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Bitcoin and quantum computing

nehanarula.org

91–100 of 147 posts

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#91

"A CRQC is an existential threat to Bitcoin (you might believe this is very low-likehood). Your measurement of this threat should literally be: (A) How likely you think it is a CRQC appears by a given time, multiplied by (B) How likely it is you think Bitcoin will not successfully upgrade by that time." It would interesting to survey people about their answers. My off the cuff answer is: 2030: A=0.05, B=0.01 2035: A=…

I'm skeptical that B is fully possible. You can create a PQ fork of bitcoin but you cannot automatically bring vulnerable wallets along - and there are a lot of vulnerable wallets, especially from the early days. There's a catastrophe ahead for bitcoin with an apparent probability of 1.0. That's hard to account for in this scheme.

I would argue that the hackers will do the jobs of transferring funds from insecure wallets to secure ones very efficiently.

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#92
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only way to authenticate who owns what coins is with signatures Maybe the only fully cryptographic absolutely zero-trust way? In practice there are very few bitcoin outputs that aren't linked to an offline identity and most users could easily produce a proof of ownership. Of course, this is not ideal and everyone would prefer not to go down that route. But even if we prepare in time and Bitcoin provides a quant…

> In practice there are very few bitcoin outputs that aren't linked to an offline identity and most users could easily produce a proof of ownership. Any who is going to in charge of reading that proof of identity and moving the coins? A trusted centralized party? The point of Bitcoin is to avoid exactly that sort of trust relationship, otherwise use the banking system. > Satoshi's wallet alone could crash Bitcoin's v…

> Any who is going to in charge of reading that proof of identity and moving the coins? A trusted centralized party?

Basically you'd have to relax the trust/decentralization guarantees, but you don't have to relax them all the way. Most likely a consortium of trusted actors (Blockstream, major miners, major exchanges, bitcoin-adjacent companies,...). Or something like a consensus mechanism with aligned incentives a la Kleros. I think "we" could come up with "something", even if it is not perfect, because the value of Bitcoin is ultimately in the community of people who use Bitcoin, not just the protocol.

"Hard-fork" might not be the right way to see this. It's more like starting a completely new protocol where people who held Bitcoin at a certain snapshot can redeem a one-time airdrop equivalent to the value they held, provided they can prove ownership. As that protocol's value overtakes the value of the original Bitcoin chain (which will eventually be completely dead), we can all agree to call it Bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone happen to know if it is settled law in the United States that transferring bitcoins using a cracked key is a criminal act? It’s not immediately obvious to me that it would be covered by the CFAA.

I would be surprised if the U.S. legal system requires itself to list every possible mechanism by which someone might steal money.

"Darn it, he's right, there's nothing in the rules here saying a dog can't play basketball or fetch money out of a bank vault..."

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#94
post #67
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't your bank balance in a bank database also "just a number"? That number still exists if it goes up or down. I understand that the bank's ownership of its computer means that hacking into it could be seen as (for example) a trespass. However, what if you somehow persuaded a bank employee to change someone's balance? The bank employee has some kind of authority to do this and the result is once again "just a numbe…

> Isn't your bank balance in a bank database also "just a number"? Absolutely not, but also "yes, which means no". In the first case, a bank balance isn't "just" a number, it's a massively regulated and legally backed number with many layers of interlocking entities, both private and multiple layers of government, in charge of maintenance, auditing, insuring, and enforcing. There is no equivalency to cryptocurrency t…

> Holy shit are you for real? COULD be seen? Yes hacking into a bank would absolutely mean felony prosecution on multiple counts if you were caught.

I meant to refer specifically to the trespass theory (advocated about 25-30 years ago by some companies as a way to enforce terms of service) as a reason one might attempt to distinguish "changing a number on company X's computer" from "changing a number in a distributed database". That is, there might be legal theories that are more protective of individual companies' computers just because the physical computers belong to the companies as opposed to information-in-general.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trespass_to_chattels#Early_app...

However, other forms of computer crime law can protect information-in-general, regardless of where it's stored or by whom.

My point was that existing laws have been happy to punish changing numbers on computers based on the meanings that those numbers have to people, what people act as though those numbers represent. I believe some of these laws are drafted broadly enough that they already treat stealing cryptocurrency as illegal. Even if legislators didn't consciously regulate it this way, courts may conclude that concepts of fraud, property, conversion, etc., already apply to cryptocurrency systems, even if there isn't an obvious technical difference between a transfer intentionally authorized by a human owner and a transfer authorized as a result of fraud, hacking, bugs, etc.

I understand that in, say, Bitcoin, "ownership" of assets stored in a UTXO is implemented only as the ability to cause a transaction that consumes that UTXO, and that this ability doesn't refer to a person's name or identity, or to good or evil, or to the reason that someone caused such a transaction, or to how someone came to possess the necessary information to create it. The blockchain consensus is updated based on whether the transaction followed certain deterministic rules, and concepts like "the owner" do not in fact appear directly anywhere in those rules. However, this doesn't stop a court from saying that some such transactions represent fraud or conversion or something while others don't, even though the transactions in question were equally valid according to the blockchain consensus.

I understand that there's uncertainty and debate in the cryptocurrency world about how we should want legal systems to regulate or not regulate cryptocurrency, remedy or not remedy otherwise-wrongful actions committed via cryptocurrency systems, and enforce or not enforce agreements implemented in or through cryptocurrencies. I also think you're right to point out that there's an issue about whether the content or behavior of the code is, or is meant to be, the "entire agreement" among parties using it, or whether it just somehow reflects other kinds of relationships that are also partly enforced by legal systems.

