@ChuckMcM is correct - this is an advertisement for fracking.
U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
11–20 of 99 posts
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#12It'll be interesting to see the extent to which this ends up being good or bad. In direct economic terms, most likely good: lower energy prices make some industries more competitive, and direct fuel exports (like any commodity export) are a source of income. On the other hand, technological advancements tend to come from constraints, so the U.S. could be setting itself up for 10-30 years of easy living on cheap oil/gas, but fall behind places like Europe, or perhaps even Asia, on R&D and production of more energy-efficient technologies, or other sources of power generation, which might eventually turn out to be important. Hard to say.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#13All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.
The Saudis and other oil exporters don't actually set the price of oil directly. OPEC have historically controlled oil prices indirectly by dialling their output up or down, but most producers are running flat out and have been for ages.
Saudi used to keep around 1.5m BPD production in hand to moderate supply disruptions and keep prices stable, but now they are running much closer to their maximum practical output capacity. Even if they opened all the taps and pushed forward more aggressively to bring more on line it would have a much more subdued effect than in the past. The days when they could materially affect prices on an ongoing basis are over.
Contrary to popular opinion $4 gas isn't really the producer's fault. Maybe they could get it down to $3.50 for a while (pure guess), but the idea they could just turn a spigot and gas would be £2.50 a gallon again is unrealistic.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#14I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.
People are on track to deal with these problems (or at least are attempting to be). There are hybrid cars all over the place now, Tesla Motors is doing well as a company and there is a ton of research going into clean energy. These are just extremely difficult problems to deal with. In the meantime, the country can't just let society fail as a whole. The whole world would descend into chaos and war.
The US has to do something to protect the country and the economy. It can't allow itself to become wholly dependent on oil produced by enemies of the state in an inherently unstable region ran by crazy dictators and terrorists. So what do they do? They hedge and ensure the country can keep a seat at the negotiation table when things get tough. Given the size of the US and the dependance on trucks, rail, and shipping to move cargo, even rather small changes in the price of oil can drastically alter the economy.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#15All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.
Some might argue that won't always be a possibility, assuming it even is right now.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2007/05/northern_ghawar....
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#16All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.
I have come to the realization that oil prices do not translate directly to gas prices we pay at the pump. Even with a glut of oil, the gas prices at the pump depends on refineries which are controlled by the local companies. I think the $4 gas is the new normal. Also, the Saudi economy rely a lot on high oil prices so they wont dump more oil in the market.
> oil prices do not translate directly to gas prices we pay at the pump
Technically true, but the correlation is usually very strong: http://www.gasbuddy.com/retail_price_chart.aspx?city1=USA%20...
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#17I find this hard to believe. Compare http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9584
You can always be assured that predictions based on extrapolation in systems like energy are always wrong. The claim (that we'll out produce Saudi Aramco by 2020) is bogus. You read comments like this "U.S. oil imports will drop to about 4 million barrels a day in 10 years from a current average of 10 million because of new production and stricter fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, which will curb demand,…
> The extraction companies have not shown a particular willingness to choose 'safety' over 'get it done' yet.
I'm not as negative as most people I know on fracking, but I do have some worry that there's a culture like this in place currently. I've been particularly surprised by surface spills/leaks of fracking chemicals in Pennsylvania, which just seems sloppy. If you're trying to convince the public that a fairly new technology, which people have concerns about, is safe and won't contaminate groundwater, you should definitely be sure to get the "easy" parts completely right, such as competently storing chemicals above ground.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#18Even if output reaches that level, exports won't because the US uses so much more oil than Saudi Arabia. As demand grows, the US can still be a net importer and still have the same problems related to petroleum reliance.
The US was a net exporter of petroleum products in 2011.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#19I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.
Agreed. Nuclear has had a rough go of it as a result of Japan's problems (and vise versa to be fair) but in general it seems like electric cars and nuclear are our only real options to at least try and keep up with climate change. There are also some strong cases for cost reductions and safety improvements for new Nuclear facilities as a result of improved building techniques and more generic designs.
It is important that we be energy independent but I am totally disappointed at the lack of energy (minimal pun intended) for renewables and alternatives. In the presidential debates the bulk of energy conversation was dedicated to strutting thier oil and fossil fuel cred - hardly any other focus.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#20I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.
So you're a supporter of fracking then, right?