U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
bloomberg.com
U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
1–10 of 99 posts
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#2I find this hard to believe. Compare http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9584
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#3All it took was $4 gas.
All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months.
But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#4I have to say I'm skeptical about this, although a Saudi Arabia decline in production could make it possible.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#5Even if output reaches that level, exports won't because the US uses so much more oil than Saudi Arabia. As demand grows, the US can still be a net importer and still have the same problems related to petroleum reliance.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#6Even if output reaches that level, exports won't because the US uses so much more oil than Saudi Arabia. As demand grows, the US can still be a net importer and still have the same problems related to petroleum reliance.
The article addresses that, domestic use is down. We already export quite a lot of refined oil as it is to countries that don't have refining capacity.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#7I think stopping the destruction of our planet's climate is more important than becoming oil independent and having cheap petroleum, personally. This is troubling news to me, I was hoping that peak oil would start people down the track of dealing with these problems.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#8All it took was $4 gas. All the Saudis have to do is drop their price to the point where gas is $2.50 again and suddenly all the US companies go under in 12 months. But think how much we'll save by having less than 10k troops in the middle-east someday.
I have come to the realization that oil prices do not translate directly to gas prices we pay at the pump. Even with a glut of oil, the gas prices at the pump depends on refineries which are controlled by the local companies. I think the $4 gas is the new normal. Also, the Saudi economy rely a lot on high oil prices so they wont dump more oil in the market.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#9I find this hard to believe. Compare http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9584
You can always be assured that predictions based on extrapolation in systems like energy are always wrong. The claim (that we'll out produce Saudi Aramco by 2020) is bogus.
You read comments like this "U.S. oil imports will drop to about 4 million barrels a day in 10 years from a current average of 10 million because of new production and stricter fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks, which will curb demand, Birol said." and you want to say 'Bzzzt! And thanks for playing' as you consider that people with better gas mileage drive more, they don't 'not drive'. The reason is not intuitive (see the Jevon's Paradox [1]) but it is also not unexplainable either.
It will be interesting if significant chunks of our driving population switches to electrics. That is because the electricity production facilities are built on coal, gas, and nuclear and that could shift our consumption needle off oil toward those other forms. But nobody is yet extrapolating even 10% electric car ownership by 2020 much less the 20 - 30% that would be needed to move the numbers on a national scale.
So the the next question is, "OK if this is bogus, why even write it?" and if I had to guess I would say it was a 'feel good' piece about Fracking to try to offset the ever growing evidence that the dangers of hydraulic fracturing require much more oversight and regulation if we want to do it safely. The extraction companies have not shown a particular willingness to choose 'safety' over 'get it done' yet.
Re: U.S. Oil Output to Overtake Saudi Arabia’s by 2020
#10Wonderful - we'll be living in an oil rich utopia - right?