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Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

words.filippo.io

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Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#91
post #20

On one hand I hear that quantum computers will crack factorisation and discrete logarithms, on the other that the max number factorised is 15 and that 21 might not even be feasible. What is going on?

It's LK99 all over again. A bunch of software engineers working themselves into a tizzy on X and adjacent circles despite not really knowing the physics. Combined with a lot of financial incentives for people working in the space to play things up...

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#92

I just want to comment on how clear I find Filippo Valsorda's writing on this kind of thing. Even for an old dunderhead like me, his mathematics and examples were easy to follow. I really appreciate that kind of clarity in technical writing.

Agreed. He presents the math in a way that illustrates his point without being difficult for non-mathematicians to grasp.

A lot of blogs get hung up in the math, even when it is just supporting evidence for a broader point.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#93
post #20

On one hand I hear that quantum computers will crack factorisation and discrete logarithms, on the other that the max number factorised is 15 and that 21 might not even be feasible. What is going on?

> The bet is not “are you 100% sure a CRQC [cryptographically-relevant quantum computer] will exist in 2030?”, the bet is “are you 100% sure a CRQC will NOT exist in 2030?”

— from https://words.filippo.io/crqc-timeline/ "A Cryptography Engineer’s Perspective on Quantum Computing Timelines", the OP's blog post from two weeks ago, and the first link in this one. [HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47662234]

Yes today's quantum computers cannot factor 21, but enough progress is happening fast enough that now there's a >1% chance they will go much further in (say) five years.

More broadly (outside of relevance to cryptography), quantum computers already can (almost certainly) beat classical computers on certain contrived (useless) problems: see https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.09901 "Has quantum advantage been achieved?" for a summary of the current state.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#94
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This wouldn’t help symmetric key encryption, which is what this is talking about. I agree. The point I am trying to make is that even for asymmetric encryption (which is far more vulnerable), there are still plausible ways to make a quantum break more difficult. The only thing that could compromise this scheme, aside from breaking the signing keys, would be to have TLS broken to the extent that viewing real-time tr…

> Any TLS break delayed by more than 15 minutes would be worthless. It sounds like you’re talking about breaking TLS’s key exchange? Why would this not have the usual issue of being able to decrypt recorded traffic at any time in the future? Edit: If it’s because the plaintext isn’t useful, as knorker got at in a sibling comment… I sure hope we aren’t still using classical TLS by the time requiring it to be broken in…

What you're talking about is a property called "forward secrecy". There are new techniques which have better quantum resistance for handling key exchange, but I think the point of the person you're responding to is that if you rotate keys often enough that forward secrecy may not be as essential of a property. I would say whether it is or it isn't is largely dependent on your use case and threat model. Either way, if the symmetric keys used for the session aren't directly breakable and you are using PQC for the key exchange, you can still enforce forward secrecy in a way that is only strengthened by rotating keys often.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#95
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct. The keys are only used for signing JWTs. Trust was established with the vendor out of band from this wire protocol (the URL they scan for public keys).

I'm not sure I understand, but haven't you just moved the problem to the out of band layer? And is that layer not secured using the same normal (somewhat) long-lived TLS as most sites? I don't think I understand the threat model you are using here?

Think of the out of band layer as two human executives exchanging URLs and GUIDs in person. You still need a secure transport, but in this model the thing that is being secured on the wire expires within 15 minutes. The only way to break the model is to defeat a transport or protocol key and only before rotation, revocation and expiration can catch up each time.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#97
post #56

Is there any reason to believe that Grover's is as good as it gets? I'm on board here, and I think the article caveats that it's a matter of cost, priority, and assumptions. Cool, cool, I'm already using xaes-256-gcm. But I'm just curious if quantum could have new applications for algorithmic analysis, or take advantage of other weaknesses?

Yes and no. Grover's algorithm is provably optimal [0]. No quantum algorithm will ever find an n-bit key by queries to any reasonable sort of oracle faster than Grover's algorithm, and Grover's algorithm is way too slow to be a serious problem. But symmetric ciphers are not black boxes. They're mostly built on some variant of a Feistel network, which is a very nice construction for turning a messy function into an in…

About [3]:

Isn't this realizable with quantum state teleportation? Entanglement networks are definitely being worked on heavily, and after entanglement distillation you just need to send a few bits to effectively have sent a quantum state. Not sure what "chosen-quantum-cyphertext" attacks are though, so maybe my idea fails one of it's assumptions?

About [5]: why not? Because of information leakage, or because they only send from a small set of states?

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Classical brute force is embarrassingly parallel, but Grover's algorithm (the quantum version) isn't. To the extent you parallelize it, you lose the quantum advantage, which means that to speed it up by a factor of N, you need N^2 processors. The article discusses this in detail, and calculates that "This means we’ll need 140 trillion quantum circuits of 724 logical qubits each operating in parallel for 10 years to b…

So then why is quantum always touted as being able to possibly beat AES ?

Is it possible you are confusing AES with RSA?

I've heard a lot about Shor's algorithm breaking RSA, but this article on hackernews is the first I've heard anyone discuss quantum attacks for AES. Then again, I am in quantum computing not cryptography, maybe different circles have different discussions.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#99

Quantum computers are mainly a threat to naive investors.

Please follow the hackernews commenting guidelines in the future. It helps keep this place interesting. Shallow comments such as this one don't meaningful add to the conversation, and won't do much to convince others of your opinion.

> Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

> Don't be curmudgeonly. Thoughtful criticism is fine, but please don't be rigidly or generically negative.

> Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something.

Re: Quantum Computers Are Not a Threat to 128-Bit Symmetric Keys

#100
> I generally believe that 256-bit “security levels” are somewhere between a comfort blanket and numerology [...] AES-256 was unfortunately defined to perform more rounds than AES-128, making it needlessly slower.

Obviously if you benchmark it in RAM you'll see it... but with LUKS disk encryption, for example, disk throughput is completely unaffected by the key size on my newer machines with AES-NI.

In cases like that, it seems silly to me to use the smaller keysize: why would I sacrifice even a tenuous theoretical security benefit for absolutely nothing in return? But granted, the larger keysize will have a measurable cost in most applications, FDE is a rarer case.

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