Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

671–680 of 1001 posts

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#671

Post by myvoiceismypass »

jayd16 wrote: post #595
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

The $2m toll per strait crossing, at 120 ships a day, is going to pay dividends in perpetuity for them. Their economic situation is now actually better than it was pre-war.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#673

Post by mcntsh »

blix wrote: post #466
computerex wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars are about objectives. The USA managed to accomplish none of its objectives. Iran forced USA to concede and call for ceasefire before US could achieve objectives. That’s the definition of defeat. Iran won by not losing and holding out. Iran has more leverage at the end of this war than it did at the start. Iran has proven that it has the capability to catastrophically disrupt global economy.

What action can Iran take today that they couldn't take a year ago? No one who has been paying attention should be surprised that Iran can shut down the straight. It has been a known factor for decades. They have less leverage. The have so much less that they are forced to openly use their last and most powerful card for their survival, when they never have had to before. That is a position of weakness, not strength.

> What action can Iran take today that they couldn’t take a year ago?

Remove of sanctions, ability to monitize traffic through the strait, guarantees against aggression and a cessation of military bases in their region. IMO, a much stronger position than they were in a year ago.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#674

Post by jayd16 »

ElProlactin wrote: post #663
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

> I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Oil spiked over 40% at its peak and US gas prices are up 25-35%, and that's before things got to the point where there were "real" supply issues. I don't know how you can reasonably consider this "mild". > Actually it shows that the US could eliminate t…

Not really in disagreement with any of this. I'm just pushing back on "this is a win for Iran".

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#675

Post by citrin_ru »

_heimdall wrote: post #647
thisisit wrote: post #639

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say more like a loss for the US than a win for Iran. > 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if anyone messes with them they’ll close the straight. Then gas prices go up. Then your own domestic pop gets pissed. Then your chances of re-election drop. Everyone knew from the beginning that closing the strait was something Iran would do. But it is current US government that is either inept or too smart for…

> thought with US producing surplus oil for domestic use I have to assume that at least someone in the room was well aware that all oil is not created equal and that US refineries were designed from the beginning for Venezuelan and similar oil rather than US oil.

Even if US refineries were designed for US oil to keep domestic prices low one would have to introduce export restrictions because oil is a global commondity. Big oil will not be happy about that and it seems they have a great influence over the respublican party and Trump.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#676

Post by 7952 »

tristanj wrote: post #612
holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

I disagree. Iran was about to lose. If this ceasefire had not happened, the US and Israel would bomb all of Iran's electricity and fuel facilities. That's what was supposed to happen today, and is what forced Iran to the negotiating table with an hour to spare. Without electricity, there is no modern life. There is no ability to communicate, pay salaries, run a business, have running water, etc. Without fuel, there a…

The Iranian military is very decentralised and designed specifically with American capabilities in mind. So am not sure they would collapse. And a defending force is far less dependent on logistics in the short term. Also, Iran has a culture of sacrifice.

Iran and the US exist in a state of equilibrium of opposite strategies. The US is unwilling to risk its troops and sees sacrifice as weakness but otherwise applies maximal pressure. And Iran is willing to sacrifice its citizens and sees that as noble. And outside of a black swan event there is little hope of change.

Each side sees its enemies greatest military strength as a moral weakness and will keep fighting. Whilst conversely believing that sacrifice/maximal remote force may someday work. Iranians are not going to pivot because their culture has been forged as a response to exactly this kind of pressure. Nor will America suddenly see the sacrifices of thousands of it's men as virtuous. So things probably just revert back to the same equilibrium.

The point is that America blowing up power plants and Iran absorbing casualties is just an extension of the status quo.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#677

Post by delis-thumbs-7e »

smcnc wrote: post #237

I don’t see how the majority of comments paint this as a victory for Iran. Your entire formal military apparatus was destroyed, nuclear sites in rubble, defense industrial complex leveled, two levels of leadership KIA, and the only thing preventing you from permanent destruction or regime change is an impotent threat of attacking ships? I guess I’m missing something. War sucks but in this case Iran is a shell of the…

Stop watching Fox. You are completely misinformed on global politics.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#678

Post by maxglute »

holografix wrote: post #554

This is basically a win for Iran. 1. They replaced the decrepit Khameini with a much younger and more formidable Khameini. 2. “Pulled a Ukraine” vs the US showing defiance and have now rallied any wavering regime supporters against the American and Jewish “devils”. 3. Reminded the anti regime population that they’re not going anywhere and that the US can’t help them. 4. Showed everyone in the ME and the world that if…

More loss for US, as in customary US not winning fast is functionally the same as losing.

Heavy weight boxing a teen it should have brained in round 1.

Teen lands a few punches back is embarrassing.

Teen slapping heavy weights protectorates more embarrassing.

Teen surviving week 4 is like heavy weight failing to brain teen by round 7.

At this point it's looking like we're going to round 10 TKO, whoever "wins", US loses. People still going to wank over if US wins on TKO because muh K:D ratio or something, but real signal is teen's strategy was to survive hits and ultimately 10000s of heavy weight hits weren't haymaker strong enough to brain a teen. At >2% of GDP of PRC, Iran is basically teen/toddler territory that drew down significant % of US active force and munition stockpiles, so there's also layer of US losing more based on relative effort expended.

Re: US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire

#679

Post by pixelesque »

myvoiceismypass wrote: post #671
jayd16 wrote: post #595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm no fan of this administration but another way to look at things is that the US can essentially destabilize a region while facing mild commodity price increases. Actually it shows that the US could eliminate the leadership at its leisure even if it can't hand select the replacements. I'm also not sure the powers that be in the ME hate the rising oil prices. Again, not a fan of the situation and while I think it is…

The $2m toll per strait crossing, at 120 ships a day, is going to pay dividends in perpetuity for them. Their economic situation is now actually better than it was pre-war.

$2 split between Iran and Oman...
Post reply on HN