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Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

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Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#131
post #43
post #29

IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns. It is like comparing an 8K display to a 16K display because at normal viewing distance, the difference is imperceptible, but 16K comes at significant premium. The same applies to intelligence. Sure, some users might register a meaningful bump, but if 99% can't tell the difference in their day-to-day work, does it matter? A 20-30% cost…

yeah thats is my biggest issue - im okay with paying 20-30% more but what is the ROI? i dont see an equivalent improvement in performance. Anthropic hasnt published any data around what these improvements are - just some vague “better instruction following"

The other thing is most people don't really care about price per token or whatever but how much it will cost to execute (successfully) a task they want.

It doesn't matter if a model is e.g. 30% cheaper to use than another (token-wise) but I need to burn 2x more tokens to get the same acceptable result.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#132

Every time a new model comes out, I'm left guessing what it means for my token budget in order to sustain the quality of output I'm getting. And it varies unpredictably each time. Beyond token efficiency, we need benchmarks to measure model output quality per token consumed for a diverse set of multi-turn conversation scenarios. Measuring single exchanges is not just synthetic, it's unrealistic. Without good cost/qua…

The company I work for provides all engineering employees with a Claude subscription. My job isn't writing (much) code, and we have Copilot with MS Office, plus multiple internal AI tools on top of that. So I'm free to do low-stakes experiments on Claude without having to worry about hitting my monthly usage limit.

I am finding that for complex tasks, Claude's quality of output varies _tremendously_ with repeated runs of the same model and prompt. For example, last week I wrote up (with my own brain and keyboard) a somewhat detailed plain english spec of a work-related productivity app that I've always wanted but never had the time to write. It was roughly the length of an average college essay. The first thing I asked Claude to do was not write any code, but come up with a more formal design and implementation plan based on the requirements that I gave. The idea was to then hand _that_ to Claude and say, okay, now build it.

I used Opus 4.6 with High reasoning for all of this and did not change any model settings between runs.

The first run was overall _amazing_. It was detailed, well-written, contained everything that I asked for. The only drawback was that I was ambiguous on a couple of points which meant that the model went off and designed something in a way that I wasn't expecting and didn't intend. So I cleared that up in my prompt, and instead of keeping the context and building on what was already there, I started a new chat and had it start again from scratch.

What it wrote the second time was _far_ less impressive. The writing was terse, there was a lot less detail, the pretty dependency charts and various tables it made the first time were all gone. Lots of stuff was underspecified or outright missing.

New chat, start again. Similar results as the second run, maybe a bit worse. It also started _writing code_ which was something I told it NOT to do. At this point I'm starting to panic a little because I'm sure I didn't add, "oh, and make it crappy" to the prompt and I was a little angry about not saving the first iteration since it was fairly close to what I had wanted anyway.

I decided to try one last time and it finally gave me back something within about 95% of the first run in terms of quality, but with all the problems fixed. So, I was (finally) happy with that, and it used that to generate the application surprisingly well, with only a few issues that should not be too hard to fix after the fact.

So I guess 4th time was a charm, and the fare was about $7 in tokens to get there.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#133
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Commercial inference providers serve Chinese models of comparable quality… "Comparable" is doing some heavy lifting there. Comparable to Anthropic models in 1H'25, maybe.

Benchmarks suggests they are comparable: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=claude-opus-4-6-adapti... But let's say for the sake of discussion Opus is much better - still doesn't justify the price disparity especially when considering that other models are provided by commercial inference providers and anthropics is inhouse.

> Benchmarks suggests they are comparable

The problem here is people think AI benchmarks are analogous to say, CPU performance benchmarks. They're not:

* You can't control all the variables, only one (the prompt).

* The outputs, BY DESIGN, can fluctuate wildly for no apparent reason (i.e., first run, utter failure, second run, success).

* The biggest point, once a benchmark is known, future iterations of the model will be trained on it.

