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OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

reuters.com

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Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#71

Post by hgoel »

nopinsight wrote: post #59
dagamer34 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think The Verge said it the best. Taking advantage of these tools to the maximum requires you to have "software brain" which the average person does not have. They struggle to set up a simple automation in their smart home platform of choice. There is little reason to believe they will take the leap to use such tools to simplify daily tasks because it requires people to think about which daily tasks can be simplifi…

I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.

I think you still need software brain, because ultimately, this stuff still has limitations driven by software constraints, and having the AI try to explain it to them doesn't necessarily help.

I think we all have had experiences with people treating their computers as magic boxes and not understanding why certain requests simply are not possible to satisfy.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#72

Post by ericd »

echelon wrote: post #57
groceryheist wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, where its use increases demand for itself, at least in the supply / demand range for code we are accustomed to. It makes making software so much easier that Claude coding custom software becomes a solution to all sorts of past annoyances. Maintaining the software is easy enough thanks to Claude code.

> Claude Code is rare product that is both beneficial and economically addictive, I'm in the film and engineering spaces, and I can honestly say the same about image and video models. There is so much fun in all of these tools, and the productivity gains are insane. I shoot film, but I never would have been able to do anything like this before: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDdsKJl92H4 https://www.youtube.com/watch…

Thanks, these are a real trip, especially loved Pi Hard.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#73

Post by digitaltrees »

nopinsight wrote: post #59
dagamer34 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think The Verge said it the best. Taking advantage of these tools to the maximum requires you to have "software brain" which the average person does not have. They struggle to set up a simple automation in their smart home platform of choice. There is little reason to believe they will take the leap to use such tools to simplify daily tasks because it requires people to think about which daily tasks can be simplifi…

I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.

You’ve never tried to train the average admin.

Basic forms can be a challenge. Even things like selecting a dropdown menu or pushing a button can be surprisingly hard.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#74

Post by grtteee »

mandevil wrote: post #68
grtteee wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people don’t want to accept and believe that the only viable revenue stream is selling tokens in relation to software development. All the other stuff is nice… but you will continue to be money losing and eventually die. Now you can’t come out and say this because there’s a whole bunch of investments that depend on hype - think about the robotics nonsense.

Is it actually profitable? That the presumed market leader, Anthropic, changed their business model just today to kill off their buffet monthly plans and switch to a la carte for Enterprise makes me doubt they are making money off of selling tokens to software developers.

I never commented on profitability, only revenue.

And I’m referring to selling tokens to enterprises that produce software.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#75

Post by StilesCrisis »

the__alchemist wrote: post #11
fraywing wrote: post #2

What happens if OpenAI collapses at this point? Is it just too big to fail given defense contracts and Microsoft? The Sora sunsetting marked a big shift towards enterprise focus and meeting Anthropic on the enterprise battlefield, but almost all engineers I work with or know are using Claude at this point exclusively. Anyone seeing differently?

> Anyone seeing differently? There have been a stream of HN posts (I'm noticed this mainly in the past few weeks) implying some people prefer ChatGPT/Codex to Claude. Anecdotally, Claude on the $20/month plan can only run 1-3 queries per 4 hours before rate limiting, often stopping in the middle of a query. ChatGPT/Codex doesn't have this problem.

That's crazy talk. I am on the $20 plan and I do hit the limit occasionally, but I get a few hours of usage before I do.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#76

Post by grtteee »

digitaltrees wrote: post #73
nopinsight wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think 'software brain' is required for non-coding tasks. Rather, it requires 'manager brain', the ability to delegate, direct, and review the output. Manager brain is more prevalent than software brain and likely learnable by many knowledge workers who don't yet have it.

You’ve never tried to train the average admin. Basic forms can be a challenge. Even things like selecting a dropdown menu or pushing a button can be surprisingly hard.

Most people here have no idea what works for the majority of people - who don’t want to spend time figuring stuff out.

I’m sure many here live in delulu land wondering why everyone doesn’t find the open claw stuff as fascinating as they do.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#77

Post by _3u10 »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #53
gradus_ad wrote: post #8

Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if there are no other killer apps for Enterprise? Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. The Enterprise market is not as substantial as the rapid success of CC makes seem.

HN is a bubble. I hear people from outside of Silicon Valley that only just started trying out Claude Code recently. There's still a ton of developers yet to jump on board.

CC kinda sucks compared to opencode & kimi / minimax. It’s slow and annoying and the UI is subpar.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#78

Post by majormajor »

TheDong wrote: post #38
gradus_ad wrote: post #8

Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if there are no other killer apps for Enterprise? Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. The Enterprise market is not as substantial as the rapid success of CC makes seem.

What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? Like, that feels like it's also a huge amount of token churn ("sure, I can search every xls file on your machine to find the 2023 invoice from that company"), and very early in its adaption curve. Most people are still using AI as a webpage chatbot to ask questions to and copy+paste betw…

"Push buttons for me" in the most common ways I see it used ("add this ticket to Jira so I don't have to") is a nice timesaver for being lazy but it's not a 10x multiplier to justify the subscribe-forever cost.

I think it's more likely that the companies that employ large numbers of people to perform manual push-the-button-then-the-other-button workflows will replace the tools that need button-pushing with other sorts of automation.

And outside of work I wouldn't spend any money on something to save myself the ten minutes of logging in to pay my credit cards or check my bank statements once a month or so. I have no real need for an always-running assistant and even the things that it seems most useful for today (beating unassisted humans to the punch for limited-quantity things) are only something it could help with as long as only a very few people have access.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#79

Post by grtteee »

Spooky23 wrote: post #50
TheDong wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about "cowork", aiming to be the claude code of excel files and pdfs and screenshotting your desktop to tell you what's wrong? Like, that feels like it's also a huge amount of token churn ("sure, I can search every xls file on your machine to find the 2023 invoice from that company"), and very early in its adaption curve. Most people are still using AI as a webpage chatbot to ask questions to and copy+paste betw…

Cowork is a dead end. Most people can’t operate onedrive. Tools like Claude are best at answering things when the user understands the question.

Why did they even bother putting resources into that project? Bizarre.

It’s telling how scarce vision is.

Re: OpenAI's $852B valuation faces investor scrutiny amid strategy shift, FT reports

#80

Post by majormajor »

timmmmmmay wrote: post #64
gradus_ad wrote: post #8

Claude Code is extremely easy to set up and use. I suspect its saturation among software professionals is at the majority of the addressable market. What if there are no other killer apps for Enterprise? Only CC will produce the level of token churn that could drive huge profits for model providers. The Enterprise market is not as substantial as the rapid success of CC makes seem.

it's been pretty funny seeing people who did not predict Claude Code's success and previously said the whole sector was a nonsense dead end now saying, well okay there's one massively successful killer app, but what if that's the only one ever?

The scrutiny is because the actions of the company suggest that the company itself has no idea what another killer app could be. Let alone enough to reach a 1T valuation.
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