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Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

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Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#181

Post by ungreased0675 »

bigfatkitten wrote: post #142
jhide wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re unclassified public cloud GPUs today , much the same as the massive industrial base of the United States was churning out harmless consumer widgets in 1939. Those widget makers happened to be reconfigurable into weapon makers, and so wartime production exploded from 2% to 40% of GDP in 5 years [1]. But the total industrial output of course didn’t expand by nearly that much. I think it’s maybe plausible that p…

The United States has almost no domestic capability to produce advanced semiconductors. There is no abundance of industrial capacity cranking out GPUs that can be quickly diverted from AI companies into weapon systems. Even if private compute was at a level of maturity where you could use it for classified workloads, knowing that the infrastructure is being managed by someone in India or China, securely getting data…

The US is one of the very few countries with the ability to produce advanced semiconductors.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#182

Post by marche101 »

cousin_it wrote: post #175
timmg wrote: post #3

This tweet shows it as a percentage of US GDP: https://x.com/paulg/status/2045120274551423142 Makes it a little less dramatic. But also shows what a big **'n deal the railroads were!

Wild graphic. US spending on one flying killing machine (the F-35) is comparable to total spending on the Marshall plan to reconstruct Europe after WWII, or the interstate highway system, or all datacenters combined. Priorities!

I don't think that's right - the scale is logarithmic. The Marshall Plan is 20 times as expensive

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#183

Post by falsemyrmidon »

bigfatkitten wrote: post #142
jhide wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’re unclassified public cloud GPUs today , much the same as the massive industrial base of the United States was churning out harmless consumer widgets in 1939. Those widget makers happened to be reconfigurable into weapon makers, and so wartime production exploded from 2% to 40% of GDP in 5 years [1]. But the total industrial output of course didn’t expand by nearly that much. I think it’s maybe plausible that p…

The United States has almost no domestic capability to produce advanced semiconductors. There is no abundance of industrial capacity cranking out GPUs that can be quickly diverted from AI companies into weapon systems. Even if private compute was at a level of maturity where you could use it for classified workloads, knowing that the infrastructure is being managed by someone in India or China, securely getting data…

[dead]

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#184

Post by naasking »

kennywinker wrote: post #139
Lerc wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shovels and labour used to make those things where not depreciated. The GPUs are the shovels, not the project. AI at any capability will retain that capbibilty forever. It only gets reduced in value by superior developments. Which are built upon technologies that the previous generation developed.

Calling the GPUs the shovels is bonkers because a) shovels are cheap, GPUs are not. And b) when you build a bridge the bridge doesn’t need shovels to be passable. Without GPUs, the datacenter is useless, the model is useless, etc. If anything, the GPUs are the steel that the bridge is made of. Each beam can be replaced, but if too many fail the bridge is impassible. A bridge with a 6 year lifespan for each beam is in…

> A bridge with a 6 year lifespan for each beam is insane.

Not necessarily. Depends entirely on the value of the transport that the bridge enables.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#185

Post by dTal »

ezst wrote: post #169
dTal wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>There is no indication that LLMs are a pathway to meaningful and transformative AI. Reality check, they are already astoundingly meaningful and transformative AI. They can converse in natural language, recall any common fact off the top of their heads, do research online and synthesize new information, translate between different human languages (and explain the nuances involved), translate a vague hand wavey descri…

> Reality check, they are already astoundingly meaningful and transformative AI The onus of the proof regarding their meaningful and transformative nature is on you. The largest niche LLMs have so far managed to carve for themselves is software code, with the jury still on the fence as whether the productivity needle actually moved in one direction or the other, and the other, literal jury, enshrining the fact that v…

We are in such different universes that I fear that this will not be a productive discussion; to my eyes LLMs are the most obviously socially transformative technology in my lifetime, up there with "internet" and "smartphones".

You say the largest niche is software production. Okay, let's talk about that. If the jury is still out then the jury is asleep. When ChatGPT first came out - the GPT3 days, years ago, before "vibe code" was even a term - an artist friend of mine who never wrote a line of code in his life straight-up vibe coded 3d visuals to accompany a performance of the band he was in. In Processing, which he'd never heard of until ChatGPT suggested it to him. Do you realize what this means? Normies can use computers now. Actually use, not just consume. You can describe what you want and the computer will do it - will even ask you for clarification if your specification is too ambiguous. Hell, it will even educate you about the subject matter, meeting you at exactly your level, in your favorite writing style.

If you are still thinking in terms of whether vibe coded software is "copyrightable" or whether LLMs are useful for "selling software", you are a blacksmith scoffing that cars are pointless because they don't need horseshoes. Your entire framework is obsolete.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#186

Post by naasking »

wr2 wrote: post #88
manquer wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GDP adjustments are warranted, but it is more stark than both the estimates suggest. The megaprojects of the previous generations all had decades long depreciation schedules. Many 50-100+ year old railways, bridges, tunnels or dams and other utilities are still in active use with only minimal maintenance Amortized Y-o-Y the current spends would dwarf everything at the reported depreciation schedule of 6(!) years for…

Also railways would always have alternative uses at that time - e.g. logistics in warfare. What other uses do GPU's have that are critical...? lol In addition to your points, this is why I always laugh when people do backward comparisons. What characteristics do they share in common? Very little.

> What other uses do GPU's have that are critical...? lol

GPUs are essential to every kind of scientific and engineering simulation you can think of. AI-accelerated simulations are a huge deal now.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#187

Post by tester756 »

bigfatkitten wrote: post #172
tester756 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wut? Intel with 18A can do it

Its low yields and tiny volumes are part of what gets the US from “no capacity” to “almost no capacity.”

yields are constantly improving on monthly basis, according to executives around 7% per month, so the capability is definitely there, but yields still needs some time

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#190

Post by malfist »

zozbot234 wrote: post #146
kennywinker wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling the GPUs the shovels is bonkers because a) shovels are cheap, GPUs are not. And b) when you build a bridge the bridge doesn’t need shovels to be passable. Without GPUs, the datacenter is useless, the model is useless, etc. If anything, the GPUs are the steel that the bridge is made of. Each beam can be replaced, but if too many fail the bridge is impassible. A bridge with a 6 year lifespan for each beam is in…

GPUs don't really have six year lifespans, though. The hardware itself lasts far longer than that, even hardware that's been used for cryptomining in terrible makeshift setups is absolutely fine for reuse.

Each of these GPUs pull up to a kilowatt of power. The average commercial power cost is 13.4 ¢/kWh. That means running a single H100 full tilt 24/7 is a power operationing cost of $1,100 per card per year.

In three years the current generation of GPUs will be 50% or more faster. In six years your talking more than 100% faster. For the same energy costs.

If you're running a GPU data center on six year old GPUs, your cost to operate per sellable unit of work is double the cost of a competitor.

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