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The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

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Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#451

Post by estimator7292 »

baal80spam wrote: post #36
lukev wrote: post #17

This is a must-read series of articles, and I think Kyle is very much correct. The comparison to the adoption of automobiles is apt, and something I've thought about before as well. Just because a technology can be useful doesn't mean it will have positive effects on society. That said, I'm more open to using LLMs in constrained scenarios, in cases where they're an appropriate tool for the job and the downsides can b…

> Just because a technology can be useful doesn't mean it will have positive effects on society. You say it in a way that it sounds like automobiles don't have a positive effect. I don't agree - they have some negative effects but overall they have a vast net positive effect for everyone.

What benefit do cars provide that public transit doesn't? How are thousands of individual cars better than light rail?

Cars aren't a positive in society. Transportation is the benefit, and cars are the worst possible way to transport people. A functioning public transit system is better in every possible way apart from egotistical arguments like "I don't like seeing poor people on the bus".

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#452

Post by lossyalgo »

tpmoney wrote: post #429
lossyalgo wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fact, the cities which are repeatedly rated as having the highest quality of life are almost all not car-centric.

But is that a function of the cars or a function of the urban density? One imagines that the suburban and rural areas that are rated highest quality of life are almost all car-centric

Cities have existed for much longer than automobiles have and have somehow prospered since millenia. I don't think the recent invention of automobiles has anything to do with proper functioning of cities.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#453

Post by kraquepype »

Kbelicius wrote: post #207
snackerblues wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate toxic liberalism, toxic feminism, toxic gay rights, toxic DEI, toxic emancipation, toxic gun control, toxic abortions, etc. No it's not that I'm against any those things just the toxic applications of them.

As do I. What is your point?

They are only trying to prove their own point, playing their own language game they alluded to in another comment:

> In practice, both do mean exactly that. "Nontoxic individualism" is collectivism, "nontoxic masculinity" is femininity. You're not slick, everyone gets the language games at this point

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#454

Post by sambellll »

armonster wrote: post #46
baal80spam wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just because a technology can be useful doesn't mean it will have positive effects on society. You say it in a way that it sounds like automobiles don't have a positive effect. I don't agree - they have some negative effects but overall they have a vast net positive effect for everyone.

Their negative effects are much more vast, subtle, and cultural. You could say many of the broad and widespread mental issues we have in the US is the result of automobiles leading to suburbanization and thus isolation of people. It has created an expensive barrier of entry for existing in society and added a ton of friction to doing anything and everything, especially with people. That's not even getting into the cl…

I don't think it's fair to say suburbanization lead to isolation. I think factors like social media have had a much bigger impact.

It's not like you're living away from any people - you have 100 other neighbours living on your street!

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#455

Post by seer »

What the author is missing is that in his decision to limit the use of LLMs in his work, he omits the part where he “can”. E.g. he is resourceful and accomplished enough to be able to do the work he desires with no LLMs - but most people actually can’t. There are whole swaths of people software engineers that don’t write tests because “it slows them down” but they have never learned how to write testable code. And when thrust into an environment where they need to learn quickly - they don’t really have a way not to use ai, if they don’t someone else will, and take all the credit.

Learning how software is built is hard and gruelling work, and you need to constantly invest in yourself. Trouble is there is no time left to “go back to basics and learn FP” for example, because you also need to keep up with all the new LLM stuff happening on top of that.

It is easy for us who already have the foundational knowledge to be able to step back, take the wheel and try to do it ourselves, but plenty of people simply don’t have that option.

And I expect this trend to deepen and broaden. There will definitely be a lot more “witches” than actual engineers.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#456

Post by munificent »

Animats wrote: post #445

"I could retrain, but my core skills—reading, thinking, and writing—are squarely in the blast radius of large language models." Yes. For the lifetime of almost everyone alive now, reading, thinking, and writing have been valued skills which moved one up in society's hierarchy. This is a historical anomaly. Prior to 1800 or so, those skills were not all that useful to the average farmer. There were more smart people t…

I don't disagree with your overall point, but I do think that ingenuity, problem-solving, impulse control, and the ability to delay gratification and reach long-term goals have always been valuable skills.

You might still only be a farmer if you're smart, but you can at least be one of the more productive farmers with a more smoothly running farm.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#457

Post by MisterTea »

fl4regun wrote: post #303
MisterTea wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It can't. It can't even deal with emails without randomly deleting your email folder [1]. And early cars were expensive, dangerous, highly unreliable, uncomfortable, belched foul exhaust, and required knowledge of how to drive AND maintain them. We are far, far from that scenario these days.

That's not proof that it will ever do those things in the future either, however.

We have no proof what it will do in the future. I'm just maintaining the car analogy theme.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#459

Post by munificent »

poncho_romero wrote: post #406
jimbokun wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are countless use cases for point to point personal transportation not covered by public transit options.

Most of these use cases exist because of the prevelance of personal vehicles. We reach for cars because they are there. We see the world through windshields, so when problems arise we conceive of car-based solutions. Cars force us into city designs and styles of living that require cars. That is to say, cars necessitate cars.

Everyone hates cars until they need an ambulance.

Yes, obviously there are many negative externalities to a car-driven culture, but just like we can easily become blind to the diffuse societal costs of a piece of technology, I think a culture of nay-saying makes it very easy to be blind to the diffuse value of a piece of technology too.

Loud stinky cities full of pollution and climate change are obviously horrible.

But we easily take for granted how amazing it is to be able to drive to a mountain and go for a hike, or call an ambulance, or go to a restaurant when it's raining out, or safely travel in a city without risking being assaulted, etc.

Internal combustion engines are amazing and horrible.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Where do we go from here?

#460

Post by Earw0rm »

1234letshaveatw wrote: post #143
Earw0rm wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's fine if people choose it. It's not fine if that choice denies other people the choice not to. And there seems to be a lot of the latter. For example, when shopping facilities or hospitals are built so as to be, de-facto, only accessible by automobile, that locks people out of the choice to say no thanks.

I don't follow, are people then not able to choose to live somewhere that has shopping facilities or hospitals that are built so as not to be only accessible by automobile?

Yes, if such places are plentiful. It's a messy situation where revealed preference (house prices in walkable areas, Amsterdam and Paris increasingly full of rich young Americans) vs immediate consumer choice (more cars! More convenience! Oops, now we need to flatten downtown for an elevated freeway...) tend to give conflicting answers.
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