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For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

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Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#61
post #14
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A promise of Nuclear SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) is that they could be dropped into existing coal fired power plants and leverage the existing power generation equipment. Apparently they are failing to attain traction because despite the promise of lower cost reactors due to them no longer being bespoke, their LCOE cannot compete with renewables. I'd argue that we should subsidize those and help make them happen NO…

The problem with small nuclear reactors is that costs don't scale down linearly with size or power output. Like you still need about the same number of armed security guards to protect the site. They might be a good option for remote sites off the grid where physical security isn't a concern.

Some costs scale down more than linearly, some less. For example, because of the square-cube law, you lose more neutrons through the walls of the reactor, so you often times need a higher level of uranium enrichment, and you produce less energy per ton of fuel, all other things being equal. That’s bad news for SMRs. But many reactor components, being significantly smaller, become much cheaper to manufacture, at least that’s the theory. We don’t know yet. But China is planning to start operating its ACP100 SMR in the next few months, and we will probably hear soon how happy they are with it.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#62
post #3

I do think the Iran crisis should continue to push countries towards nuclear + solar. Like Ukraine helped shift some in Europe back to supporting nuclear after foolishly shutting down reactors.

It's definitely a bit ironic that a war for oil drives the last push for getting rid of it, but I'll take that as well, if logic and sanity didn't help ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#63
post #46
post #3

I do think the Iran crisis should continue to push countries towards nuclear + solar. Like Ukraine helped shift some in Europe back to supporting nuclear after foolishly shutting down reactors.

> foolishly shutting down reactors. Ahem, have I missed something? Do you know more then the rest of us? I mean, has the nuclear waste problem actually been solved?

No*, but the nuclear waste problem is a problem for 50, 100, 1000 years from now.

Climate change is a problem for 50 years ago. And now. Very, very much now.

Having to, in the worst case, designate some small areas that we choose as uninhabitable "nuclear waste zones" in a few decades is vastly preferable to having to designate entire regions of the world as uninhabitable "too hot to live" zones around the same time. And that's if we don't find some better way to handle the nuclear waste.

* Not in the sense of "a permanent and comprehensive solution". However, the actual spent nuclear fuel can now be reprocessed and reused in newer reactor designs, down to a tiny fraction of what we would have considered "nuclear waste" with the earliest designs in the mid-20th century.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#64
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we want to have an industrial economy with 24×7 heavy manufacturing then we need nuclear power for the base load. There's no need to change output much. The amount of batteries needed to keep a huge factory running is ridiculous.

The world's biggest industrial economy, China, installed about 300x more renewable energy than nuclear last year. New nuclear sucks, and baseload is a false concept that can (and is) being synthetically replicated with over-building + storage + transmission + peaking.

How is base load a false concept?

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#65

Extending the life of existing power infra is low-hanging fruit for more power short term, but the economics of renewables are just unstoppable. Article states 93% of new generation capacity was renewable which is good, but I can sense that nimbyism is growing towards wind and solar. Not to mention the animus towards China who has wisely cornered manufacturing of these. The US has shot itself in the foot because of i…

What's even more important is how solar, and to a lesser extent other tech, served as a gateway for China to accumulate electrical engineering, physics, and chemistry talent the US seems committed to offshoring by incentivizing universities to hire the cheapest available grad student talent (inevitably from China). We are training them and not our own.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#66
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The wars in Ukraine and irán have also highlighted what a horrendous insecurity nuclear power plants are. A direct missile attack on one could be catastrophic. The idea that such will never happen is as silly as the idea that there will never be an accident or a tsunami. But passive safety won't stop a missile.

But still after +4 years of war, with extensive targeting of Ukrainian civilians, the nuclear power plants stand while the plants using gas etc. are bombed daily. They are simply too dangerous of a target. Russia enjoys using Zaporizhzhia power plant for some brinkmanship once in a while, but they are well aware of the risk and everything has turned out fine so far. If Ukraine didn't have nuclear energy they would be…

Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant hasn't been bombed because (1) the Russians control it right now (it's behind their lines) so why would they, and (2) the Ukranians live downwind so why would they?

Russia has bombed the switchyards and trandformers of other NPPs though.

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#67
post #45
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This administration has killed dozens of solar + wind projects. Don't get your hopes up, the US is run by people that only want to profit off of natural gas and nothing else matters.

The economics of solar will bulldoze past any need for subsidies from the government.

They're not referencing the subsidies.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-offshore-wind-energy-climat...

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The need for nuclear is simply not clear. Storage has advance so quickly, while nuclear tech has remained stagnant or even gotten more expensive. Eve China, the best nuclear power builders out there, are shifting away from massive nuclear to storage and wind and solar. Without a major technological innovation in the nuclear power space, I don't see how it can compete, except at the poles and in niches with very poor…

Grid Storage is very expensive and right now only has a few hours of capacity. We would need weeks to really replace nuclear.

Saying that grid storage "only has a few hours of capacity" is like saying that a nuclear power reactor "only has 1GW of power." You solve both issues by deploying more. And if you want a longer lithium ion battery installation without the additional power capacity, you can save a bit on inverters.

Grid storage is cheap enough that Texas, a purely profit-driven grid is now overtaking California in the amount of battery storage deployed. 58GWh of new grid storage was added in 2025 alone, and the growth is still exponentialhttps://seia.org/news/united-states-installs-58-gwh-of-new-e...

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#69

Extending the life of existing power infra is low-hanging fruit for more power short term, but the economics of renewables are just unstoppable. Article states 93% of new generation capacity was renewable which is good, but I can sense that nimbyism is growing towards wind and solar. Not to mention the animus towards China who has wisely cornered manufacturing of these. The US has shot itself in the foot because of i…

I still don't understand the economics when it comes to power all the time, not some of the time, and I rarely see that being mentioned in this sort of gung-ho post. I want to feel how you feel - can you help with the specifics there?

Re: For the first time in the U.S., renewables generate more power than natural gas

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I am a big fan of nuclear, I think the issue of land usage for solar is overblown. We use a lot of land for far less useful things. In the end, anything that helps us burn less fossil fuels, I am happy with.

You're also taking away farmland that could be used to produce all kinds of things. Most of the prime solar areas are the same prime areas for agriculture. By creating massive solar farms, you're at the same time, reducing acreage that could be used for range animals and other agriculture: Modeling by the American Farmland Trust (AFT) finds that 83% of projected solar development will be on agricultural land, of whic…

The land use argument is less than zero.

If you replaced ONLY existing fields used to grow corn for ethanol, and turned those into solar panels, you would already exceed the entire current US demand for electricity.

Solar energy is a phenomenal use of land, of which we have enormous amounts of in this country.

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