Trying to objectively measure model performance is a fool's errand.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#134
post #2

On actual code, I see what you see a 30% increase in tokens which is in-line with what they claim as well. I personally don't tend to feed technical documentation or random pros into llms. Given that Opus 4.6 and even Sonnet 4.6 are still valid options, for me the question is not "Does 4.7 cost more than claimed?" but "What capabilities does 4.7 give me that 4.6 did not?" Yesterday 4.6 was a great option and it is to…

Yeah that was an interesting discovery in a development meeting. Many people were chasing after the next best model and everything, though for me, Sonnet 4.6 solves many topics in 1-2 rounds. I mainly need some focus on context, instructions and keeping tasks well-bounded. Keeping the task narrow also simplifies review and staying in control, since I usually get smaller diffs back I can understand quickly and manage or modify later.

I'll look at the new models, but increasing the token consumptions by a factor of 7 on copilot, and then running into all of these budget management topics people talk about? That seems to introduce even more flow-breakers into my workflow, and I don't think it'll be 7 times better. Maybe in some planning and architectural topics where I used Opus 4.6 before.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#135
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah similar for me - it uses a bunch more tokens and I haven’t been able to tell the ROI in terms of better instruction following it seems to hallucinate a bit more (anecdotal)

I had it hallucinate a tool that didn't exist, it was very frustrating!

Anthropic intruduces fake tool calls to prevent distillation of their models. Others still distill. Anthropic distils third party models. Claude now hallucinates tools.

Brilliant.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#136
post #65

News like this always makes me wonder about running my own model, something I've never done. A couple thousand bucks can get you some decent hardware, it looks like, but is it good for coding? What is your all's experience? And if it's not good enough for coding, what kind of money, if any, would make it good enough?

I want to give give you realistic expectations: Unless you spend well over $10K on hardware, you will be disappointed, and will spend a lot of time getting there. For sophisticated coding tasks, at least. (For simple agentic work, you can get workable results with a 3090 or two, or even a couple 3060 12GBs for half the price. But they're pretty dumb, and it's a tease. Hobby territory, lots of dicking around.) Do your…

We need more voices like this to cut through the bullshit. It's fine that people want to tinker with local models, but there has been this narrative for too long that you can just buy more ram and run some small to medium sized model and be productive that way. You just can't, a 35b will never perform at the level of the same gen 500b+ model. It just won't and you are basically working with GPT-4 (the very first one to launch) tier performance while everyone else is on GPT-5.4. If that's fine for you because you can stay local, cool, but that's the part that no one ever wants to say out loud and it made me think I was just "doing it wrong" for so long on lm studio and ollama.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#137
post #61
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Skeptical is a light way to put it. It is essentially a forgone conclusion that once a company IPOs, any veil that they might be working for the global good is entirely lifted. A publicly traded company is legally obligated to go against the global good.

Fair point. Call me an optimist, but I'm still holding out hope that Amodei is and still can do the right thing. That hope is fading fast though.

« Don’t be evil »

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#139

LLMs exist on a logaritmhic performance/cost frontier. It's not really clear whether Opus 4.5+ represent a level shift on this frontier or just inhabits place on that curve which delivers higher performance, but at rapidly diminishing returns to inference cost. To me, it is hard to reject this hypothesis today. The fact that Anthropic is rapidly trying to increase price may betray the fact that their recent lead is a…

They're also getting closer to IPO and have a growing user base. They can't justify losing a very large number of billions of other people's money in their IPO prospectus. So there's a push for them to increase revenue per user, which brings us closer to the real cost of running these models.

They're also getting into cloud compute given you can use the desktop app to work in a temporary sandbox that they provision for you.

I was about to call it reselling but so many startups with their fingers in the tech startup pie offer containerised cloud compute akin to a loss leader. Harking back to the old days of buying clock time on a mainframe except you're getting it for free for a while.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#140
post #29

IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns. It is like comparing an 8K display to a 16K display because at normal viewing distance, the difference is imperceptible, but 16K comes at significant premium. The same applies to intelligence. Sure, some users might register a meaningful bump, but if 99% can't tell the difference in their day-to-day work, does it matter? A 20-30% cost…

> IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns.

You mean a couple of years ago?

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