bet when someone will die. It's illegal to murder someone; we don't need extra laws to stop that.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#36

Post by thenewnewguy » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:32 PM UTC

thimabi wrote: post #10

guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

Anything on the site? Yes. Anything at all? No - Polymarket themselves make the markets (and I think they have some partners that can make markets as well, but point is some random user cannot make a market).

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#37

Post by neonstatic » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

thimabi wrote: post #10

guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

I'm worried it will set the tone against all markets and trading, which would be very regrettable.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#38

Post by bloppe » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

hx8 wrote: post #13

guyzero wrote: post #2

I don't understand who is taking the other side of all these insane Polymarket bets. Is Polymarket doing it?

It sounds like the other side of the bet was the actual winning bet when compared to Truth. Maybe they have great climate models and actually make a bet that they have an edge on. Maybe they have a gambling problem. Either way, they are the victims here.

They are the victims of Goodhart's law. The contract unambiguously said it would be decided by the reading of that particular thermometer.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#39

Post by knappe » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #14

thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[flagged]

The article articulated this enough, I thought but I guess not.

They're interfering with officially gathered data, used to forecast the weather. And they're not just gambling. They're also gaming the system to make money on it. This goes far beyond 'just gambling'.

Re: 'Hairdryer used to trick weather sensor' to win Polymarket bet

#40

Post by aorloff » Thu, Apr 23, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

logicchains wrote: post #14

thimabi wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand why these bets are allowed at all. Can one just make an account there and bet in anything? The whole “prediction market” charade is increasingly proving to lend itself to abuse. I hope regulations catch up with it soon, otherwise more shenanigans will follow.

[flagged]

There's a reason we don't have markets to bet on whether someone will be killed, or to create a profit motive for people close to the White House to spill the beans.

There's plenty of legal avenues for the next administration to outright shut these firms down