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The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

aphyr.com

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Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#81

Post by itissid »

Everyday I sit down to build a product for my clients. I am a one man shop _now_. Before I had people helping me. My mental state is not good. A very odd thing happens when claude or codex complete code fast, I begin to think of all the other things that are needed to make AI Agent work better. I begin to worry about problems that other people use to help me with and think "Can I do those too?". Problems like product design, devops work etc. In a bid to try I get nerd sniped by the velocity people seem to have — and these are respected devs not just twitter claims. And because I am so bad at "doing it all" its causing my mental health to suffer because of long hours i have to put it in. I miss my friends and colleagues who I worked with.

I always struggled with coding before 2023, but i made ends meet and put food on the table and could work sane hours and knew what I needed to do. Logically I should have been happy that I did not have to grind on code — and some days I truly am — but it would yield such poor quality of life at such a high cost was not what I expected...

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#82

Post by john_strinlai »

monooso wrote: post #44
MarkusQ wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Misapprehension? If so, they aren't the only one. https://www.theregister.com/2025/02/06/uk_online_safety_act_...

Yes, misapprehension. According to the Ofcom regulation checker [1] (linked to by The Register article), the Online Safety Act does not apply to this content. Here's the most pertinent section (emphasis mine): > Your online service will be exempt if... Users can only interact with content generated by your business/the provider of the online service. Such interactions include: comments, likes/dislikes, ratings/review…

is this legal advice you are offering, as someone practicing law in the uk? because you are all over this thread stating your opinion very confidently.

(conveniently, there is no risk to yourself if you happen to be wrong or misinformed.)

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#83

Post by aphyr »

barbazoo wrote: post #77

> I continue to write all of my words and software by hand, for the reasons I’ve discussed in this piece—but I am not confident I will hold out forever. There it is, an actual em-dash in the wild, written by hand.

I put... I'd guess around 60 hours into editing this piece, and had review from a dozen-odd friends, and I am still finding and fixing errors. I imagine that asking an LLM for a copyediting pass probably would have been helpful, but goshdarnit, I want to show that we can still write somewhat-passable prose by hand.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#84

Post by tossandthrow »

nostrademons wrote: post #74
jerf wrote: post #37

The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve. You can find evidence for both. LLMs probably can't get another 10 times better. But then, almost literally at any minute, someone could come up with a new architecture that can be 10 times better with the same or fewer resources. LLMs strike me as still leaving a lot on…

Somewhere around 2005-2007, when people were wondering if the Internet was done, PG was fond of saying "It has decades to run. Social changes take longer than technical changes." I think we're at a similar point with LLMs. The technical stuff is largely "done" - LLMs have closer to 10% than 10x headroom in how much they will technologically improve, we'll find ways to make them more efficient and burn fewer GPU cycle…

You are very strong on the "slop" bias. Why?

In managing a large to enterprise sized code base, I experience the opposite. I can guarantee a much more homogenous quality of the code base.

It is the opposite of slop I am seeing. And that at a lower cost.

Today,I literally made a large and complex migration of all of our endpoints. Took ai 30 minutes, including all frontends using these endpoints. Works flawlessly, debt principal down.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#85

Post by hk__2 »

dlev_pika wrote: post #78
Papazsazsa wrote: post #6

previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754379

I think I’ve seen this article posted every day for the past week or so

No you haven’t, because it was published today. What you’ve seen are past articles from the same author on the subject that all share the same "The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess:" prefix.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#86

Post by 8n4vidtmkvmk »

forgetfreeman wrote: post #47
jerf wrote: post #37

The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve. You can find evidence for both. LLMs probably can't get another 10 times better. But then, almost literally at any minute, someone could come up with a new architecture that can be 10 times better with the same or fewer resources. LLMs strike me as still leaving a lot on…

"given 10-ish years at least to adapt, we probably can" Social media would like a word...

We can adapt by shutting down social media. We don't really need that. It's been pretty bad since before the AI wave took off.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#87

Post by simoncion »

enraged_camel wrote: post #59

>> Imagine a co-worker who generated reams of code with security hazards, forcing you to review every line with a fine-toothed comb. One who enthusiastically agreed with your suggestions, then did the exact opposite. A colleague who sabotaged your work, deleted your home directory, and then issued a detailed, polite apology for it. One who promised over and over again that they had delivered key objectives when they…

> But you don't fire a table saw because it doesn't know when to stop cutting, right?

If I purchased a table saw and that table saw irregularly and unpredictably jumped past its safeties -as we've plenty of evidence that LLMs [0] do-, then I would [1] immediately stop using that saw, return it for a refund, alert the store that they're selling wildly unsafe equipment, and the relevant regulators that a manufacturer is producing and selling wildly unsafe equipment.

[0] ...whether "agentic" or not...

[1] ...after discovering that yes, this is not a defective unit, but this model of saw working as designed...

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#88

Post by chaps »

tossandthrow wrote: post #84
nostrademons wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Somewhere around 2005-2007, when people were wondering if the Internet was done, PG was fond of saying "It has decades to run. Social changes take longer than technical changes." I think we're at a similar point with LLMs. The technical stuff is largely "done" - LLMs have closer to 10% than 10x headroom in how much they will technologically improve, we'll find ways to make them more efficient and burn fewer GPU cycle…

You are very strong on the "slop" bias. Why? In managing a large to enterprise sized code base, I experience the opposite. I can guarantee a much more homogenous quality of the code base. It is the opposite of slop I am seeing. And that at a lower cost. Today,I literally made a large and complex migration of all of our endpoints. Took ai 30 minutes, including all frontends using these endpoints. Works flawlessly, deb…

Which company do you work at so we can avoid your migrated endpoints?

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#89

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

nostrademons wrote: post #74
jerf wrote: post #37

The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve. You can find evidence for both. LLMs probably can't get another 10 times better. But then, almost literally at any minute, someone could come up with a new architecture that can be 10 times better with the same or fewer resources. LLMs strike me as still leaving a lot on…

Somewhere around 2005-2007, when people were wondering if the Internet was done, PG was fond of saying "It has decades to run. Social changes take longer than technical changes." I think we're at a similar point with LLMs. The technical stuff is largely "done" - LLMs have closer to 10% than 10x headroom in how much they will technologically improve, we'll find ways to make them more efficient and burn fewer GPU cycle…

> Somewhere around 2005-2007, when people were wondering if the Internet was done

Literally who wondered that? Drives me nuts when people start off an argument with an obvious strawman. I remember the time period of 2005-2007 very well, and I don't remember a single person, at least in tech, thinking the Internet was done. I don't know, maybe some ragebait articles were written about it, but being knee-deep in web tech at that time, I remember the general feeling is that it was pretty obvious there was tons to do. E.g. we didn't necessarily know what form mobile would take, but it was obvious to most folks that the tech was extremely immature and that it would have a huge impact on the Internet as it progressed. That's just one example - social media was still in its nascent stages then so it was obvious there would be a ton of work around that as well.

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