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IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

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Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#411
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't doubt your experience, but I wouldn't expect it to continue. I don't think Tuna-Fish is correct that "most" of the IPv4 world is behind CGNAT, but that does appear to be the trend. You can't even assume hosting providers give their subscribers their own IPv4 addresses anymore. On the other hand, there's a chance providers like Linode will eventually wise up and start giving subscribers their own /64 - there a…

> I don't think Tuna-Fish is correct that "most" of the IPv4 world is behind CGNAT ~60%+ of internet traffic is mobile, which is ~100% behind CGNAT. On desktop, only ~20% of US and European web traffic uses CGNAT, but in China that number is ~80%, in India ~70% and varies among African countries but is typically well over 70%, with it being essentially universal in some countries. Overall, something a bit over 80% of…

Oh wow, thanks for those numbers!

Since mmbleh mentioned Linode I'm guessing they're more concerned with traffic from servers, where CGNAT is uncommon. But even that may be changing - https://blog.exe.dev/ssh-host-header

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

GitHub is at the point where it immediately rate limits me if I try to look at a project's commit history without being logged in, as in the first time I even open a single URL to the commit history, I get "Too Many Requests" from GitHub thrown at me. I don't know if my work's antivirus stack is causing GitHub to be suspicious of me, but it's definitely egregious.

It’s not you or your setup. I experience the same behavior. Tried with and without Private Relay, residential and commercial ISPs at different locations, and more to debug it. Same results. I think GitHub has just gotten so aggressive with their rate limit policies that it’s straight up incompatible with their own product. The charitable interpretation is that they aren’t keeping good track of how many requests each…

On the other side of the coin, they also punish people who have slow connections. The acceptable speed for downloading from github on my connection is 90k/sec. No more, no less. Something prevents the rate from being higher (probably Github), and if the rate drops any lower for any length of time, the connection will suddenly abort right in the middle of the download. Since the dumpster fire that is git doesn't support resume, welcome to hell. If I didn't have a fast server elsewhere to git to then zip up and re-download, I'd be screwed.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#413
post #5

It has barely hit 50% and it's already plateauing. This adoption rate is ridiculous despite basically all network interfaces supporting it. I thought I would see IPv6 take over in my lifetime as the default for platforms to build on but I can see I was wrong. Enterprise and commercial companies are literally going to hold back internet progress around 60 to 75 years because it's in their best interest to ensure users…

Is there a reason why adoption has been so abysmally slow? Like surely all the big players have updated their networking equipment by now, and surely every piece of enterprise-grade kit sold in the last 20 years has supported v6. The only arguments I've ever heard against ipv6 that made any sense are that: 1: it's hard to remember addresses, which is mayyyyybe valid for homelab enthusiast types, but for medium scale…

"Is there a reason why adoption has been so abysmally slow?"

Just the obvious one: the people who designed IPv6 didn't design for backwards compatibility.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#414

Tailscale have a great FAQ about IPv4 vs IPv6: https://tailscale.com/docs/reference/faq/ipv6 If you're not an expert in this area it's worth a read - I certainly learned a few things!

Here is my article that I wrote when I wanted to learn more about IPv6: https://ssg.dev/ipv6-for-the-remotely-interested-af214dd06aa...

EDIT: After reading Tailscale's article, I noticed that I overlooked our neverending dependence to NAT despite that IPv6 seems to eliminate it.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#415
post #402

Random related data point: for HTTP requests to Wikipedia (and related) for the past 7d, the IP protocol split is roughly 35% IPv6 / 65% IPv4. (this is counting by-request, so heavy usage from a small number of IPv4s can skew it).

> heavy usage from a small number of IPv4s

Basically, all crawlers.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#416

Good. I think most of us know that their design failure here was a lack of backwards compatibility. But at least it's getting adopted.

Backward compatibility was never really the problem; the problem is that forward compatibility with ANY successor protocol (without modifying IPv4) is a fundamental impossibility.

But at least a reasonable facsimile eventually came out with NAT64.

(You can also do NAT46, but it requires one IPv4 address for every IPv6 destination you want to be reachable from the IPv4 Internet, so it doesn't scale very well.)

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I worked at a place where they refused to run it _anywhere_ because a couple of people were insistent that it was “insecure”.

... and they were right. v6 adoption is often an all or nothing, because if you run both stacks, you have to ensure they are consistent. While you can reasonably do it on your home LAN, doing it across an entire infrastructure is the worst. Now you have to make sure all your subnets, routing, VLANs, firewall rules, etc work exactly the same in two protocols that have very little in common. It is the equivalent of shi…

This is exactly why I decided not to enable IPv6 on my colo. When money is involved, the benefits of IPv6 simply do not outweigh the risk, in my estimation. If my side gig eventually pays enough to pay a contractor to handle networking then sure, that'll be one of the first tasks. But when it's just me managing the entire stack, my number one priority is security, and for now that means keeping things simple as possible.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#418
post #105

Everyone's saying progress is slow, but maybe this is just how long it takes to do massive decentralized global migrations affecting billions of people. What are we comparing against? Maybe the ICE-to-EV transition?

Latin1 to UTF8

And I still, to this day, see mojibake from time to time.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#419

I am aware of at least 2 telecoms, one publicly traded, that have very little to no IPv6 in their core networks and only use IPv6 when they have to. Personally I think the design of IPv6 offers very little benefit; supposedly the Dept of Defense/Dept of War holds some 175 million IPv4 addresses, with other companies also holding large allocations - that should have been addressed 25-30 years ago as an administrative…

To what end though? 4 billion addresses is not enough on its own, even if they were reallocated from hoarders. I think that NAT and especially CGNAT have been very detrimental to the shape of the internet, where it's nearly impossible to self-host a public service without a VPN of some kind. Needing to pay some company for the ability to host a server that isn't behind NAT is a barrier that doesn't need to exist when…

You're not wrong, but practically speaking, hosting a VM is so cheap and comes with the advantage of serving from a datacenter that I would never want to host anything off my residential connection anyway.

The $1 to $5 a month to have excellent, reliable connectivity (that no residential connection provides), DDoS protection, and isn't tied to my home IP outweighs any home hosting benefit in my experience.

Re: IPv6 traffic crosses the 50% mark

#420
post #20
post #10

while it looks like its slowing down, I am pretty sure it will speed up once IPv4 get even more expensive, sites start to be hosted on IPv6 only and become inaccessible to some users that dont have IPv4. Thats surely going to put pressure on ISPs

Outside of hobbyist niche uses, sites won't start being hosted IPv6-only. The financialization of IPv4 addresses will simply get worse and be even more pay-to-play than it is now. Amazon raises the price of IPv4 and everyone goes along as a cost of doing business.

Yeah, hobbyist niche sites like these:

https://clintonwhitehouse1.archives.gov/

https://clintonwhitehouse2.archives.gov/

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