Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet? • Hacker News Board

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#121

Post by colechristensen » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 1:31 AM UTC

anonfunction wrote: post #61

elSidCampeador wrote: post #57

I believe NASA / EU provide daily satellite imagery for free (which is of relatively high quality too). I wonder if there's a way to take that data, and training some kind of image recognition model that figures out "movement" or something to the same end? Would be cool to see

Funnily enough, I did find a few satellite sources at the beginning for the map background and noticed that all the ships seemed to be scrubbed from the image. It's an interesting idea, thanks for the comment! The sources I used were: - ESRI World Imagery[1] — free satellite tiles, high-res, but ships are stripped out from the imagery - NASA GIBS - VIIRS[2] — near real-time daily satellite imagery from NASA, but reso…

It turns out during a war having real time satellite imagery of shipping would be a poor choice.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#122

Post by nodesocket » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 1:35 AM UTC

auntienomen wrote: post #118

nodesocket wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

The problem with prediction markets is fundamentally that they're unregulated. Modern equities and futures markets are highly evolved and rather carefully regulated systems. We've spent centuries learning what the failure modes are and how to guard against them. It's never perfect, it's never going to be perfect -- it's fundamentally a voting system -- but in general, we get liquidity and price discovery at a relativ…

Agree 100% that prediction markets are the wild-wild-west with no insider trading protections, pump and dump, and no oversight. It’s perverting the wisdom of the crowd and efficient market thesis.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#123

Post by tomtomtom777 » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 1:40 AM UTC

nodesocket wrote: post #111

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such…

Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.

Wow. I am not sure how to respond to this as you seem to have a completely different mindset. You mean to say it is "proven" not to be a solid strategy as in not maximizing profit?

Surely, you acknowledge that funding something is a rather direct way of actively supporting it. It is your money and your choice of what you choose to invest it in, and thus how you choose to shape the future. If you buy OIL to make money, you are still responsible for the additional investment made in oil, and are still shaping the future, whether you like it or not.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#124

Post by zeofig » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 1:48 AM UTC

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

I agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#125

Post by afavour » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 1:51 AM UTC

zeofig wrote: post #124

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

I agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.

Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#126

Post by tomtomtom777 » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 2:02 AM UTC

trhway wrote: post #120

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such…

>you're opening incentives for people to do so how about short-selling of stocks, isn't it the same thing? I'd even argue that sinking one ship affects say 10 people of the crew who most probable will survive in the warm Gulf waters whereis sinking a company may affect many people life outcomes probably causing a number of indirect deaths. CDS of 2008 would be similar example. >buying OIL or Palantir is morally quest…

> how about short-selling of stocks, isn't it the same thing?

Yes. That's why it's illegal to short-sell your stocks just before you announce that your company is broke.

There are no such regulations when betting on a bomb dropping on a boat.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#127

Post by furyofantares » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC

afavour wrote: post #125

zeofig wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree polymarket is "bad", but it's also highly relevant and should absolutely be included in this web page.

Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.

I've spent years watching prediction markets and finding them to be, by a wide margin, the most accurate way for me to understand the world. It is not remotely close.

It sucks that they're going mainstream, providing incentives to bad actors to profit from their power, and it sucks that they've gone so heavily for the predatory gambling market to boot.

I really hate this duality.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#128

Post by FpUser » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 2:09 AM UTC

HiroProtagonist wrote: post #83

roncesvalles wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The capability is very real. And they don't have to sink the ship, just one Shahed drone exploding on the deck and injuring/killing a sailor is deterrence enough.

The Shahed drone is a 'set it and forget it' device where you program a stationary target and launch it. It would not work well for moving targets, like ships.

Russia has been modifying Shahed drones for quite a while. May be they've shared back or Iran got creative on their own

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#129

Post by voidfunc » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

People don't matter, only outcomes

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#130

Post by verdverm » Thu, Apr 09, 2026, 2:20 AM UTC

furyofantares wrote: post #127

afavour wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it highly relevant? It’s a bunch of people betting on the outcome.

I've spent years watching prediction markets and finding them to be, by a wide margin, the most accurate way for me to understand the world. It is not remotely close. It sucks that they're going mainstream, providing incentives to bad actors to profit from their power, and it sucks that they've gone so heavily for the predatory gambling market to boot. I really hate this duality.

> the most accurate way for me to understand the world

Are you sure it's not survivorship bias or similar? I've seen multiple trend lines that are very confident only to switch to the opposite outcome at the very end.