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Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

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Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#94
post #29

IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns. It is like comparing an 8K display to a 16K display because at normal viewing distance, the difference is imperceptible, but 16K comes at significant premium. The same applies to intelligence. Sure, some users might register a meaningful bump, but if 99% can't tell the difference in their day-to-day work, does it matter? A 20-30% cost…

I agree, but also the model intelligence is quite spikey. There are areas of intelligence that I don't care at all about, except as proxies for general improvement (this includes knowledge based benchmarks like Humanity's Last Exam, as well as proving math theorems etc). There are other areas of intelligence where I would gladly pay more, even 10X more, if it meant meaningful improvements: tool use, instruction following, judgement/"common sense", learning from experience, taste, etc. Some of these are seeing some progress, others seem inherent to the current LLM+chain of thought reasoning paradigm.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#95
post #29

IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns. It is like comparing an 8K display to a 16K display because at normal viewing distance, the difference is imperceptible, but 16K comes at significant premium. The same applies to intelligence. Sure, some users might register a meaningful bump, but if 99% can't tell the difference in their day-to-day work, does it matter? A 20-30% cost…

Whenever we get the locally runnable 4k models things are going to get really awkward for the big 3 labs. Well at least Google will still have their ad revenue I guess.

Given how little claude usage they've been giving us on the "pro" plan lately, I've started doing more with the various open Qwen3.* models. Both Qwen3-coder-next and Qwen3.5-27b have been giving me good results and their 3.6 models are starting to be released. I think Anthropic may be shooting themselves in the foot here as more people start moving to local models due to costs and/or availability. Are the Qwen models as good as Claude right now? No. But they're getting close to as good as Claude sonnet was 9 months to a year ago (prior to 4.5, around 4.0). If I need some complex planning I save that for claude and have the Qwen models do the implementation.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#96
post #29

IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns. It is like comparing an 8K display to a 16K display because at normal viewing distance, the difference is imperceptible, but 16K comes at significant premium. The same applies to intelligence. Sure, some users might register a meaningful bump, but if 99% can't tell the difference in their day-to-day work, does it matter? A 20-30% cost…

>IMHO there is a point where incremental model quality will hit diminishing returns.

It's not necessary a single discrete point I think. In my experience, it's tied to the quality/power of your harness and tooling. More powerful tooling has made revealed differences between models that were previously not easy to notice. This matches your display analogy, because I'm essentially saying that the point at which display resolution improvements are imperceptible matters on how far you sit.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whenever we get the locally runnable 4k models things are going to get really awkward for the big 3 labs. Well at least Google will still have their ad revenue I guess.

They're not perfect but the local model game is progressing so quickly that they're impossible to ignore. I've only played around with the new qwen 3.6 models for a few minutes (it's damn impressive) but this weekend's project is to really put it through its paces. If I can get the performance I'm seeing out of free models on a 6-year-old Macbook Pro M1, it's a sign of things to come. Frontier models will have their…

I've had really good results form qwen3-coder-next. I'm hoping we get a qwen3.6-coder soon since claude seems to get less-and-less available on the pro plan.

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#98
post #65

News like this always makes me wonder about running my own model, something I've never done. A couple thousand bucks can get you some decent hardware, it looks like, but is it good for coding? What is your all's experience? And if it's not good enough for coding, what kind of money, if any, would make it good enough?

I want to give give you realistic expectations: Unless you spend well over $10K on hardware, you will be disappointed, and will spend a lot of time getting there. For sophisticated coding tasks, at least. (For simple agentic work, you can get workable results with a 3090 or two, or even a couple 3060 12GBs for half the price. But they're pretty dumb, and it's a tease. Hobby territory, lots of dicking around.)

Do yourself a favor: Set up OpenCode and OpenRouter, and try all the models you want to try there.

Other than the top performers (e.g. GLM 5.1, Kimi K2.5, where required hardware is basically unaffordable for a single person), the open models are more trouble than they're worth IMO, at least for now (in terms of actually Getting Shit Done).

Re: Measuring Claude 4.7's tokenizer costs

#100
Claude code seems to be getting worse on several fronts and better on others. I suspect product is shifting from 'make it great' to 'make it make as much money for us as possible and that includes gathering data'.

Recently it started promoting me for feedback even though I am on API access and have disabled this. When I did a deep dive of their feedback mechanism in the past (months ago so probably changed a lot since then) the feedback prompt was pushing message ids even if you didn't respond. If you are on API usage and have told them no to training on your data then anything pushing a message id implies that it is leaking information about your session. It is hard to keep auditing them when they push so many changes so I am now 'default they are stealing my info' instead of believing their privacy/data use policy claims. Basically, my level of trust is eroding fast in their commitment to not training on me and I am paying a premium to not have that happen.

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