U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020

It's true that technology has improved, but it's likely that with more price pressure to improve the technology, these innovations would have come sooner. In addition, fracking is more work, period. It requires more energy than traditional drilling, and while this can be incrementally improved, it's fundamentally a much more energy intensive process that can't just be "optimized away."

"By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s)"

So maybe that part of the story is overblown. But perhaps more interesting is that the US will supposedly become a net exporter shortly thereafter:

"The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030."

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 - Executive Summary http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication... [PDF]

So people get around town on little mopeds, motorbikes, small cars and a lot of SMART cars around as well. I agree there is a lot of forward momentum with hybrid/electric cars in terms on technological advancement, but the uptake in the US is abysmal. Just because you drive an electric car does not mean there is no CO2, that electricity needs to be generated from somewhere and unless that source is renewable energy then you are back to square one. But it's not just cars you need to think about: generation of electricity, airplanes, ships, cheap exports from the rest of the world... I remember reding a study a few years ago stating that shipping outputs a lot more CO2 than air travel. Also, ships use the cheapest, nastiest, left over fuel from the refinement process so ends up throwing our more CO2. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/03/travelsenv...

I agree the US probably feels like it has to do something, but constantly patching over the cracks is never really going to fix the problem.

It can't allow itself to become wholly dependent on oil produced by enemies of the state in an inherently unstable region ran by crazy dictators and terrorists.

Yes. Thanks for the insightful comments. I'll be sure to vote you in for president when you run for election.

This does not appear to be an entirely accurate conclusion, according to the article. For example, the article explains that:

"The desert kingdom is due to become the biggest producer again by 2030, pumping 11.4 million barrels a day versus 10.2 million in the U.S."

That said, if the numbers and projections are accurate, then the U.S. will still be producing, but the output will be lower, largely because of changes in the sources of energy:

"'In the United States, low prices and abundant supply see gas overtake oil around 2030 to become the largest fuel in the energy mix,' according to the report, written by a team of researchers led by Birol."

On the topic of running out of oil, I have always wondered (just a theory for discussion here): maybe oil will never physically run out, but rather what will happen is that once all of the easily-accessible supplies have been expended, it will simply become so cost-prohibitive to extract that we will eventually be forced to change and adapt. Hopefully we will change sooner than later. (Also, when I say "we", I mean all of us as humans, not a specific country).

Edit: Thanks for responding roc and checker. You gave me a further reading point (i.e., peak oil).

PS. noteworthy in the article is the mentioning of Obama, who was pushing for such a coal-to-oil technology to be brought to US.