Nowhere is safe • Hacker News Board

Re: Nowhere is safe

#161

Post by trhway » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:01 AM UTC

i already wrote that drones (or more precisely - cheap semi- and fully autonomous high-precision weapons) are a new strategic parity weapon https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44203848 - it has been playing that role in Ukraine vs. Russia, and now in Iran vs. USA.

Interesting that the original post demonstrates the same reaction to that new strategic parity weapon as the one caused back then by the original strategic parity weapon - the nuclear - to dig into the ground on the basis of the same key principle of "nowhere is safe"

I'm sure that even in the future when another strategic parity weapon emerges - say it would be a throwing rocks from space or a cheap mass production of autonomous nanobots precisely delivering some strong poison/pathogen - our first reaction would be the same urge to dig into the ground.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#162

Post by cryptonector » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:09 AM UTC

Imagine the cost of a shahed drone being as low as $5,000, or less. Imagine the cartels south of the U.S. having tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of them. It could get painful fast. That's one thing this war is showing.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#163

Post by llbbdd » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:14 AM UTC

roncesvalles wrote: post #105

brianjlogan wrote: post #15

Hmm... Interestingly one does not look at the solutions to de-escalate conflict. Despite the proxy wars we've had a relatively peaceful world since WW1/WW2. Please humor me here, I'm not saying the world is horror free. The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. Why is it that we can dream up more conflict but not peac…

>The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. The fallacy in the line of thinking that "why don't we all just shake hands, say something nice, and get along with each other" comes from the erroneous belief that everyone in the world just wants peace and material prosperity for themselves and their people. This isn't the…

Of all things there's a relevant Tumblr post from nearly a decade ago that I often think everyone should consider (in agreement BTW):

"If your solution to some problem relies on “If everyone would just…” then you do not have a solution. Everyone is not going to just. At not time in the history of the universe has everyone just, and they’re not going to start now."

Re: Nowhere is safe

#164

Post by brianjlogan » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:18 AM UTC

roncesvalles wrote: post #105

brianjlogan wrote: post #15

Hmm... Interestingly one does not look at the solutions to de-escalate conflict. Despite the proxy wars we've had a relatively peaceful world since WW1/WW2. Please humor me here, I'm not saying the world is horror free. The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. Why is it that we can dream up more conflict but not peac…

>The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. The fallacy in the line of thinking that "why don't we all just shake hands, say something nice, and get along with each other" comes from the erroneous belief that everyone in the world just wants peace and material prosperity for themselves and their people. This isn't the…

I know a number of people who grew up in extreme poverty who are extremely well reasoned here and others who are extremely spoiled and fortunate who would gladly enter into a holy war.

I don't think you can quite generalize that much.

Additionally cooperation is an evolutionary advantage and world war is a species level threat now that we have nuclear weapons.

I don't believe that everyone wants peace. I believe the people who have the ability to shape policy and invest capital would want peace.

Which I think is also complicated. Kind of harkens back to the cliche that WW1 was caused by old people romanticizing war. Most letters between the heads of states confirmed they were anticipating industrial destruction and death but they felt the pressure to initiate war anyway.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#165

Post by 01100011 » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:19 AM UTC

cryptonector wrote: post #162

Imagine the cost of a shahed drone being as low as $5,000, or less. Imagine the cartels south of the U.S. having tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of them. It could get painful fast. That's one thing this war is showing.

Things are cheap and easy enough that this sort of state of the art warfare is accessible to individuals.

It was obvious ten years ago that this was coming, but saying so just made you sound crazy.

I said a similar thing when the Nordstream pipeline was popped. Basically anyone with, say, $400k to rent a boat and a work class underwater ROV could have done it. Sure, pricey, but that's low enough that a single individual could have financed it.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#166

Post by 01100011 » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:22 AM UTC

gmuslera wrote: post #25

There is a layer over this that should be noticed. Nowhere is safe, because international order is a joke. You can conduct invasions for land, to exterminate population, to whatever Trump is doing, every instrument of international law was just useless, or even cooperative with the stronger offender. Which will be the ones taking advantage of this situation? China, Brazil? Everything is forgotten or accepted with the…

We're finding out quickly that international law is a farce and might makes right, more or less.

You can defend yourself with letters of strong condemnation only as long as someone stronger doesn't want what you have.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#167

Post by squibonpig » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:23 AM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #146

brianjlogan wrote: post #15

Hmm... Interestingly one does not look at the solutions to de-escalate conflict. Despite the proxy wars we've had a relatively peaceful world since WW1/WW2. Please humor me here, I'm not saying the world is horror free. The emphasis I would hope would also be for improved negotiation tactics, better resource sharing and goal alignment between groups of people. Why is it that we can dream up more conflict but not peac…

>Why is it that we can dream up more conflict but not peaceful scenarios? Because nature is filled with examples. Look at the plants around you. They are nice and peaceful, right? No wars with other plants, no battles for life and death and resources... Well if you don't know anything about plants that's exactly what you'd think. And I'm not really talking about animals and insects that are trying to consume them, pl…

Human cooperation is another survival strategy, and a very effective one when achievable. Peace in no way disagrees with what you said, anymore than plant cooperation with bacteria is a counterexample.

Re: Nowhere is safe

#168

Post by squibonpig » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:25 AM UTC

ms_menardi wrote: post #137

I had this idea for a "drill" that I'd like to make someday. Basically it was a box with several tentacles snaking out of it. The tentacles would each have a drill on the end, and they would dig holes in a surface. These holes would be spaced apart and they would be on the outer edge of where the tunnel is meant to be. The silicon arms would be full of actuators that measured their resistance in terms of the momentum…

I figure a big issue is you still need to move all of that displaced rock and earth out of the way

Re: Nowhere is safe

#169

Post by senordevnyc » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:27 AM UTC

ms_menardi wrote: post #137

I had this idea for a "drill" that I'd like to make someday. Basically it was a box with several tentacles snaking out of it. The tentacles would each have a drill on the end, and they would dig holes in a surface. These holes would be spaced apart and they would be on the outer edge of where the tunnel is meant to be. The silicon arms would be full of actuators that measured their resistance in terms of the momentum…

I’m having trouble picturing this, I think. Maybe this will help: after this big hammer hits the rock with the outline of drilled holes around it…where do you think the rock goes? It’s not hollow under there…

Re: Nowhere is safe

#170

Post by 01100011 » Sat, Apr 11, 2026, 1:28 AM UTC

I think the solution is more drones(sorry, American here). The only cost effective way to fight drones is similarly cheap drones or possibly energy weapons. Given the cost of energy weapons, you can't deploy them everywhere you want protection.

Therefore the only solution is drones.

You could try an idealistic approach like making drones illegal and attempting to control proliferation, but as we've seen with other weapons that's really not an effective strategy.