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Codex for almost everything

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Re: Codex for almost everything

#101
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for normie agents to take off in the way that you expect, you're going to have to grant them with full access At this point it's a foregone conclusion this is what users will choose. It'll be like (lack of) privacy on the internet caused by the ad industrial complex, but much worse and much more invasive. The threats are real, but it's just a product opportunity to these companies. OpenAI and friends will sell the…

There was a recent Stanford study which showed that AI enthusiasts and experts and the normies had very different sentiment when it came to AI. I think most people are going to say they dont want it. I mean, why would anyone want a tool that can screw up their bank account? What benefit does it gain them? Theres lots of cases of great highly useful LLM tools, but the moment they scale up you get slammed by the risks…

I agree, in general we are going to find that ultimately most employee end users don't want it. Assuming it actually makes you more productive. I mean, who the hell wants to be 10X more productive without a commensurate 10X compensation increase? You're just giving away that value to your employer.

On the other hand, entrepreneurs and managers are going to want it for their employees (and force it on them) for the above reason.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#102

My current expectation is that the Cowork/Codex set of "professional agents" for non-technical users will be one of the most important and fastest growing product categories of all time, so far. i.e. agents for knowledge workers who are not software engineers A few thoughts and questions: 1. I expect that this set of products will be extremely disruptive to many software businesses. It's like when a new VP joins a co…

> My current expectation is that the Cowork/Codex set of "professional agents" for non-technical users will be one of the most important and fastest growing product categories of all time, so far. I disagree. There is a major gap between awesome tech and market uptake. At this point, the question is whether LLMs are going to be more useful than excel. AI enthusiasts are 100% sure that it’s already more useful than ex…

> market uptake.

I think the market uptake of Claude Cowork is already massive.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#103
post #59
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are you using today? In my experience LLMs are already pretty good at this. LLMS are good at "find me a two week vacation two months from now"? Or at "do my taxes"? > how to use Cowork. Yes, and I taught my mom how to use Apple Books, and have to re-teach her every time Apple breaks the interface. Ask your non-tech friends what they do with and how they feel about Cowork in a few weeks. > I think where our vie…

> Or at "do my taxes"? codex did my taxes this year (well it actually implemented a normalization pipeline and a tax computing engine which then did the taxes, but close enough)

If your prompt was more complex than "do my taxes", then this is irrelevant.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#104
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hot take: we (not I, but I reluctantly) will keep calling it code long after there's no code to be seen. Like we did with phones that nobody phones with.

Yeah, that's indeed a hot take. I am curious what kind of code you write for a living to have an opinion like this.

It's not the code I write, it's what I've noticed from people in 25 years of writing code in the corner.

All of my friends who would die before they use AI 2 years ago now call themselves AI/agentic engineers because the money is there. Many of them don't understand a thing about AI or agents, but CC/Codex/Cursor can cover up for a lot.

Consequently, if Claude Code/"coding agents" is a hot topic (which it is), people who know nothing about any of this will start raising money and writing articles about it, even (especially) if it has nothing to do with code, because these people know nothing about code, so they won't realize what they're saying makes no sense. And it doesn't matter, because money.

Next thing you know your grandma will be "writing code" because that's what the marketing copy says. That's all it takes for the zeitgeist to shift for the term "code". It will soon mean something new to people who had no idea what code was before, and infuriating to people who do know (but aren't trying to sell you something).

I know that's long-winded but hopefully you get where I'm coming from :D.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#105

I'm sorry to be slightly off topic but since it's ChatGPT, anyone else find it annoying to read what the bot is thinking while it thinks? For some reason I don't want to see how the sausage is being made.

I do want to see as it allows me to course correct.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#106
post #99

Confusingly, Codex their agentic programming thing and codex their GUI which only works on Mac and Windows have the same name. I think the latter is technically "Codex For Desktop", which is what this article is referring to.

It’s marginally better than Microsoft naming things.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#107
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Programmers mostly don't. Ordinary people see figuring out how to use the computer as a hindrance rather than empowering, they want Star Trek. They want "computer, plan my next vacation to XYZ for me" to lay out a full itinerary and offer to buy the tickets and make the reservations. Knowledge work is work most people don't really want to deal with. Ordinary people don't put much value into ideas regardless of their…

> Ordinary people don't put much value into ideas regardless of their level of refinement This seems true to me, though I'm not sure how it connects here?

assuming that developers aren't Ordinary people...

Re: Codex for almost everything

#108

I swear OpenAI has 2-3 unannounced releases ready to go at any time just so they can steal some thunder from their competitors when they announce something

Perhaps, but that strategy can backfire if you're planting a subpar comparison in the minds of customers.

Yeah but has that really happened? Anthropic doesn't have the compute so everyone can switch to Claude for a couple months, get nerfed, switch back. Gemini has horrible UX.

Re: Codex for almost everything

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the coding market will be much larger. Knowledge work is kind of like the leaf nodes of the economy where software is the branches. That's to say, making software easier and cheaper to write will cause more and more complexity and work to move into the Software domain from the "real world" which is much messier and complicated.

Yes, and the same thing will happen in non-coding knowledge work too. Making knowledge work cheaper will cause complexity to increase, more knowledge work.

Yes, I have a theory - that higher efficiency becomes structural necessity. We just can't revert to earlier inefficient ways. Like mitochondria merging with the primitive cell - now they can't be apart.
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