Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

coindesk.com

31–40 of 238 posts

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#31
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup The problem with BTC going down is that it's a double whammy of not only BTC going down but also the cost of its shovels going up Before: BTC pays $100k but a shovel costs $300 Now: BTC pays $70k but a shovel costs $$?? Bitcoin asked the right questions but came back with the wrong answers

What's a shovel?

They're using the analogy of mining for gold. the cost of a shovel/pitchfork goes up when the price of gold goes down - which is a double whammy

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#32
post #13

> When miners can't cover costs, they sell bitcoin to fund operations Surely they should stop producing until its profitable again, or am I missing something?

If everyone stopped mining transactions couldn't go through anymore and the value of bitcoin would drop. If you're heavily invested in bitcoin that's bad. Also miners try to squeeze in their preferred transactions which they can't do when they're not mining. Finally the costs dont drop to zero when you turn the miners off, so the loss from mining might be less than the loss when not mining.

Isn’t mining and transactions separate? Sure you need to have online participants, but they don’t have to actively mine, right?

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#33

> When miners can't cover costs, they sell bitcoin to fund operations Surely they should stop producing until its profitable again, or am I missing something?

It's a very low effort article. There are several places where the cost of electricity is roughly zero and state actors have interest in Bitcoin (Iran/Russia) or strong actors more powerful than the state (Libya/Venezuela). It's not surprising that this is good news for them as mining rigs for Bitcoin are much lighter to transport than the ones for oil.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#34
post #7

The headline is dramatic but this is literally how bitcoin is designed to work. Miners leave, difficulty drops, costs go down, mining becomes profitable again. The interesting part isn’t the loss per coin, it’s how long the lag between unprofitable mining and difficulty adjustment keeps forced selling pressure on the market.

What does “leave” in this context mean?

"stop"

(Obviously the equipment doesn't go away. You can start it again. But if you can't make a buck doing something, you won't do it.)

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#35
post #7

The headline is dramatic but this is literally how bitcoin is designed to work. Miners leave, difficulty drops, costs go down, mining becomes profitable again. The interesting part isn’t the loss per coin, it’s how long the lag between unprofitable mining and difficulty adjustment keeps forced selling pressure on the market.

What does “leave” in this context mean?

Turn off their mining rigs.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#36
post #7

The headline is dramatic but this is literally how bitcoin is designed to work. Miners leave, difficulty drops, costs go down, mining becomes profitable again. The interesting part isn’t the loss per coin, it’s how long the lag between unprofitable mining and difficulty adjustment keeps forced selling pressure on the market.

What does “leave” in this context mean?

Stop mining.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#38
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If everyone stopped mining transactions couldn't go through anymore and the value of bitcoin would drop. If you're heavily invested in bitcoin that's bad. Also miners try to squeeze in their preferred transactions which they can't do when they're not mining. Finally the costs dont drop to zero when you turn the miners off, so the loss from mining might be less than the loss when not mining.

Isn’t mining and transactions separate? Sure you need to have online participants, but they don’t have to actively mine, right?

No, mining is exactly what makes transactions go through, computing the next result in chain, certifying that the transaction happened.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#39
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only works when the difficult drop rates are below miner leaving rates. Which in normal times, are something taken for granted, but once it does happen, the edge case collapse the entire system. edit: the earlier language is not exact, the scenario is an exponential drop of value that results in exponential drop in miner willing to mine until this discrepancy can be resolved. i.e. the system is not protected aga…

No but if more miners leave then dofficulty with drop faster right? Its modelling supply and demand curves which are a stable equilibrium in these circumstances

Might be wrong about what Aperocky is alluding to but there is an entirely theoretical edge case. The time to the next difficulty adjustment is based on the current speed of mining, and the possible change in difficulty is capped. With enough minors leaving it will drop the speed of mining/network speed/ and push out the expected time to the next difficulty adjustment. I can't think of any realistic way this can occur given the miners that stay will (personally) be producing blocks as often, the increase in time being balanced out by being a larger proportionate of the mining rate. They don't care if they get 1% of the blocks, which average about 20 mins per block or 5% of the blocks that average 100mins per block.

Re: Bitcoin miners are losing on every coin produced as difficulty drops

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I was mining circa 2017 - 2021 (approx. 1 BTC/month and 25-30 ETH/month) and planning it all out, I prepared myself psychologically to operate for up to 2 years without any profits or selling. It was a hard pill to swallow and a huge risk; my costs were $8500/month in electrical and then another ~$2200 on a lease for the warehouse. When it dropped to $3,000/BTC a few months after I came online and stayed there f…

Seems like you could have made that same bet by just buying BTC with that money and doing twice as good.

I mined in 2014 with free electricity and that was true even then. That's with hindsight though, the mining reward is more predictable than that market price would increase (more than) equivalently.
Post reply on HN