any stats on your returns so far?
Not my project, but author said on X:
> Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No?
Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#12Already priced in.
Except that the mere existence of the market with the question posed for people to consider, probably activates the availability heuristic[1], causing people to overestimate the likelihood.
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#13Already priced in.
The author also noted:
> yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#14Basically arbitraging human imagination. People love coming up with fantastical concepts because they get attention, but the more exciting a market is, the less likely it is to actually happen. Reality is usually boring.
This makes sense to me, but isn't there a risk of increasing the potential payoff high enough that someone is motivated to go out and make the yes side happen? Consider this bot running on us military outcomes or something.
You're thinking like an engineer and making the laughable assumption that "prediction markets" are markets. It's totally unregulated with all sorts of grifts and cheats. One of the platforms was promoting a high-return bet against Rory at the Masters yesterday.
You can make money off of all sorts of stuff. You can "sell" the bets, so there's lots of live pump and dump.
We've gone full circle. The bookie with no neck that smelled like onions was more honest than these platforms.
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#15any stats on your returns so far?
Not my project, but author said on X: > Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857
That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#16Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#17Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not my project, but author said on X: > Why predict the future when 73.4% of all Polymarkets resolve as No? https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043398710013595857
That logic doesn't work because not every bet have even payouts. If there's a market for whether a dice rolls 1 or not, the odds might resolve to "no" 83% of the time, but if it only pays you $1.1 per dollar wagered on "no", you're still losing money.
[deleted]
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#18https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254
They admit no returns.
But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#19Basically, realized vol is lower than implied vol over time. Yes.