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Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

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Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#231

Post by postalrat »

bitmasher9 wrote: post #203
postalrat wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a decade the cost of compute will be a tiny fraction of what it costs now. Specialized hardware will exist that will be cheap and efficient.

The difference in the cost of compute between 2026 and 2036 won’t be nearly as large as the difference in the cost of compute between 2016 and 2026. Even at 2016 the slowdown in improvements was noticeable. We might see a one time bump in inference when we move off GPUs onto more limited and efficient dedicated hardware, but the sustained fast pace of improvements are far behind us.

I'm predicting now that there is a clear use-case for this tech that work will (and has) accelerate specialized hardware, software, models, etc that will run much more efficiently in 10 years. So that the real token costs will be a fraction of what they are now.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#233

Post by coredog64 »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #182
Argonaut998 wrote: post #131

Does anyone feel that the jig is almost up? Surely the returns aren’t anywhere close to what investors expect with the sheer amount of cash at this point in time. Are Anthropic and OpenAI rushing to IPO for immediate cash so they can delay the inevitable? Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. We are only just now getting a taste of the “true cost” of these tokens. Then there…

> Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. I think a LOT of companies really never needed to be on the public market, and its a darn shame that so many go on the stock market, we have this obnoxious culture where you have to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding. Companies literally fire and hire x number of people every quarter…

So you're asking for some type of equity that's private?

Seriously though, I have seen some very large companies like Tibco and Dell go private for an extended period of time as a means of avoiding shareholder nonsense during restructuring.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#234

Post by nitwit005 »

stephencoyner wrote: post #223
iot_devs wrote: post #7

Someone can explain to me what's the expectations for these AI labs? I mostly see their products as commodity at this point, with strong open source contenders. Eventually it will become hard to justify the premium on these models.

Coding agents are getting deployed wall to wall in most if not all of the major tech companies. Many have no token limits - spend as much as you want as long as you have a good story to tell. Companies bake their workflows into these tools. Internal processes start to be written up around specific tools. Once something works, it gets pushed out at scale for all to copy. Anthropic hit $30B in revenue and this is just…

The company I used to work for now used to pay Oracle a lot of money. It pays $0 now, because there are free alternatives. It did take a while, but that transformation has happened across the industry.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#236

Post by gwerbin »

kgwgk wrote: post #208
giancarlostoro wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. I think a LOT of companies really never needed to be on the public market, and its a darn shame that so many go on the stock market, we have this obnoxious culture where you have to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding. Companies literally fire and hire x number of people every quarter…

> I wish there were an alternative to the stock market where you invest for the long haul, and you cannot take your money out in x number of years. That exists already! People often complain as well when a company ends its golden years because of some economic hurdle and ends up being acquired by a bigger fish who is _not_ on the stock market.

It's less about the company leaving the stock market and more about "Private Equity" often being a legalized embezzlement scam designed to suck the company dry and then dump its withered husk in bankruptcy court.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#237

Post by coredog64 »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #147
TSiege wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

latency absolutely matters? this is such a weird thing to say. for training sure, but customers absolutely want low latency

The only AI use case that cares about latency is interactive voice agents, where you ideally want <200ms response time, and 100ms of network latency kills that. For coding and batch job agents anything under 1s isn't going to matter to the user.

A customer service chatbot can require more than one LLM call per response to the point that latency anywhere in the system starts to show up as a degraded end-user experience.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#238

Post by gwerbin »

inciampati wrote: post #72
anonyfox wrote: post #69

Sounds like moneygrab is accelerating before consumer grade local models are getting good enough for local inference in few years. Huge house of cards here. Demand skyrocketing until it’s suddenly dropping entirely with ondevice inference.

I'm already living in this future. In a decent execution framework, with context management, memory via unix, and mechanisms for web search and access, local models are effectively on par with frontier ones. And they can often be much faster. I'll keep paying fees for the AI companies until they stop truly subsidizing and leading. They are getting close to the edge of utility, but we can use their services now to boo…

What setup are you using? What models, what hardware, what agent harness, etc? I have the vague sense that this is all possible right now, but the amount of tinkering required doesn't seem worth it compared to, like, just not using AI and getting stuff done the old fashioned way.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#239

Post by danieldoesbio »

intothemild wrote: post #191
danieldoesbio wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question here about the open-weight models finding the same vulnerabilities as mythos thing: is it just a matter of false negatives/positives? I’ve seen a few cases where people show other models (even opus) can find the same vulnerabilities given many passes. Is there some disadvantage to the extra passes that give the claimed Mythos performance extra value (assuming it finds them in less)?

The thing is, mythos found those with multiple passes, thousands of passes... So using thousands of passes or perhaps the same budgets, yes, cheaper open weight models could potentially (and have) found the same/similar vulnerabilities. Mythos screams of marketing hype, and nothing more. Opus 4.7 isn't really a meaningful upgrade in any sense, other than being more expensive. Once you can see what something like Qwen…

What is the failure state for a pass that doesn't find a real vulnerability? Do the models report no issues or hallucinate issues that aren't real? I'm trying to run open weight local models and finding them really impressive... Just also trying to understand the cybersecurity side of all this.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#240

Post by lelanthran »

signatoremo wrote: post #207
lelanthran wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revenue is a meaningless measure though; what's the spend:income ratio? Excluding capital investments, what's the cost of operations? At a very minimum, to repay the +$100b in investment within a reasonable timeframe, what's the minimum figure they have to bank post-tax each month?

Since when revenue is meaningless? It’s an indication of market acceptance. Anthropic has one of the most expensive plan, they didn’t undersell other models. Open weight models would otherwise dominate if cost is the only factor. Also, investment is not money in the bank. They can’t withdraw $100b tomorrow. That means they don’t have to repay until after they got the investment, which is a commitment over several yea…

> Since when revenue is meaningless?

When you're selling $10 Bill's for $1, then revenue is meaningless.

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