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The Bromine Chokepoint

warontherocks.com

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Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#81

Post by zoom6628 »

scythe wrote: post #77
browsingonly wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until the cost of local production (union labor, environmental regulations, etc.) meets the increasing costs of imports during said shortfall. Then we'll just make it here. The shortfall goes away but the price would admittedly be higher.

I think you misunderstand. I'm not arguing that the US will face a shortfall. The data above show that the US imports less than 25% of its bromine, but are redacted to prevent the public knowing the real amount. Factories in America are unlikely to face shortfalls of bromine. But unless we have an extra 250 million tonnes of production capacity sitting on the sidelines, which would probably mean more than doubling ou…

The issue is chip production in Korea and possibly Taiwan. And that's where vast amounts of US chip inventory comes from. How to buildout AI capacity if can't source memory chips? This exposes another risk to the high AI valuations which are underpinning market valuations.

The article is timely as it suggests yet another unconsidered risk factor of this war - USA could destroy its own stock market. Or Iran could accelerate that with one missile. I like to think the US military know this hence obsession with missile destruction but it is reasonable based on recent behaviour to assume that the MAGA overlords can't even spell bromine nevermind understand the risk.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#82

Post by omegaworks »

>Three levers are available, and they require action simultaneously.

The article fails to mention the fourth lever: cessation of hostilities, recognition of Iranian sovereignty, reparations for the displaced peoples of the region and curtailment of Israeli expansionist ambitions.

If achieved, none of the collosal amounts of capital expenditure and effort required to immediately secure redundant alternatives to the Bromine supply chain would need to be exerted.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#83

Post by toss1 »

zasz wrote: post #70
chromacity wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The article isn’t arguing that if ICL facilities are disrupted, that’s it, no more bromine forever. It is saying that if these facilities are disrupted there will be an even bigger problem with DRAM supply than already exists because there is no excess supply, no good alternative, and no quick way to ramp up production. This is literally the thesis of each and every one of these articles . Only one mine in the worl…

I clicked through on the link that the article said showed that bromine was impossible to recycle. The abstract says "Here we propose a catalytic strategy that enables the selective and mild-condition conversion of all organobromides present in wastes into renewed bromides for Br recycling. It employs Ullmann-type reactions enabled by inexpensive Cu(I), simple ligands and hydroxides in DMSO–H2O solvent. This strategy…

You overlook the "long time" in your last sentence.

Of course any of these problems can be solved in a long time, 5-10 years.

The article is talking about the problems of between potentially supply being shut off tomorrow and being fixed in "a long time". Not good times.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#84

Post by pfdietz »

Animats wrote: post #31

No, there isn't likely to be a bromine shortage. The US is a major producer of bromine.[1] It's not at all rare. It's just that the cheapest source is the Dead Sea, because that's concentrated brine. There are bromine wells in Arkansas. It's a by-product from some oil wells. It's in seawater. In California alone, the Salton Sea and the SF salt evaporator ponds are potential sources. If the price goes up, the use of b…

One way of making bromine is just bubbling chlorine gas through warm seawater. This oxidizes bromide ions to bromine, which bubbles out.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#85

Post by mmooss »

karlgkk wrote: post #76
chasil wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is high-quality hydrogen bromide, from the article. "Critically, ICL’s hydrogen bromide gas production, including the semiconductor-grade output supplied to South Korean fabrication plants, is manufactured at the same Sodom facility where extraction occurs, meaning extraction and conversion infrastructure are co-located in the same vulnerable corridor."

Making it isn’t hard. The issue is that it’s such a low margin product that anyone spinning up a facility will not see any decent ROI. And local govt won’t allow competition because it risks collapsing their whole market if both producers fail at a the same time. This is what govt is good for, in respects to ensuring materials supply continuity for their domestic markets

The article says it would be difficult to ramp up other production. What is your claim based on?

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#86

Post by dd36 »

pfdietz wrote: post #84
Animats wrote: post #31

No, there isn't likely to be a bromine shortage. The US is a major producer of bromine.[1] It's not at all rare. It's just that the cheapest source is the Dead Sea, because that's concentrated brine. There are bromine wells in Arkansas. It's a by-product from some oil wells. It's in seawater. In California alone, the Salton Sea and the SF salt evaporator ponds are potential sources. If the price goes up, the use of b…

One way of making bromine is just bubbling chlorine gas through warm seawater. This oxidizes bromide ions to bromine, which bubbles out.

That sounds toxic.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#87

Post by bawolff »

bitcurious wrote: post #63
bawolff wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a bit nuts. USA has hated iran since the revolution. Trump himself has talked about blowing up iran since long before he was in power. The geopolitical situation favoured it (while still being highly risky) like no other time previously in history. Not everything is about epstein.

> USA has hated iran since the revolution. Since the revolutionaries declared themselves enemies of America, took hostage US embassy workers and tortured them for over a year.* Agreed that this isn’t about Epstein though. According to the Biden DoJ, Iran attempted to assassinate Trump. He’s rather vindictive.

Yes. I didn't really want to go into causes, because you end up going into x did this but y did that. The important part in context is just that usa has hated iran for a long time. But it is frustrating how people seem to totally ignore the historical context of this conflict. Especially with regards to Israel where they act like they attacked iran out of nowhere instead of recognizing they have been in a cold war with them for like 20 years now.

Like you can't understand current events if you totally ignore the historical events that lead to this moment.

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#89

Post by dimaggiosghost »

chromacity wrote: post #2

Ah, this week's iteration of "we're running out of sand". I'm sure one of these predictions will eventually come true, but we have articles that overstate the likelihood and consequences of running out of pretty much every month. I'm not keeping track, but some of the things we ran out of include sand, helium, tellurium, tantalum, niobium, bees...

I have a half-serious theory these shortages are submarine articles to drum investor interest so smart people like this forum get a feeling they should go invest in industry X, because of course it's a key shortage. Marketed to an audience that likes to think they're one step ahead.

How many of us thought "hmm I wonder what the next one of these is, and how do I invest"?

Re: The Bromine Chokepoint

#90

Post by onion2k »

bitcurious wrote: post #62
chasil wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is high-quality hydrogen bromide, from the article. "Critically, ICL’s hydrogen bromide gas production, including the semiconductor-grade output supplied to South Korean fabrication plants, is manufactured at the same Sodom facility where extraction occurs, meaning extraction and conversion infrastructure are co-located in the same vulnerable corridor."

The production facility is a real vulnerability but the shipping factor is overstated - total supply for silicone etching could be airlifted. It’ll be more expensive but not a crisis.

Given the nature of just how nasty bromine is, I imagine air freight would not be legal over any populated flight corridor. That'll make it impossible to fly into Korea.
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