US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire • Hacker News Board

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#691

Post by datsci_est_2015 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:33 AM UTC

locknitpicker wrote: post #638

jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

> (...) another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. I'm afraid you are yet to experience the real impact of this war. The actual effect of closing the strait hasn't hit your wallet yet. It's a repeat of the same old tariff bullshit. Also, Iran did inflicted heavy damage on some of the infrastructure of US's allies. You will start to fe…

“Mild commodity price increases” - I’ll try to remember the OP’s comment in July.

Inflation tends to be a ratchet, not a wave. But that’s too complicated for the below-average voter…

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#692

Post by refurb » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:36 AM UTC

chasd00 wrote: post #335

mgfist wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes, so basically Iran gets everything it wants. It paid a heavy price for it, but it would get so much out of this. At pre war ship rates, that toll would be ~$90B per year ($45B if split half with Oman). Iran's government generates something like $40B in income, so this would be absolutely monumental.

Posts like this from the HN community are almost surreal. Any review of the actual deal would show a two week ceasefire in exchange for the strait being open and safe while negotiations continue. This 10 point plan is just a place to start talking, no country has agreed to anything on it. How is this missed on the community here?

Welcome to HN where users with little domain knowledge make comments of utter certainty about any topic under the sun.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#693

Post by thisisit » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:37 AM UTC

_heimdall wrote: post #647

thisisit wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say more like a loss for the US than a win for Iran. > 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. Everyone knew from the beginning that closing the strait was something Iran would do. But it is current US government that is either inept or too smart for…

> thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use I have to assume that at least someone in the room was well aware that all oil is not created equal and that US refineries were designed from the beginning for Venezuelan and similar oil rather than US oil.

That's why I said either inept or too smart for their own good because closing of the strait was a real threat before the war and was ignored, leading to the tweet on Easter.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#694

Post by westpfelia » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:39 AM UTC

emkoemko wrote: post #579

woah wrote: post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> much younger and more formidable Khameini Formidable?

more crazy then his father is what i hear

guy has spent his whole life being labeled as a monster simply for being born. I'm sure that causes a guy to develop some sort of complex.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#695

Post by misja111 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:40 AM UTC

megamike wrote: post #31

Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran t…

Where did you get those points from? Do you have a source? The 10 points I've read in the media are different, e.g. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/04/08/what-is-i...

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#696

Post by jatora » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:41 AM UTC

swat535 wrote: post #352

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

1. Nuclear sites are not "in rubble", uranium is very much intact. They attempted to extract some of it with the failed F15 mission and had to scrap it (oversight by CIA) near Isfahan. 2. Leadership KIA doesn't matter, IRAN has a decentralized leadership, not a top down one. 3. Military apparatus is intact, majority of missile cities are still operating, over 1M IRGC forces mobilized with many more men willing to sig…

yikes

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#697

Post by citrin_ru » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:41 AM UTC

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

> is an impotent threat of attacking ships?

It not that impotent. Attacking civilan targets in the age of drones is not that hard - a small motor boat with explosives or a shahed style drone is all you need. And to keep the strait closed they don't need to attack all ships. Even 0.1% probability of an attack (maybe even 0.01%) is enough to halt the traffic. And they don't need to sink the ship - a fire on board is enough to create an unacceptable security risk for tankers and LNG carriers.

It was a while since Houthis attacked any ships and yet traffic via Suez is still 60% down from what is was befor attacks started in 2023. Because the risk of an attack is not zero.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#698

Post by leonidasrup » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:42 AM UTC

nicbou wrote: post #631

tristanj wrote: post #612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…

They did not manage to bomb Germany, North Korea, or North Vietnam into submission and they tried for years. Winning through bombing alone has never worked.

Do not underestimate the effects of modern precision bombing, the technology moved forward (especially if we compare it with II. world war). Today it's much easier to destroy any kind of infrastructure, power plants, bridges, dams, water preparation facilities, waste treatment, cement, steel production, food silos, fuel storage, vehicle manufacturing, etc.

This is very important because, population in cities is much more dependent on infrastructure, than rural population. Rural population is mostly self sufficient. Over 60% of Iranians live today in cities, but under 20% of Vietnamese lived in cities at the time of Vietnam war. Vietnam was also strongly supported by China, with transportation using Laos and Cambodian.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-population-livin...

Iran is even now under sever water crisis.

https://www.wri.org/insights/iran-war-water-crisis-middle-ea...

So a large scale bombing of all Iranian infrastructure would probable not cause the fall of the regime, because they have the guns and can take anything they want, but the suffering and famine of Iranian people would be enormous.

Sometimes large scale bombing causes submission, for example fire-bombing of Japanese cities (atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was in the scale of destruction and loss of life comparable to Tokyo fire bombing, only much cheaper in the number of airplanes).

https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/d01171/

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#699

Post by mrtksn » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:46 AM UTC

jayd16 wrote: post #595

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

That's not a US specific strength though, anybody with the ability to strike someone with shorter range than theirs can do that. I.e. Netherland can destabilize South America through attacking Panama and its very unlikely that Netherlands will be bombed.

Sure, when US Brazil etc. are pissed off enough, Netherland can just TACO like the US did.

China and Russia can do the exactly same thing to Iran too and Iran won't be bombing Moscow or Beijing either.

It might demonstrate madness though, which in same cases can be useful.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#700

Post by jojocool0501 » Wed, Apr 08, 2026, 6:48 AM UTC

karim79 wrote: post #614

This is Israel's "business as usual" stuff. Mowing the lawn, fake ceasefire, distraction, expansion and greater Israel project let's go! stuff. Stretch goal is to make Iran a failed state. Primary goal is distraction from the very real annexation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, one war crime at a time.

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