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U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#91

Post by wffurr »

ars wrote: post #73
checker wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe your theory is essentially peak oil: When the price of extraction exceeds demand. Oil will still be there, but it would be economically unfeasible to tap, especially with the rise of alternative fuels.

No, that's not peak oil. Peak oil is the point were we have extracted the maximum amount of oil in a given year, after that productions starts reducing - but production could continue for centuries after that.

Physical peak oil is uninteresting. Economic peak oil is much more relevant.

Look in to EROEI for a rigorous treatment of the idea.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#92

Post by ojbyrne »

edj wrote: post #64
ojbyrne wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US != North America.

Good point. I didn't see that. When you throw in Canada's tar sands, it's a lot less surprising that North America could be a net exporter in <20 years.

I believe Mexico figures in those calculations also. According to this field they have large reserves, though extraction is expensive (like oil shale and tar sands).

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#93

Post by yassam »

kyledrake wrote: post #7

I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.

I agree (about climate) and I don't think we can wait for peak oil to hit before we start making much deeper cuts in emissions.

Bill McKibben in Rolling Stone shows that proven fossil fuel reserves are around 5 times higher than we can burn to avoid a very dangerous climate change (beyond the 2C guardrail):

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-te...

More info here: http://math.350.org/

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#94

Post by Someone »

sigkill wrote: post #68
Arjuna wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil." This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that: "The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S." That said, if the numbers and proje…

Although this might be covered in peak oil, there's a specific term that you might find interesting. EROEI - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_inves... Basically, if you need to burn one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil from the ground, then you have already lost. Here, "burn" is used very loosely and is an all encompassing term including electricity for workers, rigs etc. and also the…

if you interpret "need to burn one barrel of oil" as "need the energy of one barrel of oil", there will probably be some leeway, even below 1:1; oil is a very good energy carrier, and pumping up oil carrying a kWh of energy at the cost of more than one kWh of solar electricity or solar heat will probably be more efficient than using that energy to produce (in the literal sense, by chemistry, starting with CO2 and H2O) oil for some time.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#95

Post by Evbn »

roc wrote: post #43
Arjuna wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil." This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that: "The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S." That said, if the numbers and proje…

It's pretty well accepted that oil will never physically run out. Long before even extraction/refining costs make remaining oil infeasibly expensive, supply/demand will send the price spiking to uneconomical levels as soon as oil production so much as slows down relative to growth in world-wide demand. That's what the US increase in extraction is primarily about: trying to avoid price shocks between now and when the…

Increasing efficiency increases consumption , as more activities become economical to more people. ("Sunday drives", commuting to work, etc)

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#96

Post by Evbn »

dataminer wrote: post #8
ck2 wrote: post #3

All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.

I have come to the realization that oil prices do not translate directly to gas prices we pay at the pump. Even with a glut of oil, the gas prices at the pump depends on refineries which are controlled by the local companies. I think the $4 gas is the new normal. Also, the Saudi economy rely a lot on high oil prices so they wont dump more oil in the market.

Gas prices increases follow oil price increases. Gas prices don't decrease much following oil price decreases.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#98

Post by ars »

sigkill wrote: post #71
deelowe wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are on track to deal with these problems (or at least are attempting to be). There are hybrid cars all over the place now, Tesla Motors is doing well as a company and there is a ton of research going into clean energy. These are just extremely difficult problems to deal with. In the meantime, the country can't just let society fail as a whole. The whole world would descend into chaos and war. The US has to do…

When people talk of peak oil, all I see is solutions to oil-as-fuel problems. What about the other industries where you still use oil? Petroleum products are practically everywhere.

You can make petroleum out of literally air. All the necessary atoms are available in air.

What you need to do is join them in the right way - and we know how. All that is necessary is input of energy.

Plus peak oil doesn't mean it has run out, it means we are producing less and less - but we will always produce some.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#99

Post by sigkill »

ars wrote: post #98
sigkill wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When people talk of peak oil, all I see is solutions to oil-as-fuel problems. What about the other industries where you still use oil? Petroleum products are practically everywhere.

You can make petroleum out of literally air. All the necessary atoms are available in air. What you need to do is join them in the right way - and we know how. All that is necessary is input of energy. Plus peak oil doesn't mean it has run out, it means we are producing less and less - but we will always produce some.

If it's really true that with other forms of energy, how much ever dense or otherwise, we'd be able to produce all the hydrocarbons/petroleum products (like wax, plastics etc.) then it's good news to me. Atleast, this will help scientists focus only on one problem for the time-being, viz. hunting for a form to store energy at the highest density possible, safely.

Yes, I do understand peak oil. My concern stems from the fact that if we're producing less oil each successive day, we shouldn't have to make the tough choice between sending oil to refine for gas, or to send it to make plastics, naphtha and wax. That is the dynamic I'm worried about.

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