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Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

ishormuzopenyet.com

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Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#111

Post by nodesocket »

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #100
nodesocket wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such…

Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#112

Post by femiagbabiaka »

anonfunction wrote: post #74
foresterre wrote: post #71

According to the Financial Times (1), the straight is "open" but Iran is extorting fees for passing ships. > "Iran will demand that shipping companies pay tolls in cryptocurrency for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, as it seeks to retain control over passage through the key waterway during the two-week ceasefire." If they really will start doing so for all shipping, that would be odd since the straig…

It's super hard to tell what's actually happening. Because I've seen other reports that Iran state media halted traffic earlier today, as reported by Washington Post[1]: > With Trump and Iran each claiming victory, but still far apart on key issues, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained at a standstill Wednesday. 1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/04/08/trump-iran-w...

That's because Israel killed hundreds of civilians in Lebanon today.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#113

Post by antonvs »

nodesocket wrote: post #87
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

Why would you not? Unless you literally don't care about damaging our planet and civilization in the interests of your own personal profit.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#114

Post by antonvs »

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #86
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it would be if everyone betting wouldn't have an influence on the outcome. That's "wisdom of the crowds". But what if the people putting money on the Strait being closed are the same that close them? Surely, that's no longer the wisdom of the crowds at play. Just perverse incentives.

I agree. Maybe an un-expected outcome. Who could have foreseen that a government/person would actually blatantly start a war, and manipulate bombing raids in order to manipulate a market, without being charged with a crime himself. In sports betting, it seems obvious if a player throws a game. In a war? Surely nobody would do this, right? Who could imagine it.

> Who could have foreseen

Economists. They even have a term for this, dating back to the late 1800s: "moral hazard".

Polymarket creates moral hazard when participants can profit from outcomes they can influence.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#115

Post by broken-kebab »

isubkhankulov wrote: post #104
mvdtnz wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil futures or any other commodity purchase that doesn't result in the buyer taking actual physical ownership of what they purchase is an obscene gambling market with perverse incentives yes correct.

How will commodity producers (oil companies, farmers) hedge their risk / stabilize their prices without speculators and their “perverse incentives”?

We will gather special people, very wise, and completely honest. They'll form a committee, and we will call it Gosplan, comrade!

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#116

Post by sharmajai »

nodesocket wrote: post #111
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such…

Shaping the future for “good” is not investing. That is ESG and if you value capital and capital appreciation ESG has been proven not to be a solid strategy. See also altruistic capitalism with such moral people as Sam Bankman-Fried, Elizabeth Holmes, Trevor Milton and Adam Neumann. Solid list of moral people shaping the future.

Who said investing is _only_ for "capital and capital appreciation"? It can also be for social good.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#117

Post by colechristensen »

DaedalusII wrote: post #110
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

why dont UK start enforcing the Marine Insurance Act 1745 to combat this or the Life insurance act maybe 1775 this law literally make it illegal to gamble on marine risk that you do not have direct economic interest in

Are they? Is there a prediction market available in the UK which allows you to place these bets? They're regulated like gambling there.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#118

Post by auntienomen »

nodesocket wrote: post #87
tomtomtom777 wrote: post #78

This is a nice overview, but please remove the PolyMarket indicator. It is an obscene prediction mechanism as it creates horrible financial incentives to a war situation. Its degenerate effects have been featured here before. [1] Let's not condone "measurements" that are effectively ways for people to gain money on important political decisions, affecting the lives of many people. (1) https://news.ycombinator.com/ite…

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

The problem with prediction markets is fundamentally that they're unregulated.

Modern equities and futures markets are highly evolved and rather carefully regulated systems. We've spent centuries learning what the failure modes are and how to guard against them. It's never perfect, it's never going to be perfect -- it's fundamentally a voting system -- but in general, we get liquidity and price discovery at a relatively low cost, while avoiding fraudulent and evil behavior like wash trading and criminal profit laundering.

These new "prediction markets" have been put in place without any of those hard-earned protections. And surprise, they're rife with dirty trick and dirty money.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#119

Post by colechristensen »

antonvs wrote: post #113
nodesocket wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

Why would you not? Unless you literally don't care about damaging our planet and civilization in the interests of your own personal profit.

At this point efficient pricing of energy is a strong motivator for environmental causes. Solar is ridiculously cheaper than fossil fuels and not subject to geopolitical risk. And once you have solar panels you've got energy for decades.

Carbon-related environmentalism and greed now go hand in hand.

Re: Show HN: Is Hormuz open yet?

#120

Post by trhway »

tomtomtom777 wrote: post #100
nodesocket wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By this logic would you also consider trading OIL (USO) and Palantir a "obscene" market.

Actually yes. I put my money in things I would like to see shape the future, which I think is what investment should be about: shaping the future. But disregarding this admittedly niche attitude; it's not the same thing. If you're opening bets on the ships being bombed before a certain date, you're opening incentives for people to do so. Although buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such…

>you're opening incentives for people to do so

how about short-selling of stocks, isn't it the same thing? I'd even argue that sinking one ship affects say 10 people of the crew who most probable will survive in the warm Gulf waters whereis sinking a company may affect many people life outcomes probably causing a number of indirect deaths. CDS of 2008 would be similar example.

>buying OIL or Palantir is morally questionable, it does not create such direct incentives

it creates direct incentives to suppress competitors - wind and solar energy for OIL, and whoever Palantir competitors are.

Wrt. "Hormuz open" - does the "open" definition includes the new fee Iran would be taking for the strait traverse (something like $1/barrel, nice for Iran, how come that they had't implemented such an idea before? one can only wonder)

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