I currently work on smart contracts for a living. I find the question of how legal systems should view them fascinating, and I don't have a clearly articulated position on it.

Edit: I'd again like to point to Kremen v. Cohen as an analogy. In that case there was a privately (sort of) created database of domain name registrations. There weren't specific laws or regulations created to describe how the courts should view domain name ownership. The defendant in that case fraudulently caused a domain name to be transferred from the plaintiff to the defendant. The courts agreed that the domain name was "property" and that the defendant could be sued for this, again even though there was no specific legislation regulating the domain name industry. Now, many people are unhappy about various ways that the legal systems of various countries try to control and regulate domain name ownership and transfer. I know people who've worked on naming systems that are explicitly meant to be harder for governments to regulate.

Still, when courts looked at the original DNS decades ago, none of these forms of queasiness about the government's role stopped the courts from concluding that domain names were property based on their characteristics and use, and that people could be sued for fraudulently taking domain names away from other people.

It seems like you might be perceiving a kind of hypocrisy in the notion of people wanting to deliberately create things that are harder to regulate, and then still sometimes involving the courts in disputes over them.

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#95
post #11

As was alluded to in the comments, my colleagues at Blockstream Research are doing some work on this with mechanisms called SHRINCS and SHRIMPS. Of course, inventing and demonstrating a quantum-resistant signature mechanism isn't the same thing as deploying it in consensus or upgrading everyone's UTXOs to it, and it's fair to say that there are many steps in between!

[dead]

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#96
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that B is fully possible. You can create a PQ fork of bitcoin but you cannot automatically bring vulnerable wallets along - and there are a lot of vulnerable wallets, especially from the early days. There's a catastrophe ahead for bitcoin with an apparent probability of 1.0. That's hard to account for in this scheme.

I would argue that the hackers will do the jobs of transferring funds from insecure wallets to secure ones very efficiently.

It would still tank the price. Right now many Bitcoins are lost because no one holds the keys any more. When they can hack it, suddenly the sell pressure significantly goes up.

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#98

ETH is not afraid of doing hard forks, so I'm expecting that they will lead in adopting post quantum cryptography. And then BTC ecosystem participants can learn from ETH.

even if btc does a hard fork, you'll need to "reshim" the encryption on each wallet. and you can only do (n) tx per block. and only 1 blocks per unit time. this limits the speed of bitcoin moving to PQC, it must take at leaat ~3 years iirc

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked into it and the currently leading proposal: Hourglass v2 is pretty clever. Once 'Hourglass' is enabled, the rate at which legacy (P2PK) coins can be spent is (proposed to be) capped at 1btc / block. Thus they will not be burned, but the rate at which they can be stolen/compromised will be limited such that the economic impact is at most about 1/3 the block reward. This gives holders of those old addresses th…

Doesn’t this effectively still destroy all legacy wallets? Once the throttling limit goes into effect, it will be impossible for holders of legacy wallets to transfer their bitcoin without paying ~1 bitcoin per bitcoin they want to move. Doesn’t this amount to the same thing as abolishing all legacy wallets plus increasing the mining reward with extra steps?

Not necessarily, we could reach a point where theoretically it is possible to crack elliptic curve but still prohibitively expensive except for nation states. At that point or near that point, miners would likely agree to engage the throttle.

Presumably the vast majority who had their key would move the coins before the throttling takes effect so in the event of a 'slow takeoff' quantum scenario where quantum computing is expensive or nation states don't want to divulge the capability there could be no demand for the 1btc slot. If a lucky individual forgot about their coins (likely an early 50btc block), it only takes them ~8hrs to transfer at the normal txn fee.

Only those with access to legacy coins can compete for that slot.

The main advantage is it delays the transfer to the mining reward to the last possible moment, IE the trigger for the transfer to the mining reward likely only happens if there is sufficient contention for that 1btc slot because legacy wallets are getting cracked.

Re: Bitcoin and quantum computing

#100
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency gains are taxable in many (most?) countries. Clearly the governments see cryptocurrency as something more than just random numbers without meaning. Likewise, when government agencies shut down dark net markets (DNMs), they will seize the cryptocurrency funds that the DNM had (from market fees etc., or even funds that belonged to customers and were in escrow etc. by the DNM) if they can (i.e. if they ge…

> Cryptocurrency gains are taxable in many (most?) countries. So? > Clearly the governments see cryptocurrency as something more than just random numbers without meaning. Not really? It's the realized gains that get taxed. That's a completely generic feature of the tax system, the government doesn't give a shit (and shouldn't) what people decide has value in any given transaction. The only thing they care about is wh…

> You "think not"? Why not? What laws do you think are being violated?

Actually we have real world examples of this very sort of thing: someone stealing cryptocurrency from a government agency seizure using the publicly knowable private keys for a wallet. No quantum computer was even involved, just plain old human error.

In South Korea this year, a government agency released pictures of a physical seizure that included written down mnemonic seed phrase.

The funds were then stolen, using that seed phrase.

And then:

> A Korean National Police Agency official said at a press briefing on the 3rd that "the first thief submitted a confession to the Cybercrime Reporting System on the 28th of last month, so on the 1st we arrested the person based on that and are tracking the secondary thief."

https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-society/2026/03/03/2HRCGVESIZBT...

So there you have it. The government in South Korea considered this a theft. An arrest was made. Investigations were made.

It is so very obvious that this is what would happen when you steal cryptocurrency from the government. Even when the government agency itself was the one to accidentally publish the private keys so that they became public knowledge.

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