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The beginning of scarcity in AI

tomtunguz.com

31–40 of 239 posts

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#31
post #14

Constraints can lead to innovation. Just two things that I think will get dramatically better now that companies have incentive to focus on them: * harness design * small models (both local and not) I think there is tremendous low hanging fruit in both areas still.

Harness is a big one, Claude Code still has trouble editing files with tabs. I wonder how many tokens per day are wasted on Claude attempting multiple times to edit a file.

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#32
post #23

To bang on the same damn drum: Open Weight models are 6 months to a year behind SOTA. If you were building a company a year ago based on what AI could do then, you can build a company today with models that run locally on a user's computer. Yes that may mean requiring your customers to buy Macbooks or desktops with Nvidia GPUs, but if your product actually improves productivity by any reasonable amount, that purchase…

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Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#33
post #23

To bang on the same damn drum: Open Weight models are 6 months to a year behind SOTA. If you were building a company a year ago based on what AI could do then, you can build a company today with models that run locally on a user's computer. Yes that may mean requiring your customers to buy Macbooks or desktops with Nvidia GPUs, but if your product actually improves productivity by any reasonable amount, that purchase…

I've seen this claimed, but I'm not sure it's been true for my use cases? I should try a more involved analysis but so far open models seem much less even in their skills. I think this makes sense if a lot of them are built based on distillations of larger models. It seems likely that with task specific fine tuning this is true?

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#34
post #8
post #3

What limits LLM inference accelerators? I heard about Groq ( https://groq.com/ ) not sure how much it pushes away the problem.

ASML only makes a certain number of machines a year that can do extreme ultra-violet lithography. Also - turbine blades limit power, according to Elon. Between them - we cannot chip fabs past a certain rate, and we cannot stand up the datacenter to run these desired chips past a certain rate. Different people believe one or the other is the 'true' current bottleneck. The turbine supply chain scaling looks much more t…

Is global compute bottlenecked by one company?

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#36
post #23

To bang on the same damn drum: Open Weight models are 6 months to a year behind SOTA. If you were building a company a year ago based on what AI could do then, you can build a company today with models that run locally on a user's computer. Yes that may mean requiring your customers to buy Macbooks or desktops with Nvidia GPUs, but if your product actually improves productivity by any reasonable amount, that purchase…

I've seen this claimed, but I'm not sure it's been true for my use cases? I should try a more involved analysis but so far open models seem much less even in their skills. I think this makes sense if a lot of them are built based on distillations of larger models. It seems likely that with task specific fine tuning this is true?

What are you trying to do?

Write code? No. Use frontier models. They are subsidized and amazing and they get noticably better ever few months.

Literally anything else? Smaller models are fine. Classifiers, sentiment analysis, editing blog posts, tool calling, whatever. They go can through documents and extract information, summarize, etc. When making a voice chat system awhile back I used a cheap open weight model and just asked it "is the user done speaking yet" by passing transcripts of what had been spoken so far, and this was 2 years ago and a crappy cheap low weight model. Be creative.

I wouldn't trust them to do math, but you can tool call out to a calculator for that.

They are perfectly fine at holding conversations. Their weights aren't large enough to have every book ever written contained in them, or the details of every movie ever made, but unless you need that depth and breadth of knowledge, you'll be fine.

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#37
post #14

Constraints can lead to innovation. Just two things that I think will get dramatically better now that companies have incentive to focus on them: * harness design * small models (both local and not) I think there is tremendous low hanging fruit in both areas still.

What do you mean by harness here?

Re: The beginning of scarcity in AI

#38

The US is bound by energy and China is bound by compute power. The one who solves its limitation first will end this “Scarcity Era”.

The dynamics vastly favor China, part of the reason the US sprinting towards "ASI" isn't totally boneheaded is that the US and its industry needs a hail mary play to "win" the game, if they play it safe they lose for sure.
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