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The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

aphyr.com

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Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#61

Post by fnimick »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #10

> more like witchcraft than engineering Welcome to web development buddy > how ML might change the labor market Human labor is expensive. If LLMs do make things cheaper and faster to produce, you don't need that many humans anymore. Again, assuming the improvement is real, there absolutely will be shrinkage for existing businesses in headcount. What remains to be seen is how much cheaper machines make work. 1.5x? 2x?…

> That ship left port like 30 years ago dude. Laborers have no power in the 21st century.

Maybe we should fix that.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#62

Post by headcanon »

Aurornis wrote: post #14
greatpost wrote: post #5

Thank you for this aphyr. My one ask is people seem to put “CEOs” on a pedestal any time things come up, like they’re an alien life form and oh no they’re going to do something terrible. There are good company executives and shitty ones. You should try to start a company and see if you can be one of the better ones.

Class warfare generalizations have become the safe outlet for internet rage because going after CEOs and billionaires is most “punching up” construction that is generally relatable. An unintended side effect that I’ve noticed is that it normalizes bad behavior of CEOs for those who invest a lot of “CEOs bad” grist (Reddit, Threads, even Hacker News). When someone, usually early career, takes a job with a bad CEO afte…

> Early career folk join some toxic startup and stay because the internet told them all CEOs are like this.

I literally did this 12 years ago based on this reasoning, its good you're trying to counter that with the next generation.

With that said, I do wish there was more discourse around systemic issues rather than the usual finger-pointing towards rival social groups. Unfortunately I feel like our language gets in the way, systems issues are more abstract, but "bad people" are more visceral and easy to talk about.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#63

Post by fnimick »

faangguyindia wrote: post #58
jerf wrote: post #37

The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve. You can find evidence for both. LLMs probably can't get another 10 times better. But then, almost literally at any minute, someone could come up with a new architecture that can be 10 times better with the same or fewer resources. LLMs strike me as still leaving a lot on…

We are bottom. It's just a start. We are in era of pre pentium 4 in AI terms.

And you have evidence as basis for this very confident statement... where?

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#65

Post by [deleted] »

tencentshill wrote: post #52
greatpost wrote: post #5

Thank you for this aphyr. My one ask is people seem to put “CEOs” on a pedestal any time things come up, like they’re an alien life form and oh no they’re going to do something terrible. There are good company executives and shitty ones. You should try to start a company and see if you can be one of the better ones.

>My And who are you? An account created for one post? There is a pattern of green account with usernames vaguely related to the subject matter of their comments.

[deleted]

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#66

Post by cratermoon »

aphyr wrote: post #25
cratermoon wrote: post #22

"Another critical lesson is that humans are distinctly bad at monitoring automated processes". Humans are also distinctly bad at noticing certain kinds of bugs in software. Think off-by-one errors, deadlocks, or any sort of bug you've stared at for days and not noticed the one missing or extra semicolon. But LLMs can generate a tsunami of subtly wrong code in the time a reviewer will notice one typo and miss all the…

Yes. For more on this, see section 2: https://aphyr.com/posts/412-the-future-of-everything-is-lies...

Ah I see. I had not gotten that far. Something I got from "Story of Your Life", by Ted Chiang. The sentence, "The rabbit is ready to eat"[1]. Also this old chestnut from NLP:

Fruit flies like a banana. Time flies like and arrow.

[1] The movie Arrival is based on this novella.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#67

Post by recursive »

simianwords wrote: post #32

No you don’t have to review every single line of code produced by AI in fears of security. This is quite exaggerated and I think the author is biased in his own field.

You're right. You don't have to. Unless you want correct and secure code.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#68

Post by elcapitan »

I really appreciate this series of posts, as it serves as a good summary of key points of the discourse around AIs, and links to the relevant articles etc. I find following all those discussions myself exhausting, so if I can find this all in one place and read it nicely grouped, that is very helpful.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#69

Post by faangguyindia »

fnimick wrote: post #63
faangguyindia wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are bottom. It's just a start. We are in era of pre pentium 4 in AI terms.

And you have evidence as basis for this very confident statement... where?

Intuition. It comes from the spiritual awakening and being aware of your consciousness. Only Time will prove what turns out be right.

Re: The future of everything is lies, I guess: Work

#70

Post by MagicMoonlight »

jerf wrote: post #37

The interesting question to me at the moment is whether we are still at the bottom of an exponential takeoff or nearing the top of a sigmoid curve. You can find evidence for both. LLMs probably can't get another 10 times better. But then, almost literally at any minute, someone could come up with a new architecture that can be 10 times better with the same or fewer resources. LLMs strike me as still leaving a lot on…

We aren’t anywhere near AGI. They’ve consumed the entirety of human knowledge and poisoned the well, and it still can’t help but tell you to walk to the car wash.

A peasant villager was sentient without a single book, film or song. You don’t need this much data to be sentient. They’re using a stupid method, and a better one will be discovered some day.

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