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ML promises to be profoundly weird

aphyr.com

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Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#31

The recent article of Sam Altman described pretty much as a compulsive liar. Would it be any surprise if his most impactful contribution to the world was a machine that compulsively lies?

He sought to create God in his image, that's a narcissist's wet dream.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#32
post #14

I get the frustration, but it's reductive to just call LLMs "bullshit machines" as if the models are not improving. The current flagship models are not perfect, but if you use GPT-2 for a few minutes, it's incredible how much the industry has progressed in seven years. It's true that people don't have a good intuitive sense of what the models are good or bad at (see: counting the Rs in "strawberry"), but this is more…

Computer graphics have been improving for decades but the uncanny valley remains undefeated. I don't know why anyone expects a breakthrough in other areas. There's a wall we hit and we don't understand our own consciousness and effectiveness well enough to replicate it.

We have credible deepfakes on demand. (To be fair, there have been deceptive photos as long as photos have existed, but the cost of automating their creation going to basically zero has a social impact)

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#33
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether LLMs can create correct content doesn't matter. We've already seen how they are being used and will be used. Fake content and lies. To drive outrage. To influence elections. To distract from real crimes. To overload everyone so they're too tired to fight or to understand. To weaken the concept that anything's true so that you can say anything. Because who cares if the world dies as long as you made lots of mo…

> Because who cares if the world dies as long as you made lots of money on the way. Guiding principle of the AI industry

It's really the whole tech industry as it exists right now and AI is a victim of bad timing. If this AI had been invented 40 years ago there'd have been a lower ceiling on the damage it could do.

Another way of saying that is that capitalism is the real problem, but I was never anti-capitalist in principle, it's just gotten out of hand in the last 5-10 years. (Not that it hadn't been building to that.)

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#35
post #28

Some people point at LLMs confabulating, as if this wasn’t something humans are already widely known for doing. I consider it highly plausible that confabulation is inherent to scaling intelligence. In order to run computation on data that due to dimensionality is computationally infeasible, you will most likely need to create a lower dimensional representation and do the computation on that. Collapsing the dimension…

Yes, and to me the evolution of life sure looks like an evolution of more truthful models of the universe in service of energy profit. Better model -> better predictions -> better profit.

I'm extremely skeptical that all of life evolved intelligence to be closer to truth only for us to digitize intelligence and then have the opposite happen. Makes no sense.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#36

The recent article of Sam Altman described pretty much as a compulsive liar. Would it be any surprise if his most impactful contribution to the world was a machine that compulsively lies?

How could it be that we humans hardly even agree on what "knowledge" truly is, yet somehow this machine learning algorithm somehow "compulsively lies"? How would it even know what is a lie, and how could something lacking autonomy in the first place do anything compulsively?

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#37
post #28

Some people point at LLMs confabulating, as if this wasn’t something humans are already widely known for doing. I consider it highly plausible that confabulation is inherent to scaling intelligence. In order to run computation on data that due to dimensionality is computationally infeasible, you will most likely need to create a lower dimensional representation and do the computation on that. Collapsing the dimension…

And is that considered a feature of humans or a bug?

Is it something we want to emulate?

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#38
post #28

Some people point at LLMs confabulating, as if this wasn’t something humans are already widely known for doing. I consider it highly plausible that confabulation is inherent to scaling intelligence. In order to run computation on data that due to dimensionality is computationally infeasible, you will most likely need to create a lower dimensional representation and do the computation on that. Collapsing the dimension…

Yes see Karl Frisstons Free energy principle

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrn2787

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two things can be true at the same time: The technology has improved, and the technology in its current state still isn't fit for purpose. I stress test commercially deployed LLMs like Gemini and Claude with trivial tasks: sports trivia, fixing recipes, explaining board game rules, etc. It works well like 95% of the time. That's fine for inconsequential things. But you'd have to be deeply irresponsible to accept that…

> the technology in its current state still isn't fit for purpose. This is a broad statement that assumes we agree on the purpose. For my purpose, which is software development, the technology has reached a level that is entirely adequate. Meanwhile, sports trivia represents a stress test of the model's memorized world knowledge. It could work really well if you give the model a tool to look up factual information in…

There's nothing in these models that say its purpose is software development. Their design and affordances scream out "use me for anything." The marketing certainly matches that, so do the UIs, so do the behaviors. So I take them at their word, and I see that failure modes are shockingly common even under regular use. I'm not out to break these things at all. I'm being as charitable and empirical as I can reasonably be.

If the purpose is indeed software development with review, then there's nothing stopping multi-billion dollar companies from putting friction into these sytems to direct users towards where the system is at its strongest.

Re: ML promises to be profoundly weird

#40
post #28

Some people point at LLMs confabulating, as if this wasn’t something humans are already widely known for doing. I consider it highly plausible that confabulation is inherent to scaling intelligence. In order to run computation on data that due to dimensionality is computationally infeasible, you will most likely need to create a lower dimensional representation and do the computation on that. Collapsing the dimension…

The concern for me about LLMs confabulating is not that humans don't do it. It's that the massive scale at which LLMs will inevitably be deployed makes even the smallest confabulation extremely risky.
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