Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

Post by gruez » Mon, Apr 13, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC

m-hodges wrote: post #13

throwaway2027 wrote: post #5

Already priced in.

The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436

Post by baq » Mon, Apr 13, 2026, 4:27 PM UTC

gruez wrote: post #21

m-hodges wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436

What happens if you flood the market with a bunch of implausible bets like "sun won't rise tomorrow"? Sure, you might try to filter that out with some sort of "seasoning" period (ie. don't buy new markets), but then that means more time for arbitrageurs to correctly price the market, depriving you of any price advantage you might have had.

Post by aprilnya » Mon, Apr 13, 2026, 4:34 PM UTC

nothinkjustai wrote: post #8

thatnerd wrote: post #6

I think we've collectively DDoSed it. I'm getting a 504 timeout. The author [page]( https://github.com/sterlingcrispin ) is there on github, but I can't even find his full list of his repos to confirm it's still there (I also get a 504 on that).

GitHub is down yet again. Guess they forgot to tell their AI “make no mistakes” while vibecoding.

Post by jazzpush2 » Mon, Apr 13, 2026, 4:42 PM UTC

wormpilled wrote: post #4

Basically arbitraging human imagination. People love coming up with fantastical concepts because they get attention, but the more exciting a market is, the less likely it is to actually happen. Reality is usually boring.

Post by sambaumann » Mon, Apr 13, 2026, 4:48 PM UTC