Someone can explain to me what's the expectations for these AI labs? I mostly see their products as commodity at this point, with strong open source contenders. Eventually it will become hard to justify the premium on these models.
Here is the thing nobody wants to say out loud or they are too dumb to realize. AI is intelligence, and intelligence has almost never been the binding constraint on productivity.
So you will get no productivity increase from the AI bubble. Yes, you read that correctly.
The test is simple, if raw brainpower were the bottleneck, you could 10x any company by hiring 200 PhDs. In practice you get 200 brilliant people writing unread memos, refactoring things that worked, and forming a committee to rename the committee. Smart has always been cheaper and more abundant than the discourse pretends.
Every real productivity revolution came from somewhere else like energy (steam, electricity), capital stock (machines that do the physical work), or coordination (railroads, shipping containers, the assembly line, the internet).
None of these raised the average IQ of the workforce, they changed what a given worker could move, reach, or coordinate with. Solow old line basically still holds. The output per worker grows when you give the worker better tools and infrastructure, not better neurons.
Meanwhile the actual bottlenecks in a modern firm are regulatory approval, legacy systems, procurement cycles, customer adoption, internal politics, and physical supply chains that don't care how clever your email was. A smart brains intern at every desk produces more artifacts, not more throughput, and in a lot of organizations, more artifacts is actively negative ROI.
Jevons does not save you either, cheaper cognition mostly means more slide decks, not more GDP.
So the setup is that models are commoditizing on one side, and on the other side a product whose core value add (more intelligence, faster) is aimed at a constraint that was never really binding. This of course a rough combo for a trillion dollar capex supercycle.
Fun for the trade, while it lasts, but there is no thesis. Just dont tell CNBC and short NVDA on time ,-)