Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

coindesk.com

141–150 of 238 posts

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was even a brief moment when the price of an oil barrel went negative More accurate: The price for an _option_ to buy/sell oil was negative, not the price of the barrell itself.

How could the option price go below 0? Why couldn't someone just not exercise it in that case?

Unlike equity options, commodity future options are typically written with european style exercise rules.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#142
post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you see the use case of censorship resitant payment as something we should allow or not (such as paying the Ayatollah to go through the strait). I for one don't.

But even of you do see the use, why not proof of stake rather than proof of work?

I'm not an expert on this, but maybe it is easier to pressure the verifiers to not verify sanctioned entities? Seems to be already happening with Ethereum US nodes maintaining OFAC lists. Maybe one can also pressure them to verify alternative blocks without the transactions, then they won't be possible.

Other than that, it is probably tradition at this point, like with Gold.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#143
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If "difficulty drops, costs go down" so ought the price? Isn't that basic economics? Or are they chasing the "phase difference", lag, between supply demand?

It's the reverse. As price per coin goes up, more folks will find mining profitable and invest in mining operations. Difficulty goes up until it's no longer attractive for anyone to add to the global hash rate. As price per coin goes down, less of those operations are profitable and fewer new people will find it to be a good investment. Difficulty stays the same or goes down. Due to capital expenses, difficulty is mo…

It's both. You're talking about the demand curve. The other thing is the supply curve.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only works when the difficult drop rates are below miner leaving rates. Which in normal times, are something taken for granted, but once it does happen, the edge case collapse the entire system. edit: the earlier language is not exact, the scenario is an exponential drop of value that results in exponential drop in miner willing to mine until this discrepancy can be resolved. i.e. the system is not protected aga…

> but once it does happen, the edge case collapse the entire system. Which is when exactly, and how likely is that to happen? It hasn't happened yet in ~14 years, but I guess "never say never". There is a lot of money saying it won't happen very soon though.

If it happens it'll probably the result of a positive feedback loop forming: miners leaving slowing down transactions and affecting utility/faith in the system resulting in people selling, meaning more miners leaving, etc. That said, I don't know of any clear examples of this happening to any other proof of work coins: I think in general other parts of a cryptocurrency tend to fail first, it requires a particularly fast death for this kind of thing to happen.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#145
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It sounds very similar to things like oil production, gold mining, and even farming. When the price is high, everyone wants in on the action. As supply explodes, the prices drop. Once prices get low enough, the costs to pump the next barrel of oil, find the next ounce of gold, or harvest the next acre of a certain crop; exceed the reward. When that happens, wells are shut down, mining operations suspended, and differ…

Satoshi thought of everything, man.

Except people wanting to do more than 15 transactions a minute. Or that to scale everyone would need to store a petabyte size blockchain.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#146
post #139

It's 2026 and there's still people that believe that proof-of-work makes sense as a consensus mechanism

There is a breakthrough on a more productive Po(useful)W: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47430951

Isn't the whole point of PoW that the work done is otherwise useless? I mean: you invest money (in form of your hardware/electricity bill) to mine a block, and that ensures that whoever would like to fork the chain has to spend at least as much money to do it. If PoW can earn you extra money outside of the Bitcoin ecosystem (by making the work "useful") it lowers the cost of the 51% attack, potentially making it profitable.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#147
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a soft failure-mode for bitcoin where due to the alternating difficulty adjustment, you could end up with people only mining every other 2016-block adjustment. Let's call this cycle A and cycle B. If A is too hard, miners drop out, cycle B gets easier, miners flood back, cycle A gets harder. This results in the hard cycle getting longer and the easy cycle getting shorter. This isn't completely critical as the…

The damping effect is that part of your costs are the hardware, space, depreciation etc. leaving that stuff idle costs money - so it makes sense to mine in the less profitable periods too.

Yes though AFAIK electricity is a large %

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#148
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a soft failure-mode for bitcoin where due to the alternating difficulty adjustment, you could end up with people only mining every other 2016-block adjustment. Let's call this cycle A and cycle B. If A is too hard, miners drop out, cycle B gets easier, miners flood back, cycle A gets harder. This results in the hard cycle getting longer and the easy cycle getting shorter. This isn't completely critical as the…

The damping effect is that part of your costs are the hardware, space, depreciation etc. leaving that stuff idle costs money - so it makes sense to mine in the less profitable periods too.

Crypto-miners are switching to AI token farming when bitcoin is low. They have compute that's both installed and powered, so why not do what pays better?

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#149
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a soft failure-mode for bitcoin where due to the alternating difficulty adjustment, you could end up with people only mining every other 2016-block adjustment. Let's call this cycle A and cycle B. If A is too hard, miners drop out, cycle B gets easier, miners flood back, cycle A gets harder. This results in the hard cycle getting longer and the easy cycle getting shorter. This isn't completely critical as the…

The damping effect is that part of your costs are the hardware, space, depreciation etc. leaving that stuff idle costs money - so it makes sense to mine in the less profitable periods too.

That depends on each miner's energy costs, so long as (variable cost of energy - revenue from coins) < fixed costs. It's still negative cashflow either way, but the monthly losses have to be weighed against the cost of going insolvent and losing the hardware.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A perpetual boom bust cycle? Sounds healthy.

It is a negative feedback loop, so yes, it makes systems stable.

Technically you could have negative feedback result in a system that diverges further and further from some baseline, until it eventually collapses. This is usually because the gain of the feedback signal is too high.
Post reply on HN