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The beginning of scarcity in AI

tomtunguz.com

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Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#171

Post by dyauspitr »

com2kid wrote: post #23

To bang on the same damn drum: Open Weight models are 6 months to a year behind SOTA. If you were building a company a year ago based on what AI could do then, you can build a company today with models that run locally on a user's computer. Yes that may mean requiring your customers to buy Macbooks or desktops with Nvidia GPUs, but if your product actually improves productivity by any reasonable amount, that purchase…

That’s nonsense. Local models don’t have any of the nuance in text responses. I find them more akin to GPT 3.5 than even 4.x

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#172

Post by lelanthran »

zozbot234 wrote: post #117
keiferski wrote: post #89

We just had a realization during a demo call the other day: The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. Not being dependent on LLMs for your fundamental product’s value will be a major advantage, at least in pricing.

> The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. It's not that clear. Sure, hardware prices are going up due to the extremely tight supply, but AI models are also improving quickly to the point where a cheap mid-level model today does what the frontier model did a year ago. For the very largest models, I think the latter effect dominates quite easily.

>> The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up.

> It's not that clear. Sure, hardware prices are going up due to the extremely tight supply, but AI models are also improving quickly to the point where a cheap mid-level model today does what the frontier model did a year ago.

I agree; I got some coding value out of Qwen for $10/m (unlimited tokens); a nice harness (and some tight coding practices) lowers the distance between SOTA and 6mo second-tier models.

If I can get 80% of the way to Anthropic's or OpenAI's SOTA models using 10$/m with unlimited tokens, guess what I am going to do...

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#173

Post by andersmurphy »

onion2k wrote: post #152
keiferski wrote: post #89

We just had a realization during a demo call the other day: The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. Not being dependent on LLMs for your fundamental product’s value will be a major advantage, at least in pricing.

The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up Or they'll price the true cost in from the start, and make massive profits until the VC subsidies end... I know which one I'd do.

We don't know what anthropic's true costs are. So pricing that in is at best a guess.

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#175

Post by satvikpendem »

lelanthran wrote: post #172
zozbot234 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. It's not that clear. Sure, hardware prices are going up due to the extremely tight supply, but AI models are also improving quickly to the point where a cheap mid-level model today does what the frontier model did a year ago. For the very largest models, I think the latter effect dominates quite easily.

>> The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. > It's not that clear. Sure, hardware prices are going up due to the extremely tight supply, but AI models are also improving quickly to the point where a cheap mid-level model today does what the frontier model did a year ago. I agree; I got some coding value out of Qwen for $10/m (unlimited tokens); a nice harn…

GitHub Copilot is already $10 and I don't even use up the requests every month, it's the most bang for buck LLM service I've used.

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#176

Post by keiferski »

rybosworld wrote: post #162
muppetman wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No shit. People are just figuring this out now? This is the “Building my entire livelihood on Facebook, oh no what?” all over again. Oh no sorry I forgot, your laptops LLM can draw a potato, let me invest in you.

Seriously. > We just had a realization during a demo call the other day These tools have been around for years now. As they've improved, dependency on them has grown. How is any organization only just realizing this? That's like only noticing the rising water level once it starts flooding the second floor of the house.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47804804

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#177

Post by CodingJeebus »

zozbot234 wrote: post #117
keiferski wrote: post #89

We just had a realization during a demo call the other day: The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. Not being dependent on LLMs for your fundamental product’s value will be a major advantage, at least in pricing.

> The companies that are entirely AI-dependent may need to raise prices dramatically as AI prices go up. It's not that clear. Sure, hardware prices are going up due to the extremely tight supply, but AI models are also improving quickly to the point where a cheap mid-level model today does what the frontier model did a year ago. For the very largest models, I think the latter effect dominates quite easily.

You also have to look at how exposed your vendors are to cost increases as well.

Your company may have the resources to effectively shift to cheaper models without service degradation, but your AI tooling vendors might not. If you pay for 5 different AI-driven tools, that's 5 different ways your upstream costs may increase that you'll need to pass on to customers as well.

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#178

Post by stupefy »

Miraste wrote: post #50
vessenes wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ASML only makes a certain number of machines a year that can do extreme ultra-violet lithography. Also - turbine blades limit power, according to Elon. Between them - we cannot chip fabs past a certain rate, and we cannot stand up the datacenter to run these desired chips past a certain rate. Different people believe one or the other is the 'true' current bottleneck. The turbine supply chain scaling looks much more t…

If only there were some form of cheap, widely manufactured power generation technology that didn't use turbines... Are they really going to wait until 2030 to get more turbines rather than invest in solar?

I am clueless in this field, but solar seems to be unreliable and yield fraction of power required. Do you have a suggestion on something to read and learn more?

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#179

Post by AtlasBarfed »

Pay for the latest AI for EXCLUSIVE POWERS ...

Trying to up-tier fractional improvements in something that can't be quantified easily, and !BONUS! with gated access it can't be as easily analyzed by the (low profit) AI analyzers/benchmarkers.

Foster paranoia among top executives that the fractional/debatable improvement is a MUST HAVE to STAY COMPETITIVE in your industry.

Meanwhile, I have not seen any improvement in software in the now almost ?three to four? years than mainstream LLM and AI coding assistance has arrived on the scene.

Although I will hold out the possibility that software has actually gotten far worse for the end user, because AI code is being dedicated to revenue enhancement and dark data collection.

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