"AI polls" are fake polls
natesilver.net
"AI polls" are fake polls
1–8 of 8 posts
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#2This whole synthetic sampling thing really boggles my mind. It’s like… it’s difficult to come up with an example that doesn’t feel like a hyperbolic strawman. It’s just that dumb.
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#3AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake.
Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#4[dead]
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#5AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake. Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).
That’s just fundamentally not a meaningful argument
You need to assess calibration. Not “accuracy”. What does “in play” even mean?
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#6[dead]
No not really. It’s just if you ask the model what percent of people like apples, it doesn’t know the answer. We don’t even need to get to the level of change of opinions.
Models don’t “poll” their training data. If you give it five yes answers and five no answers, it doesn’t think that it’s 50/50.
If you give it actual data it can derive it, but that would be a poll
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#7[dead]
No not really. It’s just if you ask the model what percent of people like apples, it doesn’t know the answer. We don’t even need to get to the level of change of opinions. Models don’t “poll” their training data. If you give it five yes answers and five no answers, it doesn’t think that it’s 50/50. If you give it actual data it can derive it, but that would be a poll
[dead]
Re: "AI polls" are fake polls
#8AI polls are fake, real polls are fake, and Nate Silver's modeling is REALLY fake. Nate Silver implied Florida was in play in 2024 for Democrats, then it went +13 R. This is after he spent 9 years clinging to polling which systematically undercounted Republican support due to either sampling bias or shy voters, or were simply outright fraud in other cases (Selzer's Iowa poll).
That’s just fundamentally not a meaningful argument You need to assess calibration. Not “accuracy”. What does “in play” even mean?
In play means plus or minus 3 points. Claiming that right before a +13 result means your models are fraudulent.