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Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

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Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#11

Post by stefan_ »

lukeschlather wrote: post #10

This seems like a total category error. The Railroads are the only example that actually seems comparable, in being an infrastructure build out that's mostly done by a variety of private companies. Examples of things that would be worth comparing to the datacenter boom are factory construction and utilities (electrification in the first half of the 20th century, running water, gas pipes.)

"Infrastructure build out"? Everything put into these datacenters is worthless well before 10 years have gone by.

We aren't even getting infrastructure out of it, they are just powering it with gas turbines..

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#12

Post by jeffbee »

stefan_ wrote: post #11
lukeschlather wrote: post #10

This seems like a total category error. The Railroads are the only example that actually seems comparable, in being an infrastructure build out that's mostly done by a variety of private companies. Examples of things that would be worth comparing to the datacenter boom are factory construction and utilities (electrification in the first half of the 20th century, running water, gas pipes.)

"Infrastructure build out"? Everything put into these datacenters is worthless well before 10 years have gone by. We aren't even getting infrastructure out of it, they are just powering it with gas turbines..

This isn't true and you can easily prove it to yourself by renting a Sandy Bridge CPU or a TPUv2 from Google today.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#13

Post by jeffbee »

lukeschlather wrote: post #10

This seems like a total category error. The Railroads are the only example that actually seems comparable, in being an infrastructure build out that's mostly done by a variety of private companies. Examples of things that would be worth comparing to the datacenter boom are factory construction and utilities (electrification in the first half of the 20th century, running water, gas pipes.)

The other categorical error is that the American people paid the railroads a monumental subsidy to get the job done. We gave them almost 10% of the territory.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#15

Post by coffeefirst »

therein wrote: post #5

I really dislike the term hyperscaler. Comes off very insincere. They came up with it themselves, didn't they? What's the official definition supposed to be now? Companies that are setting up as many GPU/TPU server clusters as possible for a demand that's yet to exist?

I have concluded the entire public discourse surrounding AI has no relationship to real stuff that you can go, test, and point at.

There’s a loop of everyone is saying stuff because everyone else is saying stuff that turns into a sort of reality inspired fan fiction.

It’s not just that it’s wrong or imprecise, that I expect, it’s that the folklore takes on a life of its own.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#16

Post by therobots927 »

lukeschlather wrote: post #10

This seems like a total category error. The Railroads are the only example that actually seems comparable, in being an infrastructure build out that's mostly done by a variety of private companies. Examples of things that would be worth comparing to the datacenter boom are factory construction and utilities (electrification in the first half of the 20th century, running water, gas pipes.)

The problem is that once built, railroads provided economic value right off the bat.

I would love to hear about the economic value being generated by these LLMs. I think a couple years is enough time for us to start putting some actual numbers to the value provided.

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#17

Post by lenerdenator »

jeffbee wrote: post #13
lukeschlather wrote: post #10

This seems like a total category error. The Railroads are the only example that actually seems comparable, in being an infrastructure build out that's mostly done by a variety of private companies. Examples of things that would be worth comparing to the datacenter boom are factory construction and utilities (electrification in the first half of the 20th century, running water, gas pipes.)

The other categorical error is that the American people paid the railroads a monumental subsidy to get the job done. We gave them almost 10% of the territory.

Given the size of some of these data centers, the incentives packages that local governments often give their developers, and the impact on the electric grid that can, in some cases, raise costs for other ratepayers, I'd say the comparison could be similar.

The one Google's putting in KC North is 500 acres [0] and there were $10 billion in taxable revenue bonds put up by the Port Authority to help with the cost.

This for a company that could pay for that in cash right now.

[0] https://fox4kc.com/news/google-confirms-its-behind-new-data-...

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#18

Post by j-bos »

timmg wrote: post #3

This tweet shows it as a percentage of US GDP: https://x.com/paulg/status/2045120274551423142 Makes it a little less dramatic. But also shows what a big **'n deal the railroads were!

As sibling comments mentioned deceptive comparison as well. How about comparing in percentage of Gross Energy Output. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S09218...

Re: Hyperscalers have already outspent most famous US megaprojects

#19

Post by lenerdenator »

bombcar wrote: post #8
therein wrote: post #5

I really dislike the term hyperscaler. Comes off very insincere. They came up with it themselves, didn't they? What's the official definition supposed to be now? Companies that are setting up as many GPU/TPU server clusters as possible for a demand that's yet to exist?

It always makes me think of a hyperactive toddler running around in circles, which oddly fits most thought leaders who use the term.

That's not fair to the toddlers; their crap tends to be safely contained in a diaper as opposed to their heads.
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