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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#161

Post by wavemode »

slg wrote: post #154
wavemode wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient Your strategy doesn't work on sportbooks to begin with, because bookmakers don't move the odds with the action. That is, there is no such phenomenon as "the over is exciting therefore overpriced". Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people…

>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way. If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".

> without there being any material change

Without there being any material change you can see. If you had access to all the tips and data and insider information that sportbooks operate with, you could be a bookmaker too.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#162

Post by xrisk »

zahlman wrote: post #123
bargainbin wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.

Even if a cut isn't taken and there aren't other inefficiencies, any money tied up in long-term predictions is earning 0% instead of whatever the current risk-free rate of return is.

Assuming that the prediction market is perfectly priced right? How accurate is that assumption, or are you counting that as an “inefficiency”?

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#163

Post by xrisk »

bofadeez wrote: post #131
kristopolous wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

huh? that sounds like ideology and not empirical observation.

That's just how limit order books work with mark-to-market pricing

Could you point me towards some resource that would help me understand what you wrote? Genuinely curious about how this stuff works

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#165

Post by slg »

wavemode wrote: post #161
slg wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way. If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".

> without there being any material change Without there being any material change you can see . If you had access to all the tips and data and insider information that sportbooks operate with, you could be a bookmaker too.

>If you had access to all the tips and data and insider information that sportbooks operate with

Can you give an example of what you're talking about here? Because it sounds like you're accusing these large publicly trade companies of participating in organized crime. There is regulation when it comes to sports betting that doesn't exist with general prediction markets. An athlete can't just feed a sportsbook "insider information" in the way you're suggesting. The only private info that they are supposed to have is better behavior details that you claim doesn't factor into their decisions.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#166

Post by tempestn »

dheera wrote: post #80
slg wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This all really depends on the efficiency of the market. I think these prediction markets would claim that is their goal, but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient and less likely to be swayed by a popular GitHub repo. Once again, it goes back to the share of the market that is participating for entertainment pu…

> but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. Yes, you can find positive EV trades on Wall Street as well. I've been diving into this a lot lately, all I can say is it's 10X harder to find strategies that work on Wall Street than prediction markets. With one exception. The one easy long-lasting anomaly to exploit on Wall Street which actually does NOT exist on prediction markets: "American stocks go up most of th…

How is it an anomaly? Global stocks go up (or at least have positive total return) over time on average because companies produce value. Ultimately it's true that that money has to come from somewhere, so you can say printing it is monetary policy, but the reason it can be done without runaway inflation is the tangible value produced by the firms.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#167

Post by slg »

dheera wrote: post #157
slg wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way. If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".

I think the distinction is that sports betting companies are basically casinos, need to guard their edge, and although they will tolerate some moving of lines, they will kick out players who consistently eat their edge, and will rig the lines at a place where they can still profit. Different from a prediction market like Polymarket or Kalshi whose income probably comes mostly from transaction fees rather than house e…

These are all reasons supporting my point as they would make sports betting platforms less efficient meaning it would be easier to find arbitrage in their prices (at least temporarily, until you're booted for being too successful).

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#168

Post by wavemode »

slg wrote: post #165
wavemode wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> without there being any material change Without there being any material change you can see . If you had access to all the tips and data and insider information that sportbooks operate with, you could be a bookmaker too.

>If you had access to all the tips and data and insider information that sportbooks operate with Can you give an example of what you're talking about here? Because it sounds like you're accusing these large publicly trade companies of participating in organized crime. There is regulation when it comes to sports betting that doesn't exist with general prediction markets. An athlete can't just feed a sportsbook "inside…

Books like DraftKings and FanDuel get their lines from market makers like Circa. Market makers use a variety of information for setting initial lines (you'll have to go ask them), but one of the main ways they move lines afterwards is professional action. That is, if some person or entity who Circa knows to be a profitable professional better puts down a large bet in a certain direction, Circa will move their line in that direction.

Where did that entity get that information, and how are they right so often? Your guess is as good as mine. I'm not accusing anyone of anything.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#169

Post by some_random »

irishcoffee wrote: post #151
some_random wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally, that's the entire conjecture of this bot. My point is just that the odds of the underlying events are irrelevant, what matters is if they're matched with the betting price

[flagged]

You are either reading way too much into what I am saying or statistically illiterate.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#170

Post by aaron695 »

tekno45 wrote: post #18

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code

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