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OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

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Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#91

Post by taurath »

the__alchemist wrote: post #11
fraywing wrote: post #2

What happens if OpenAI collapses at this point? Is it just too big to fail given defense contracts and Microsoft? The Sora sunsetting marked a big shift towards enterprise focus and meeting Anthropic on the enterprise battlefield, but almost all engineers I work with or know are using Claude at this point exclusively. Anyone seeing differently?

> Anyone seeing differently? There have been a stream of HN posts (I'm noticed this mainly in the past few weeks) implying some people prefer ChatGPT/Codex to Claude. Anecdotally, Claude on the $20/month plan can only run 1-3 queries per 4 hours before rate limiting, often stopping in the middle of a query. ChatGPT/Codex doesn't have this problem.

> Anecdotally, Claude on the $20/month plan can only run 1-3 queries per 4 hours before rate limiting

Utterly not my experience. I use opus near daily for long research sessions (not all agent based). Are you throwing in 100k input tokens to every query?

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#92

Post by distances »

Leynos wrote: post #49
echelon wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Missing the Claude Code market was the biggest swing and miss ever. Too busy trying to make TikTok for preteens with $4/generation videos that lost their novelty the minute IP was off the table. Didn't even identify the professional market in video was the correct place to invest, like Kling and ByteDance did. Chasing consumer killed their ascendency. Sam is a ruthless leader and knows how to build an empire, but he'…

It amazed me that no one picked up on Codex last summer when it was effectively unlimited. I must have burnt through £10k worth of inference whilst still paying £20 a month

Last summer it was good for certain tasks, but letting it run wild was a recipe for a huge mess where you'd spend more time unraveling it than writing the whole thing by hand. That was my experience, at least.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#93

Post by nofriend »

kikokikokiko wrote: post #86
asim wrote: post #83

Nothing is worth $852B in that space of time unless they are printing more than half of that in cash which to be clear they are not. They are burning it at that rate. Let's be clear. It's a valuable company, a valuable product, a valuable technology. It set the trend for the next phase of computer usage. But it's not worth $852B in that span of time and when it goes public that reality will bear down on them quickly.…

Falling knife or not, if you own an index fund, or if your 401k owns one, you're buying a piece of it at IPO prices. The exit scam is almost complete.

Index funds won't get in at ipo prices. They wait a year or so before including new stocks, so the price is guaranteed to have settled by then. OpenAI also isn't profitable yet so that's another point against them in terms of being included in index funds.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#94

Post by digitaltrees »

grtteee wrote: post #76
digitaltrees wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’ve never tried to train the average admin. Basic forms can be a challenge. Even things like selecting a dropdown menu or pushing a button can be surprisingly hard.

Most people here have no idea what works for the majority of people - who don’t want to spend time figuring stuff out. I’m sure many here live in delulu land wondering why everyone doesn’t find the open claw stuff as fascinating as they do.

Yes. And that’s not a criticism of average people. Tools should fit the user not the other way around. Designs systematically removed shadows and visual clues. Developers render buttons off the screen requiring a scroll to submit. Hard to criticize the user under those circumstances. But there are people with art brains, and math brains, and software brains. So it may be the case that AI adoption is limited by how it expects the user to relate to the tool

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#95

Post by jcgrillo »

timmmmmmay wrote: post #64
gradus_ad wrote: post #8

Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if there are no other killer apps for Enterprise? Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. The Enterprise market is not as substantial as the rapid success of CC makes seem.

it's been pretty funny seeing people who did not predict Claude Code's success and previously said the whole sector was a nonsense dead end now saying, well okay there's one massively successful killer app, but what if that's the only one ever?

The whole sector is still quite likely a nonsense dead end.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#96

Post by nickvec »

kushalpandya wrote: post #81

The duopoly slowly turning into a monopoly won't be pretty.

I suspect that Google is working on improving their models for coding behind the scenes. Hopefully they release something soon to compete with Codex and CC. To be candid, I use CC, but have not tried out Codex.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#97

Post by nopinsight »

hgoel wrote: post #71
nopinsight wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.

I think you still need software brain, because ultimately, this stuff still has limitations driven by software constraints, and having the AI try to explain it to them doesn't necessarily help. I think we all have had experiences with people treating their computers as magic boxes and not understanding why certain requests simply are not possible to satisfy.

A growing number of non-technical managers are now using Claude Code to build small custom software. A larger share will use Cowork to automate routine business tasks. Claude Cowork will become easier to use and more automated over time, as it learns the user's preferences, just like a good executive assistant does.

Granted, it's possible that a majority of people will not acquire proper 'manager brain' either and we'll see how that pans out. Evolutionarily, managerial skills are much more aligned with what many hunter-gatherers might learn as they mature and become more of an advisor than a doer.

Even if only 10-20% of people end up using multiple autonomous agents regularly for their work and business, that will change the economy. Contrast this with <1% of people who develop software professionally.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#98

Post by echelon »

dyauspitr wrote: post #84
echelon wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, I'm in the film and engineering spaces, and I can honestly say the same about image and video models. There is so much fun in all of these tools, and the productivity gains are insane. I shoot film, but I never would have been able to do anything like this before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch…

Uh, how is this possible? Is this all Veo 3? How are they getting such fantastic continuity across clips?

Veo 3 is one of the weaker video models, surprisingly!

Google and OpenAI are both really far behind the Chinese at this point. Perhaps Google will unveil something groundbreaking at Google I/O, but both companies have been trailing for well over a year at this point.

One of the reasons OpenAI gave up was not only were they losing money, but they were also ridiculously far behind (11th or below in the rankings).

The models most professionals use are Kling o3, Kling 3.0 and, more recently, Seedance 2.0. These are all Chinese models.

Seedance 2.0 stands out as an almost order of magnitude improvement over everything else in the industry. It's truly the SOTA model. It blows everything else out of the water, and it's truly remarkable to experience it in use.

On April 30th, Alibaba's new Happy Horse model rolls out. They poached folks from Kling to build it. It's supposedly 2-5x cheaper than Seedance 2.0, and its ELO scores rank it as the new highest performing model.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/text-to-vide...

https://artificialanalysis.ai/video/leaderboard/image-to-vid...

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#99

Post by margalabargala »

dyauspitr wrote: post #84
echelon wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, I'm in the film and engineering spaces, and I can honestly say the same about image and video models. There is so much fun in all of these tools, and the productivity gains are insane. I shoot film, but I never would have been able to do anything like this before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch…

Uh, how is this possible? Is this all Veo 3? How are they getting such fantastic continuity across clips?

They aren't one shotting these.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#100

Post by strongpigeon »

nofriend wrote: post #93
kikokikokiko wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Falling knife or not, if you own an index fund, or if your 401k owns one, you're buying a piece of it at IPO prices. The exit scam is almost complete.

Index funds won't get in at ipo prices. They wait a year or so before including new stocks, so the price is guaranteed to have settled by then. OpenAI also isn't profitable yet so that's another point against them in terms of being included in index funds.

NASDAQ just changed some rules recently concerning exactly this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-rule-could-fast-track-spa...

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