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U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#61

Post by artmageddon »

hooande wrote: post #26
ck2 wrote: post #3

All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.

Our increased production of oil is due to the new technology of fracking (fracturing the ground to get oil out of it). The situation is certainly not "We could have been fracking 15 years ago, but we didn't feel like it because Saudi gas was cheap". The energy sector is subject to the same process of technological advance that any other industry is. We came up with a new way to get oil out of the ground and figured o…

Isn't fracking terrible for the environment though? I realize that's not the point of this article, but it makes me wonder if we're setting ourselves up for even more ecological damage.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#62

Post by MrBlue »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #55
khuey wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason that American troops are in Iraq is completely different from, say, the reason that the Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain.

American troops left Iraq nearly a year ago.

Wrong. There are currently 15k to 16k Americans working in Iraq, under the auspices of the State Department. I guarantee they aren't all working desk jobs and God knows how many mercenaries...I mean contractors are still running around. Just because they aren't labelled "combat troops" doesn't mean they don't carry guns and kill people.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#63

Post by buster »

artmageddon wrote: post #61
hooande wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our increased production of oil is due to the new technology of fracking (fracturing the ground to get oil out of it). The situation is certainly not "We could have been fracking 15 years ago, but we didn't feel like it because Saudi gas was cheap". The energy sector is subject to the same process of technological advance that any other industry is. We came up with a new way to get oil out of the ground and figured o…

Isn't fracking terrible for the environment though? I realize that's not the point of this article, but it makes me wonder if we're setting ourselves up for even more ecological damage.

I'm wondering the same. The whole idea of fracking sounds like a very high risk with uncertain aftermath.

Maybe the U.S. should invest more in green energy then in "bad" energy and a new even worse way to get to it..

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#64

Post by edj »

ojbyrne wrote: post #47
edj wrote: post #33

As other commenters have pointed out, the US only overtakes SA for a few years before falling behind again: "By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s)" So maybe that part of the story is overblown. But perhaps more interesting is that the US will supposedly become a net exporter shortly thereafter: "The result is a continued…

US != North America.

Good point. I didn't see that. When you throw in Canada's tar sands, it's a lot less surprising that North America could be a net exporter in <20 years.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#65

Post by kaonashi »

ck2 wrote: post #3

All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.

Do those troops have more pressing engagements elsewhere? Or are they just going to be unemployed? To the extent that it's the latter, we really won't save anything.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#66

Post by epscylonb »

roc wrote: post #43
Arjuna wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil." This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that: "The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S." That said, if the numbers and proje…

It's pretty well accepted that oil will never physically run out. Long before even extraction/refining costs make remaining oil infeasibly expensive, supply/demand will send the price spiking to uneconomical levels as soon as oil production so much as slows down relative to growth in world-wide demand. That's what the US increase in extraction is primarily about: trying to avoid price shocks between now and when the…

The problem with oil, is that it is an inelastic commodity. During the oil shocks of the 70's prices had to rise by 400% before demand started to fall.

Also the notion of a country being energy independent when relying upon oil is a silly one. In the global economy, we want everyone to have relatively cheap energy, if not the global standard of living will fall.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#67

Post by clarkm »

artmageddon wrote: post #61
hooande wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our increased production of oil is due to the new technology of fracking (fracturing the ground to get oil out of it). The situation is certainly not "We could have been fracking 15 years ago, but we didn't feel like it because Saudi gas was cheap". The energy sector is subject to the same process of technological advance that any other industry is. We came up with a new way to get oil out of the ground and figured o…

Isn't fracking terrible for the environment though? I realize that's not the point of this article, but it makes me wonder if we're setting ourselves up for even more ecological damage.

Most of the anti-fracking rhetoric you see online is overblown. Sure, it might have some negative externalities (like all energy production), but domestic fracking is certainly more environmentally friendly than Saudi oil production.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#68

Post by sigkill »

Arjuna wrote: post #37
notatoad wrote: post #23

Thee article seems to skip pretty quickly over what, to me, is the important point: >Will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting in 2020 So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil. I think it might be better to just keep buying from the Saudis and keep a little bit in the ground.

"So the us is going to start pulling it's oil out of the ground a lot faster. And then it's going to run out of oil." This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that: "The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S." That said, if the numbers and proje…

Although this might be covered in peak oil, there's a specific term that you might find interesting. EROEI - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_returned_on_energy_inves...

Basically, if you need to burn one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil from the ground, then you have already lost. Here, "burn" is used very loosely and is an all encompassing term including electricity for workers, rigs etc. and also the physical petrol required for transport to the refinery and end customers. The cost obviously also includes the initial investment and factors in the life of the rig installation itself as well.

It seems that we're currently at an EROEI of 10:1 and it's declining pretty steadily (kind of obvious). The wiki article is pretty informative. And, a cursory search on reddit for the term "peak oil" also returns quite a few interesting results. Caveat Emptor though, since there are some loony conspiracy theories posted as well, so it's up to you to sift the wheat from the chaff.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#69

Post by jdminhbg »

dmritard96 wrote: post #59
jdminhbg wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need one more step -- cars as a % of American transportation activities.

I agree. http://climate.dot.gov/about/transportations-role/overview.h... looks like maybe 82% if you include trucks with cars

Good breakdown. As far as things that can be replaced by Priuses and Teslas (original point upthread), I think you're looking at just the 34% from passenger cars. So you end up with taking a bite out of (not zeroing) 2% of global emissions.

Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

#70

Post by kamjam »

deelowe wrote: post #49
kamjam wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$4 a gallon is peanuts. Price of gas in Rome, Italy was 1.87 euro per litre when I was there in July. Per litre, not gallon! So people get around town on little mopeds, motorbikes, small cars and a lot of SMART cars around as well. I agree there is a lot of forward momentum with hybrid/electric cars in terms on technological advancement, but the uptake in the US is abysmal. Just because you drive an electric car does…

Consumers are not the issue here really. It's cargo that's the concern. That's where most of the pollution is (from oil anyways) and that's where the price of oil affects the economy. I don't think people realize just how much the US is dependent on oil for it's goods. Most consumer products are made overseas, shipped into a port, offloaded onto a train, and then delivered to retail locations via trucks. On top of th…

Yes, I know consumers are not the issue. Cargo is, and that's why I brought it up, your original argument only mentions cars specifically and everyone driving hybrid is going to make little impact and as things currently stand everyone driving fully electric won't do squat. I think we are beating the same drum though.

The map of country size comparison... should the land mass off a country determine your "allowed usage" or should be be proportional to population? Since the higher your population the more energy needs you have... I'm sure there is some complex set of graphs related to this somewhere...

The sarc comment is for your extremely generalized comment, it's very much an American view on the "rest of world" and makes you sound very ignorant. I fully agree with your US influence comment though, and not just within that region, but that's a whole other story...

What the US needs to do is reduce it dependence on oil so that it becomes less difficult to hurt it's economy. Oil will run out at some point (aside from the irreparable harm that is being down to the environment) and at the moment all they are doing is shifting the problem on to the next generation.

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