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Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

tokens.billchambers.me

241–250 of 620 posts

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#241

It's increasingly looking naive to assume scaling LLMs is all you need to get to full white-collar worker replacement. The attention mechanism / hopfield network is fundamentally modeling only a small subset of the full human brain, and all the increasing sustained hype around bolted-on solutions for "agentic memory" is, in my opinion, glaring evidence that these SOTA transformers alone aren't sufficient even when yo…

> you just limit the space to text And even then... why can't they write a novel? Or lowering the bar, let's say a novella like Death in Venice , Candide , The Metamorphosis , Breakfast at Tiffany's ...? Every book's in the training corpus... Is it just a matter of someone not having spent a hundred grand in tokens to do it?

I don’t understand - there are hundreds/thousands of AI written books available now.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the “ad tax” reasoning, but ultimately I think the answer is greater efficiency. So there is a real value, even if all competitors use the tools. It’s like saying clothing manufacturers are paying the “loom tax” tax when they could have been weaving by hand…

Software development is not a production line, the relationship between code output and revenue is extremely non-linear. Where producing 2x the t-shirts will get you ~2x the revenue, it's quite unlikely that 10x the code will get you even close to 2x revenue. With how much of this industry operates on 'Vendor Lock-in' there's a very real chance the multiplier ends up 0x. AI doesn't add anything when you can already 1…

Yep and in a vendor lock in scenario, fixing deep bugs or making additions in surgical ways is where the value is. And Claude helps you do that, by giving you more information, analyzing options, but it doesn’t let you make that decision 10x faster.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mind you, a 30B model (3B active) is not going to be comparable to Opus. There are open models that are near-SOTA but they are ~750B-1T total params. That's going to require substantial infrastructure if you want to use them agentically, scaled up even further if you expect quick real-time response for at least some fraction of that work. (Your only hope of getting reasonable utilization out of local hardware in sing…

For a business with ten or more engineers/people-using-ai, it might still make sense to set this up. For an individual though, I can’t imagine you’d make it through to positive ROI before the hardware ages out.

Since you need at least a few of H100 class hardware, I guess you need at least few tens of coders to justify the costs.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, +1. I will never be working on unsolved problems anyhow. Skill atrophy is not happening if you stay curious and responsible.

Some people talk like skill atrophy is inevitable when you use LLMs, which strikes me as pretty absurd given that you are talking about a tool that will answer an infinite number of questions with infinite patience. I usually learn way more by having Claude do a task and then quizzing it about what it did than by figuring out how to do it myself. When I have to figure out how to do the thing, it takes much more time,…

You lose some, you win some. The win could be short-term much higher, however imagine that the new tool suddenly gets ragged pulled from under your feet. What do you do then? Do you still know how to handle it the old way or do you run into skill atrophy issues? I’m using Claude/Codex as well, but I’m a little worried that the environment we work in will become a lot more bumpy and shifty.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#245
post #46

We dropped Claude. It's pretty clear this is a race to the bottom, and we don't want a hard dependency on another multi-billion dollar company just to write software We'll be keeping an eye on open models (of which we already make good use of). I think that's the way forward. Actually it would be great if everybody would put more focus on open models, perhaps we can come up with something like the "linux/postgres/git…

>perhaps we can come up with something like the "linux/postgres/git/http/etc" of the LLMs: something we all can benefit from while it not being monopolized by a single billionarie company Training and inference costs so we would have to pay for them.

Developing linux/postgres/git also costs, and so do the computers and electricity they use.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you just limit the space to text And even then... why can't they write a novel? Or lowering the bar, let's say a novella like Death in Venice , Candide , The Metamorphosis , Breakfast at Tiffany's ...? Every book's in the training corpus... Is it just a matter of someone not having spent a hundred grand in tokens to do it?

I don’t understand - there are hundreds/thousands of AI written books available now.

I've glossed over a few and one can immediately tell they don't meet the average writing level you'd see in a local workshop for writers, and much less that of Mann or Capote.

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't seen a noticeable difference BUT I've been always using the context mode plugin.

What plugin is this?

I assume they mean: https://github.com/mksglu/context-mode

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What open models are truly competing with both Claude Code and Opus 4.7 (xhigh) at this stage?

That's a lame attitude. There are local models that are last year's SOTA, but that's not good enough because this year's SOTA is even better yet still... I've said it before and I'll say it again, local models are "there" in terms of true productive usage for complex coding tasks. Like, for real, there. The issue right now is that buying the compute to run the top end local models is absurdly unaffordable. Both in ge…

First, making sure to offer an upvote here. I happen to be VERY enthusiastic about local models, but I've found them to be incredibly hard to host, incredibly hard to harness, and, despite everything, remarkably powerful if you are willing to suffer really poor token/second performance...

Re: Anonymous request-token comparisons from Opus 4.6 and Opus 4.7

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who says they can't? What's your bar that needs to be passed in order for "written a novella" to be achieved? There's a lot of bad writing out there, I can't imagine nobody has used an LLM to write a bad novella.

> What's your bar that needs to be passed I provide four examples in my comment...

Your qualification for if an LLM can write a novella is it has to be as good as The Metamorphosis?

Yes, those are examples of novellas, surely you believe an LLM could write a bad novella? I'm not sure what your point is. Either you think it can't string the words together in that length or your standard is it can't write a foundational piece of literature that stays relevant for generations... I'm not sure which.

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